Each week during the season, I’ll review my biggest college football power-ranking adjustments from the prior week and my best spot bets.
This week, we’re taking advantage of the biggest upset in college football last week while also playing against a team that could be running on empty.
You can still take advantage of both in this week's college football picks.
Week 7 power rankings for the Top 10
| Rank | Team | Last week | This week | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Georgia |
93.94 | 93.94 | 0.0 |
| 2 |  Notre Dame |
92.40 | 93.90 | +1.5 |
| 3 |  Ohio State |
93.28 | 93.78 | +0.5 |
| 4 |  Miami (FL) |
90.65 | 90.65 | 0.0 |
| 5 |  Alabama |
89.88 | 89.88 | 0.0 |
| 6 |  Texas |
91.57 | 89.57 | -2.0 |
| 7 |  Indiana |
89.03 | 87.53 | -1.5 |
| 8 |  LSU |
88.66 | 86.16 | -2.5 |
| 9 |  Ole Miss |
82.27 | 84.27 | +2.0 |
| 10 |  Oregon |
86.58 | 83.58 | -3.0 |
Brad Powers Week 7 top picks
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Brad Powers Week 7 power ratings
Toledo -6.5 vs. Eastern Michigan (Oct. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET)
My power ratings make Toledo a 7.5-point favorite, which is a significant disparity through the key number of 7. I'm buying low on Toledo after an upset loss to Buffalo as an 18.5-point favorite. Before that game, Toledo was the best team in the MAC at 4-1.
Toledo still ranks No. 15 nationally with a plus-2.0 yards-per-play advantage over its opponents. Meanwhile, I'm selling high on Eastern Michigan off three straight wins. They came against FCS Lindenwood, Massachusetts, and Akron.
Even though Eastern Michigan has a winning record, it ranks No. 118 in yards-per-play margin (-1.0). That’s despite facing one of the easiest schedules in the country.
Earlier this season, Eastern Michigan hosted San Jose State and lost by six. The Eagles were outgained by 172 yards, and the adjusted box score had them losing by 11. My power ratings would favor Toledo by seven points over that San Jose State team.
Ole Miss -5.5 vs. Missouri (Oct. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET)
My power ratings make Ole Miss a 6.5-point favorite, and we’re trading at Kalshi because it has one of the best prices in the market. Those power ratings also don’t take into consideration the energy level of a team.
I have concerns about a Missouri team that is playing its seventh straight week and coming off big-time efforts against Florida and Texas A&M. You can make a case that we’re selling high after two point-spread covers by a combined 50 points.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss should be fresh. The Rebels had a bye two weeks ago and then easily dispatched Vanderbilt by 35 points last week. They eased All-American running back Kewan Lacy back into the lineup last week after he missed the Florida game, and I expect a heavier workload this week.
Finally, we still have Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss against a Missouri defense that ranks No. 114 in explosiveness allowed.
Biggest upgrades from last week
📈 Oregon State up 3.0 points
Oregon State is the only team in the country that's 6-0 ATS. More impressively, the Beavers have covered those games by an average of 19.3 points per game.
Is the market catching up? Not yet, as Oregon State crushed San Diego State 66-14 last Saturday, covering by 37.5 points. Oregon State had a dominant 651-147 yardage edge. The opening number on Sunday was Oregon State -13.5 vs. Washington State this week. The line is now -17.5.
📈 Purdue up 3.0 points
After losing 19 straight Big Ten games, Purdue has now won two straight. Last Saturday, Purdue crushed Minnesota 41-13 as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Boilermakers dominated the line of scrimmage with a 305-27 rushing-yard advantage.
Purdue's win total was as low as 2.5 this summer, and the Boilermakers have already topped it. This week, Purdue is favored by 3.5 over Washington. It is their largest point spread as a favorite in any Big Ten game in three years.
📈 Buffalo up 3.0 points
Pay attention to the market late in the week when limits open up. Buffalo has taken late-week money in each of the last two weeks. The Bulls almost upset Western Michigan as a two-touchdown underdog two weeks ago.
Last Saturday, Buffalo pulled the biggest upset of the week, beating Toledo 23-8 as an 18.5-point underdog. Buffalo was plus-three in turnover margin but also had a 351-308 yardage edge and led 13-0 at halftime.
Biggest downgrades from last week
📉 Oregon down 3.0 points
Oregon lost outright to UCLA as a 10-point home favorite on Saturday. The Ducks were outgained 345-272 and had seven turnovers.
By EPA per dropback, backup quarterback Dylan Raiola had the worst single-game QB performance in college football over the last three years. Before the season, Oregon was -300 to make the College Football Playoff. Now, the Ducks are +550.
📉 Washington down 3.0 points
Washington had Iowa in the perfect scheduling spot last Friday. The Huskies were catching the Hawkeyes coming off emotional games against Michigan and Ohio State. Iowa was traveling across the country on one fewer day of rest and was also missing its starting quarterback.
Washington would get crushed 41-24 as a 3-point home favorite in a game that was more lopsided than the final score suggests. The Huskies trailed 27-0 and were outrushed 263 to minus-3.
📉 Toledo down 3.0 points
For the first five games of the season, Toledo was the best team in the MAC with a 4-1 record. My power ratings projected the Rockets to be favored in their final seven games, and I thought they were a shoo-in to make the MAC Championship Game.
Toledo went on to lose 23-8 to Buffalo as an 18.5-point favorite last Saturday. It was the biggest upset in any college football game over the last four weeks.
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