College Football Picks

Louisville's continuity gives them an edge, and this is playable as long as it stays under a touchdown.

Western Kentucky ranks 23rd in third-down conversion rate, 32nd in points per quality drive, and 29th in completion rate. The Southern Miss Golden Eagles will have a mismatch with a defense that ranked 115th in getting third down stops, 111th in points per quality drive, and 85th in EPA/dropback. 

The Hilltopers are elite at limiting points on quality drives, ranking fourth with just 2.2 PPQD allowed. The Golden Eagles rank 59th in that metric, behind an offense that sits 110th in dropback success rate. 

Western Kentucky has the better defense, and has an offense that will keep drives going with third down conversions. Add in the penalty issues that have plagued Southern Miss all season, and you've got a great spot to back the better team laying less than a field goal. 

This line has ballooned in response to Ohio's coach getting fired, but the other factors don't support the wide spread. The only team to beat the Bobcats by 7+ was Ohio State, and they have better metrics despite having faced a more difficult schedule. 

It's a homecoming of sorts for Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. The Cal QB appears committed to the program, and earning a win in this bowl would be a great boost. It's been a season of ups and downs for JKS, but when he's on, he's really on. Just look at his last game against SMU, where he went 31-40 for 330 yards and four TDs. Hawaii has an underrated defense, but in front of family, I'm betting JKS puts on a show and leads the Golden Bears to a win.

Miami managed just 10 points against the Aggies, who rank first in third-down conversion rate. The Buckeyes rank second. They're also much better than Texas A&M at limiting points on quality drives.

The Canes won't get many of those to begin with. Remember, this is an Ohio State defense that didn't allow a single opponent to score more than 16 points in a single game. One other team in history has done that.

On the flip side, the Miami defense is fairly strong and will give Ohio State some issues in the trenches. That should prevent the Buckeyes from having a big scoring day of their own.

I don't see this game getting to 40 points, especially not with Carson Beck involved. Take the Under.

The last I checked, Carson Beck is the quarterback of the Miami Hurricanes. And he's too turnover prone and inconsistent for me to back the Canes to keep this game close.

Ohio State has one of the best defenses in college football, and Indiana managed just 13 points. But the Hoosiers have a better defense than the Canes, who allow too many explosive pass plays and rank 132nd in missed tackle rate. 

The Buckeye receivers are beyond elite, and should find success against a defense that gave up 91 throws of 10+ yards this season despite facing some fairly anemic passing attacks. 

Beck will be forced to make tough throws and keep drives alive. He will turn it over multiple times as the offense struggles to score and the Buckeyes win comfortably. 

The Red Raiders limit opponents to 10.9 ppg and just 254.4 total yards on a measly 4.0 yards per play. Oregon checks in at seventh in EPA per play allowed, but public sentiment is experiencing recency bias due to garbage-time production by JMU in the first round.

Oregon is 38-4 across its last 42 games, and the only losses have come to a National Championship runner-up (Washington, twice in 2023), a National Champ (Ohio State last year), and the current No. 1 team in the country (undefeated Indiana this season). Texas Tech, meanwhile, lost to Arizona State this year.

The Under has hit in seven of the last 10 Georgia games and each of the last four. 

Georgia won the previous matchup by 8 points this season and have improved their play since that game.