For just the third time in college football history, Notre Dame heads to Provo, Utah, to play BYU at LaVell Edwards Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 17, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
The Fighting Irish are 9.5-point favorites in this clash of college football powers, and despite College GameDay being in town, my Notre Dame vs. BYU predictions and college football picks don't expect Marcus Freeman's team to have much trouble on the road.
Notre Dame vs BYU predictions
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Early Notre Dame vs BYU spread pick: Notre Dame -9.5
The biggest reason I like Notre Dame to cover -9.5 or better is BYU is down running back LJ Martin. Martin is the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, and since the beginning of last season, he's racked up over 1,900 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns for the Cougars.
Without him, BYU could struggle to move the ball consistently against a Notre Dame defense that's No. 6 nationally in net adjusted EPA per play and No. 4 in rush success rate (33.8%).
That means a lot will be put on Bear Bachmeier's shoulders, who's just 47th nationally in adjusted completion percentage (75.2%).
BYU is catching Notre Dame at a tough time, too, with the Fighting Irish finding their Jeremiyah Love replacement in Jonaz Walton. The freshman has ignited a previously inconsistent Notre Dame run game — running for 301 yards over his last two games.
With Walton breaking out, Notre Dame should exploit a BYU defense ranked 77th in EPA per rush. And with CJ Carr ranking fourth in the country in QBR (89.0), it's not like the Cougars can sell out to stop Walton.
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Early Notre Dame vs BYU total pick: Over 47.5
Notre Dame's offense has been almost flawless lately and has helped the Fighting Irish hit the Over in three straight games. I think Notre Dame will make it a fourth straight against BYU and would play the Over at 51.5 or better.
Carr is among the best QBs in college football right now, ranking Top 10 nationally in TD passes (16), adjusted completion percentage (80%), big-time throw rate (7.9%), and pressure-to-sack rate (6.5%).
He's as efficient as it gets, and the Irish are No. 2 in the country in available yards percentage (67%) because of him and a loaded offensive line.
Notre Dame's offense is ranked No. 2 by SP+ and has averaged 42.4 points per game against Power Four opponents. It can put up 30+ on this BYU defense, and the Cougars should score at least 17 to help the Over hit.
Even without Martin, BYU has talent to help Bachmeier. Wide receiver Legend Glasker is one of the country's best big-play threats, and he and Bachmeier have the Cougars ranked top 10 in offensive success rate (50.9%).
Notre Dame vs BYU odds
- Notre Dame vs BYU spread: BYU -10.5
- Notre Dame vs BYU moneyline: Notre Dame 76%, BYU 24%
- Notre Dame vs BYU Over/Under: 47.5
How to watch Notre Dame vs BYU
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Provo, Utah
- Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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