Let our Notre Dame vs. BYU expert picks help you make your Notre Dame vs. BYU predictions for tonight's game!
See why our panel is picking Notre Dame by majority decision, and why we won't see a barnburner on Saturday, Oct. 17.
Notre Dame vs BYU expert picks for tonight
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 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: ND -10.5 |
51% |
 Rob Paul: ND -10.5 |
51% |
 Colby Marchio: BYU +10.5 |
50% |
 Chris Vasile: Under 47.5 |
53% |
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Notre Dame -10.5
I would play this to -11.5. Notre Dame is one of my biggest trades of the season despite moving past the key number of 10, as my power ratings make this spread 13 points.
There’s a market misperception about Notre Dame’s strength of schedule so far. While the Fighting Irish haven't played a ranked team yet, Jeff Sagarin ranks Notre Dame's strength of schedule No. 31. Despite playing a tougher schedule than most top-10 teams, Notre Dame ranks first in net success rate, net EPA per play, and opponent-adjusted net EPA per play.
On the other side, BYU has played just three games against top-10 opponents over the past four years, getting outscored 98-20 in those matchups. This is a big step up in competition.
The Cougars are extremely limited at the skill positions beyond QB Bear Bachmeier, and I expect Notre Dame to stack the line of scrimmage against the QB run game.
Nick Galiada believes it's not all bad news for Bachmeier in his Notre Dame vs. BYU touchdown picks.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Notre Dame -10.5
Without LJ Martin playing, I don't think BYU will have enough offense to keep this close, even with College GameDay in Provo. Though I expect a slow start from Notre Dame's offense with the hostile environment, the Fighting Irish's defense should hold it down in the first half.
Notre Dame's defense ranks second nationally in available yards percentage (26.7%), and without Martin, BYU's offense will rely too heavily on Bear Bachmeier. Bachemeier will likely be in third-and-long situations against an Irish defense that's No. 2 in early-down EPA per play, and I just don't believe he's a quality enough passer to keep BYU in this game with his arm.
CJ Carr and Jonaz Walton should help Notre Dame pull away in the second half. Walton's breakout at running back has turned an already wildly efficient offense (No. 3 in net EPA per play) into a machine. Walton (301 rushing yards in his last two games) should be the X-factor against a BYU defense that's just 78th in EPA per rush.
Paul has more to say about this game in his college football Top 25 predictions for Week 7.
Colby Marchio’s expert pick: BYU +10.5
This will mark the first hostile environment the Fighting Irish have had to go into all season.
“But they played at Purdue and North Carolina!” Oh, you mean inside the state of Indiana, against a Purdue team returning home from LA, and at a basketball school?
This is a matchup the Cougars have been eyeing since the schedule came out. Since 2021, BYU is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog, with five outright wins. This feels like a great spot to back Kalani Sitake and his boys to keep this one competitive.
Dive in deeper with Marchio's college football hate picks for Week 7.
Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Under 47.5
Notre Dame and BYU have elite defenses, which matters more to me than their unbeaten records.
The Irish allow just 11.0 points and 58.3 rushing yards per game; the Cougars give up 13.4 points and 80.4 rushing yards. BYU is also without leading rusher LJ Martin, who has 344 yards in four appearances.
BYU needed 506 total yards to score just 24 points against Iowa State, and it scored only 17 at TCU the previous week. Notre Dame's 44-point scoring average is the danger, but BYU's defense should make those points harder to find.
For more total picks, read Vasile's college football Over/Under picks for Week 7.
Notre Dame vs BYU odds for tonight
How to watch Notre Dame vs BYU
| Location | LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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