Halfway through the college football regular season, Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith is the runaway favorite in the Heisman Trophy odds race.
But heading into Week 7 last year, eventual Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza wasn't even among the three biggest favorites to take home the award. And Smith has maybe his most pivotal matchup of the season this week, against Mendoza's former team, Indiana.
Still, ahead of Week 7, I'm all in on Smith (my preseason Heisman pick), but there's another wide receiver catching my eye as a must-add to my Heisman Hedge Fund.
Latest Heisman Trophy odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Ahead of Week 7, Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith continues to climb the Heisman Trophy board.
Even with a quiet Week 6 by his standards (93 yards, two TDs) against a subpar Big Ten opponent (Maryland), Smith moved from a 49% probability of winning college football's top honor to 54%.
However, this week could make or break his Heisman case with the Buckeyes taking on the defending national champions on the road (Ohio State is a 3.5-point favorite).
If Smith continues his dominance against an Indiana defense ranked No. 4 by SP+, the Buckeyes' superstar could see his probability jump 10% or more.
After Indiana, Ohio State won't face another defense ranked in the top 15 by SP+ until its rivalry game against Michigan on the final day of the regular season.
The biggest threats to Smith becoming the first wide receiver to win the award without contributing at another position (running back/return man/defense) are Miami's Darian Mensah (12%) and Notre Dame's CJ Carr (8%).
Both are top four nationally in QBR, and their teams are among the college football national championship odds favorites. Assuming the Fighting Irish beat BYU on the road this weekend, both will likely be undefeated when Notre Dame and Miami meet on Nov. 7.
That matchup, and Smith's against Indiana, are two of the most important games to this year's Heisman race. But it's two unheralded recruits at non-blue-blood programs who stand out as the potential biggest Heisman risers ahead of Week 7.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Week 7 Heisman odds portfolio strategy
| Player, POS | Position |  Probability |
Action/price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jesse Legree, WR |
Buy | 3% | Yes (3¢) |
 Trinidad Chambliss, QB |
Sell | 6% | No (95¢) |
 Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Hold | 3% | Yes (current price: 3¢/purchase price: 2¢) |
| ❌ None | Penny stock | N/A% | N/A |
Buy: Jesse Legree, WR, Oregon State
- Kalshi probability: 3%
- 2026 stats: 38 receptions, 932 yards, 12 TDs
- Key metric: Third nationally in yards per route run (4.76)
- Week 7 opponent: vs. Washington State
Oregon State's Jesse Legree is finally on the board.
I wanted to add him last week at a penny stock price, but he was still unavailable. I don't even care that I have to pay a little more to add him this week; he's that good.
The freshman has been the best wide receiver in the country not named Jeremiah Smith this season. Yes, better than Malachi Toney and Charlie Becker and KJ Duff.
He leads the country in receiving yards, touchdown receptions, and YAC (425), while ranking Top 5 in receptions that have gone for either a first down or TD (34), yards per reception (24.5), and forced missed tackles on receptions (13).
He's the biggest out-of-nowhere breakout star of the season, making Oregon State a must-watch team each week and a potential Group of Six College Football Playoff contender.
From not on the radar to New York?
Legree was playing high school football at St. Frances Academy in Baltimore last year and wasn't a player Power Four programs in the DMV area wanted because of his size (5-foot-10, 172 pounds).
A two-way player, most of Legree's scholarship offers came from the FCS level, outside of Buffalo, Temple, and Oregon State.
But few head coaches know the wide receiver position as well as Oregon State's JaMarcus Shephard, who coached Alabama's wide receivers last year.
Bringing Legree to Corvallis was a home run, but not even Shephard could have known he would be a potential Heisman contender as a freshman.
And while non-power-conference schools rarely send players to New York (Ashton Jeanty is the only non-power-conference Heisman finalist since 2014), Legree has a real chance.
He hasn't had a game with fewer than 100 receiving yards this season (he's gone for 156+ in three games) and has scored 2+ TDs in four of his six games.
That includes major production against two ranked P4 opponents, Houston and Texas Tech (combined 12 receptions for 376 yards and three TDs against them).
Will Legree actually win the Heisman? No, but this price will keep rising at Kalshi, and then you can flip the contract for a profit. There aren't 10 better college football players than Legree right now.
Sell: Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss
- Kalshi probability: 4%
- 2026 stats: 1,435 passing yards, 16 total TDs, 4 INTs
- Key metric: 46th nationally in adjusted completion rate (75.2%)
- Week 7 opponent: vs. Missouri
Without a doubt, Trinidad Chambliss is one of the best players in college football and has a case as the best QB in the sport through the first half of the season. But Ole Miss' schedule has aged like milk.
The two wins that vaulted Chambliss up the Heisman board were against Louisville and LSU. Together, those programs are 7-5 now, with the Cardinals already dropping two ACC games and the Tigers coming off a loss to Kentucky.
