College Football Picks

The Northern Illinois Huskies are one of the least capable offensive teams in the country, and both defenses should find success in what will be a low-scoring MAC slog.

QB Dru DeShields has been the reason that Kent State isn't a laughing stock this season. In conference play, he's thrown for 749 yards with eight touchdowns and just one interception, and is second in the conference in QB efficiency. Ball State ranks 116th in EPA per dropback and 120th in success rate on dropbacks while allowing the second-most passing TDs in conference play this season. I love the price for DeShields to throw a pair of scores in this one.

Northwestern is just 2-6 O/U on the year, and this is a pretty high number.

USC has way more offensive firepower and will benefit from Northwestern traveling across the country. 

The Cougars will use the RPO and option looks to put pressure on Texas Tech's outstanding front seven, and use explosive runs to help put up points. 

However, BYU ranks in the bottom half nationally in explosive pass rate against and points per quality drive allowed. That will lead to big pass plays for the Red Raiders, who rank 18th in EPA/dropback. 

BYU refuses to give up no matter the score, and that will help push Texas Tech to keep scoring and drive the number over the total.

BYU has gotten off to slow starts on the road far too often this season. The Cougars have found a way to overcome that, but won't on Saturday against this explosive Texas Tech offense.

The Red Raiders rank 18th in EPA/dropback, and have found a bit of a run game recently. Defensively, they rank first in EPA/rush on defense and 17th in points allowed per quality drive.

The Cougars rank just 69th in quality drive rate on offense, and 72nd on defense. That won't get the job done against the Red Raiders, who have won by at least 23 points in all eight victories. 

Curt Cignetti knows no pause. The Hoosiers head coach has authored a 4-2 against the spread record in Big Ten play this season, including a 2-1 ATS record as a double-digit favorite. Penn State's offense is so wretched, Indiana's dynamic offense should set this tone beyond any backdoor worries.

Bowling Green's offense did not look better in Drew Pyne's return. The thought had been the immense struggles were entirely tied to Pyne's injury, but losing to Kent State emphasized otherwise. The Falcons played better, but nowhere near well, and they leaned on the ground game far too much. Eastern Michigan's defense is atrocious, but its rush defense has improved in the last month. That improvement should earn a win at home as a short favorite.

Texas A&M has hit the Game Total Over in eight of their last 12 games.

The Tigers do not typically get blown out and will take advantage of being at home to keep this game close. 

Diego Pavia does not get to beat Hugh Freeze for a third time, but he should still run through Auburn's defense at least once, and that may be all it takes to cover this spread. The Tigers' offense is broken beyond repair. The Commodores should take advantage of that as they try to keep their Playoff hopes alive.

Notre Dame has held four of their last five opponents to 13 points or less and will contain the Navy run game here. 

The Midshipmen are 2-6 against the spread this season despite being 7-1 straight up.

It may not be popular to bet against Hawai'i in the late-night slate, and it may be stunning to believe in Sean Lewis's defense, but both are valid approaches this weekend. San Diego State has found itself in pole position in the Mountain West more thanks to its defense than its offense, most notably thanks to its passing defense. No one throws the ball more than the Rainbows, and that is a failing approach against the Aztecs.