College Football Picks

Texas Tech has not lost with starting quarterback Behren Morton in the lineup. The Red Raiders have not lost against the spread against Power Four competition with Morton in the lineup. They have not even come within 10 points of losing ATS against Power Four competition with Morton in the lineup. Texas Tech remains underappreciated, and as a short underdog, that provides us outright value on a plus-moneyline bet.

The Red Raiders limit opponents to 10.9 ppg and just 254.4 total yards on a measly 4.0 yards per play. Oregon checks in at seventh in EPA per play allowed, but public sentiment is experiencing recency bias due to garbage-time production by JMU in the first round.

Alabama is an immensely flawed football team that was fortunate for Oklahoma’s mistakes in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Indiana is one of the most fundamentally sound teams we have seen in years; those mistakes should not be gifted. But the Tide also have one of the highest ceilings in the country, and desperation should bring out their best side, the passing game. This hook begs for a backdoor cover from an explosive passing attack in the second half.

Trinidad Chambliss will be the key for Mississippi to keep the Sugar Bowl close and potentially pull off the upset against Georgia. Chambliss leads a Rebels aerial attack that ranks seventh in the country in success rate on dropbacks. Despite winning nine in a row, the Bulldogs have been vulnerable against good passers, ranking 55th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.

The Under has hit in seven of the last 10 Georgia games and each of the last four. 

Rice is one of the worst teams in Bowl Season and is arguably even worse than its 5-7 record. Texas State is much better than its 6-6 record and should be close to full strength. The Bobcats generated more plays of 50+ yards than any other team and should find many of those against a Rice defense ranking dead last in explosives allowed(136th).

This is an honourable mention Service Academy game. Cincinnati will be without star QB Brendan Sorsby, who has entered the transfer portal. That should mean a heavy dose of the running game. Mix that with the Navy modified Wing T offense, and possessions should be limited in this game. Give me the Under.

Wake Forest was powered by its defense this season, and its best player, stud defensive tackle Mateen Ibirogba, entered the transfer portal. But the Demon Deacons are also down their best offensive player too. Demond Claiborne has declared for the NFL Draft. Mississippi State was underrated this season and was a few plays away from having three more wins this season. I'll lay with the Bulldogs here.