Ole Miss' lone loss has aged even worse, with the Rebels falling 24-0 to a Florida team that's no longer ranked after being outscored 83-36 in losses to Missouri and South Carolina.
Now Ole Miss plays that Missouri team this week, and it doesn't get easier from there.
Dominant defenses ahead
Four of Chambliss' final seven opponents are currently ranked in the AP Top 25, and two of the three that aren't won't be easy outs (Auburn, Oklahoma). Of the Rebels' six FBS opponents left on their schedule, five of them have defenses ranked 17th or better by SP+.
It's only going to get tougher for Ole Miss, and I don't think the Rebels will win enough games for Chambliss to remain in the Heisman race.
Hold: Drew Mestemaker, QB, Oklahoma State
- Kalshi probability: 3%
- 2026 stats: 1,575 passing yards, 15 total TDs, 5 INTs
- Key metric: Top 10 in Power Four in big-time throw rate (6.7%)
- Week 7 opponent: at Houston
Oklahoma State has had a strange first half of the season. The Pokes opened the year with one of the most disappointing losses in college football (losing to Tulsa) and followed it up with one of September's most impressive upsets (beating Oregon).
That made Drew Mestemaker's Heisman shot tough to gauge, but over the last few weeks it's become clear that he and the rest of the North Texas transplants have settled into the Power Four level.
Big 12 & No. 1 pick contender
Oklahoma State is a legitimate Big 12 contender with how Mestemaker is playing, and he's building buzz as the top QB prospect in the 2027 NFL Draft class.
If he keeps up his play, he won't just be in the mix for the No. 1 pick; he'll push Mensah and Carr to the top of the Heisman board.
Mestemaker's arm talent and athleticism have made jaw-dropping throws look routine, and he's now posted a QBR of 83.2 or better for four straight games (he's coming off a season-high 94.3 QBR against UCF).
This week's road game against Houston could be the catalyst for his Heisman campaign, and if he continues what he's been doing since Week 2, an upset is possible (Oklahoma State is a 3.5-point underdog).
Either way, I expect his Heisman price to rise over the next few weeks.
Penny stock: None
Halfway through the college football season, there isn't much value in the Heisman race by buying the lowest-priced players.
Most of the players on the board that are priced at 1¢ or 2¢ that could rise and be flipped are already in my portfolio (Toney, Julian Sayin, Austin Simmons, Colin Simmons, Devon Dampier, Jadan Baugh), and at this point, it's too late in the year for a player to come out of nowhere and win the award.
I think only about six players could truly win the Heisman at this point (Smith, Mensah, Carr, Keelon Russell, Mestemaker, Toney), and I still believe Smith will win the award on Dec. 12 in New York City.
My Heisman portfolio tracker
Of the six players I think could actually win the Heisman at the halfway point of the college football season, I've either bought or sold all of them as Heisman contenders already.
I'm glad I didn't overthink Smith coming into the season, who continues to prove he's the best player in the sport. And though Russell's chances took a hit after the loss to Georgia in Week 6, it's clear he's one of the best QBs in the country, and Alabama has the schedule for him to climb back up the board.
Beyond those two, Mestemaker, Toney, and Legree look like prime candidates to rise, while I'm still hesitant to believe in Mensah and Carr. My biggest mistake, though, is not flipping Kamario Taylor for a profit before his stock crashed against Alabama.
| Player | Week added | Position | Entry price/current price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/54¢ |
 Keelon Russell, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/6¢ |
 Dante Moore, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/1¢ |
 Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 1 | Buy (Yes) | 5¢/3¢ |
 Malachi Toney, WR |
Week 2 | Buy (Yes) | 7¢/2¢ |
 Jadan Baugh, RB |
Week 4 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/1¢ |
 Devon Dampier, QB |
Week 6 | Buy (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Jesse Legree, WR |
Week 7 | Buy (Yes) | 3¢/3¢ |
 CJ Carr, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 89¢/93¢ |
 Sam Leavitt, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 97¢/99¢ |
 LaNorris Sellers, QB |
Week 1 | Sell (No) | 98¢/99¢ |
 Jayden Maiava, QB |
Week 2 | Sell (No) | 96¢/99¢ |
 Arch Manning, QB |
Week 3 | Sell (No) | 92¢/98¢ |
| Darian Mensah, QB |
Week 4 | Sell (No) | 83¢/89¢ |
| Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 5 | Sell (No) | 97¢/98¢ |
 Gunner Stockton, QB |
Week 6 | Sell (No) | 96¢/96¢ |
| Trinidad Chambliss, QB |
Week 7 | Sell (No) | 95¢/95¢ |
| Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/3¢ |
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Will Hammond, QB |
Week 1 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Kamario Taylor, QB |
Week 2 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/3¢ |
 Austin Simmons, QB |
Week 3 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
 Lincoln Kienholz, QB |
Week 4 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Colin Simmons, EDGE |
Week 5 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
| Julian Sayin, QB |
Week 6 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/2¢ |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
