One of the biggest matchups of the season kicks off tonight with College GameDay in Provo for this unbeaten clash, and our Notre Dame vs. BYU AI picks favor the No. 2 Fighting Irish against the No. 8 Cougars at 7:30 pm ET (ABC) from LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Our model projects a 28-21 Notre Dame win as part of our college football AI predictions for Week 7, putting us on BYU +10.5 and Over 47.5. Below, we break down our game picks and anytime touchdown selection, then compare our ATS pick with the Covers projections and expert pick for this matchup.
Notre Dame vs BYU AI picks
Win probability courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; odds may vary.
Notre Dame vs BYU AI prediction
SAT · 7:30 pm ET · ABC
Win probability based on marketMore analysis
BYU can lose its unbeaten record and still cover this number. Our 28-21 forecast leaves 3.5 points of room at +10.5, but LJ Martin’s absence makes the Cougars’ offense the biggest concern. Rob Paul’s Notre Dame vs. BYU prediction backs the Irish -10.5, with their fourth-ranked rushing success rate on defense central to his case. Bear Bachmeier gives BYU another way to move the ball: he threw for 329 yards and ran for 109 against Iowa State last week. His ability to create through the air and on the ground is crucial to reaching the 21 points in our forecast.
The Over 47.5 has less room to spare, with our projected total landing at 49. Jonaz Walton’s 301 rushing yards over his last two games give Notre Dame another threat alongside CJ Carr, and Jason Ence targets Walton’s rushing production in his Notre Dame vs. BYU props. That balance should help the Irish sustain drives, but this pick still needs BYU to contribute. If Notre Dame contains Bachmeier and the Cougars struggle to replace Martin’s production, the total could fall short even in an Irish win.
Notre Dame vs BYU AI touchdown pick
Notre Dame vs BYU picks comparison
Here’s how our AI spread pick compares with the Covers projections and Rob Paul’s expert pick. Each selection retains its source’s published line; the pick boxes link to Kalshi.
| AI model | Covers projections | Covers expertBy Rob Paul |
|---|---|---|
| BYU+10.5 | BYU+10.5 | ND-10.5 |
Both models favor Notre Dame outright but take BYU +10.5, while Paul backs the Irish to cover. The Covers projections have Notre Dame winning 29.33-19.82, compared with our 28-21 forecast.
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How our college football AI predictions work
We forecast college football scores with the project’s custom Bayesian model. It uses past game results, distinct ratings for each team’s offense and defense, home-field effects, and the scoring patterns found in college football. This matchup carries forward our published Week 7 forecast.
Each score projection is locked before we compare it with the selected full-game spread and total to derive the ATS and Over/Under picks. Market prices do not change the forecast. We retain the original BYU +10.5 and Over 47.5 selections for this matchup.
Kalshi and ProphetX percentages reflect their markets, separate from our score forecast. The touchdown pick draws on player production and matchup analysis. We publicly track the published score predictions, ATS picks, and Over/Under selections against their original lines for every prediction each week.
