College GameDay rolls into Provo on Saturday morning, but the main event comes that evening when No. 2 Notre Dame takes on No. 8 BYU at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
CJ Carr leads a dominant Fighting Irish offense, and he's one of three players we're targeting in our Notre Dame vs. BYU prop picks for this Top 10 showdown.
Let's dive into our Notre Dame vs. BYU predictions and college football picks ahead of kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 17.
Best Notre Dame vs BYU props
Prop pick #1: Journee Tonga Under 28.5 rushing yards
The loss of LJ Martin puts immense pressure on the BYU ground game.
Last week, BYU spread the carries around. Journee Tonga led all backs with eight, but managed just 19 yards. That's what happens when you're averaging just 1.73 yards after contact this season vs. Power 4 opponents.
The Notre Dame defense ranks fourth in rushing success and has allowed only eight runs of 10+ yards all season. That means Tonga needs volume to clear, and he won't get it with the Irish loading the box and forcing Bear Bachmeier's arm to beat them.
I'm playing this to 53%.
Prop pick #2: CJ Carr Over 4.5 rushing attempts
At under 45% probability, this is one of my favorite player props of the weekend, and I'm playing it up to 52%.
BYU's defense ranks 11th in havoc rate, and the noise inside LaVell Edwards Stadium will make it difficult for Notre Dame's offensive line to communicate.
CJ Carr has topped this number in three of his last four starts, in part because he's shown he's willing to use his legs to make plays.
He's scrambled twice in each of the last two games, picking up 28 yards. Add in sacks counting as rushing attempts, and we have two clear paths to reach our number.
Prop pick #3: Jonaz Walton Over 54.5 rushing yards
Jonaz Walton is everything Tonga is not — an explosive back who can break one if he's given a seam, averaging 4.34 yards after contact the past three games.
And at this number, I'm backing Walton to clear it up to 55%. He's facing a BYU front ranked in the 52nd percentile in explosive run rate, and 78th nationally in EPA/rush.
Aiden Flora averaged 5.1 yards per attempt last week, following Jeremy Payne’s 5.5 yards per attempt the week before. With the way he's dominated the carry share the past two games, he'll turn similar production into a big day.
- Prop picks: 7-4, +2.71 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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