College Football Underdog Picks & Upset Predictions: Week 7

Colby Marchio - Contributor at Covers.com
Colby Marchio • Betting Analyst 7+ years betting experience
Updated: Oct 16, 2026 , 02:00 PM ET • 4 min read

Our expert has sniffed out three underdogs in spots they absolutely love to pull off an upset.

College Football Week 7 Underdog Picks
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Florida Gators mascot Albert the Alligator runs across the field prior to the game against the Georgia Bulldogs.

Week 6 was tough for the underdog picks, they went 1-2, but it’s time to focus on my Week 7 college football underdog picks!

I’ve found three dogs with some serious bite on this week’s slate: Ball State, Florida, and Wisconsin. All three have a legitimate shot at an upset, and I’m ready to back them.

Before you dive in, check out our college football picks page for Week 7.

CFB Week 7 underdog picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.

Pick Kalshi
Probability
 Ball State Ball State 32%
 Florida Florida  22%
 Wisconsin Wisconsin  45%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Ball State Ball State (vs. Bowling Green)

Kalshi probability: 32%

Ball State is coming off a “close” loss against Northwestern last week, covering the 34.5-point spread in a 45-14 Wildcats win. 

For most of the game, it felt like Northwestern was coasting, but that doesn’t take away from how talented this Northwestern team is. Nor does it take away from the gauntlet the Cardinals have endured this season.

Through six games, they’ve played three tough road games at Ohio State, Liberty and Northwestern.

Those three road tests should have the Cardinals more than ready for this week’s trip to Bowling Green, Ohio.

The hometown Bowling Green Falcons have faced Nebraska, Iowa State and a very overrated USF team. They’re coming off back-to-back wins over Sacramento State and Miami (Ohio).

With the Cardinals on a four-game losing streak, they should be geared up to win. They’ve faced enough tough competition to prepare them for MACtion football. I think getting Ball State at +7.5 at some books is extremely disrespectful.

Take the road dog.

Florida Florida (vs. Texas)

Kalshi probability: 22%

THE FLORIDA GATORS ARE NEARLY 13-POINT UNDERDOGS!?!?

Sure, they've lost two straight after dominating Ole Miss, and those losses came by a combined 47 points. But are we forgetting what Texas' schedule looks like?

The Longhorns' last four games hae been against Ohio State, UTSA, Tennessee on the road, and Oklahoma in Dallas. They still have to face Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri, and LSU. Texas is due to hit a wall.

With how underwhelming Texas' offense led Arch Manning have been, the Florida Gators offer a ton of value to pull off an upset against a Longhorns team that will be exhausted.

If taking the Gators to win outright scares you, backing them at +12.5 should give you a comfy, cozy safety blanket.

Wisconsin Wisconsin (vs. UCLA)

Kalshi probability: 45%

The UCLA Bruins have been a very exciting team to watch this season, opening the year 5-0 straight up and against the spread.

However, the Bruins have traveled a lot over their last two games, going from Maryland to Eugene before finally returning home to Los Angeles. All that travel will likely catch up to them.

Enter the Wisconsin Badgers, who have just one blemish on their record: a Week 1 loss to Notre Dame. Since then, Wisconsin has taken down Western Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State, winning those four games by an average of 25 points.

Not to mention, the Badgers have been resting at home since their 31-3 win over Michigan State on Oct. 3. With this their first road game since Sept. 26, Wisconsin is in a strong spot to sneak one past the Bruins and hand UCLA its first loss of the season.

Week 7 underdog combo

Ball State Ball State

Florida Florida

Ohio State Wisconsin

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Colby Marchio
Betting Analyst

Colby Marchio is a two-time DePaul alum and former Division 1 (club) baseball player who has been sports betting since 2019. Since graduating in 2021, he has worked throughout the media circuit, hosting and appearing on various television and radio shows while making countless guest appearances discussing Major League Baseball, college basketball, college football, and the National Football League.

A self-proclaimed numbers nerd, Colby may enjoy digging through the data even more than winning itself. That passion is why his two favorite sports to cover are college basketball and Major League Baseball. 

As for his favorite sportsbook, it is whichever one has the best price, or whichever one is not taxing him as an Illinois resident. 

You can find all of his plays and more @ColbyMBets on Twitter/X.

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