College Football Picks

For a game with a total of just 50.5 that should fall short of that number thanks in part to the cold of Dublin, this spread moving off +3.0 is foolish. Iowa State has the better defense and the more experienced quarterback. This hook is too generous.

Northwestern beat Nebraska. Notre Dame beat Navy. Georgia Tech beat Florida State. Clearly, the nerdier school always wins in Dublin. Iowa State is nerdier than Kansas State, right? Probably? More earnestly, the Wildcats' offensive line is young and inexperienced. That OL has long been quickly developed by Conor Riley, now with the Dallas Cowboys. That uncertainty should be quickly exposed in a low-scoring game in Dublin against an Iowa State defense poised to surprise some people thanks to health after a disastrously-injured 2024.

The Rebels are expected to play two quarterbacks, Michigan transfer Alex Orji and Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea, against a defense that surrendered 37.8ppg a year ago. UNLV’s run game should be cooking, led by star tailback Jai’Den Thomas (918 rushing yards, seven touchdowns a year ago). The Idaho State Bengals, meanwhile, will lean on their offense-first identity that saw them average 32ppg in 2024. They’re led by an experienced offensive line that essentially returns four starters from a unit that allowed only 10 sacks a season ago. 

Kansas returns to a newly renovated Memorial Stadium for the first time since the end of the 2023 season, and with a healthy Jalon Daniels, a few explosive plays should propel the Jayhawks to covering this spread as long as it stays within two touchdowns.

Kansas did not play in Lawrence in 2024. Debuting in a newly renovated Memorial Stadium should bring more of a charged atmosphere than a usual Week 1 game in August heat. Star QB Jalon Daniels may assure that on his own. He found his receivers for a good number of explosives last year amid a relative faceplant of a season. Breaking in a new set of receivers will be a priority in Week 1, developing chemistry by throwing over the Fresno State defense.

Usual power ratings do not apply as both these rosters churn through players beyond previous comprehension. But Western Kentucky somehow returns more stability from a better team. The real reason to doubt the Bearkats, though, is doubt in new head coach Phil Longo. His offensive philosophy will only emphasize Sam Houston State's deficiencies.

Phil Longo is the new head coach at Sam Houston, and he loves to push the tempo. But I'm not sure even he knows who will be doing the pushing to start the year. Reports out of camp is that there are still three guys in contention for the starting QB role. That probably doesn't mean the Bearkats have three good QBs. WKU loaded up on defensive transfers this season and they should cause enough problems to slow Longo down while he's still figuring things out.

Yes, Stanford is the Power Four team. Yes, Stanford expected to return more of its 2024 production. And yes, Hawai'i went only 3-7 last year against FBS competition. But when Andrew Luck fired Troy Taylor in late March, a Cardinal exodus began. That becomes a one-way migration, nearly all possible incoming transfers already off the market. There is a reason teams with late coaching changes went 24-40-1 ATS to start last season. This roster attrition costs programs in ways math cannot quickly catch up with. Doubt Stanford early in 2025. And trust Timmy Chang to actively know what the spread is. He has been vocal about that in recent years.

Hawaii will win the game and cover the spread; they’re improved on both sides of the ball, whereas Stanford might take a step back seemingly everywhere.

Boise State was the Ashton Jeanty show last year, but quarterback Maddux Madsen deserves some praise as well for getting the Broncos into the CFP. He completed 247 of 396 passes (62.4%) for 3,018 yards and 23 touchdowns with only six interceptions. South Florida's pass defense is ripe for the picking, with this unit ranking 133rd in yards allowed per game through the air last season (291.8). The Bulls went 0-5 when allowing the opposition to complete at least 60% of its throws.

Both teams have some question marks under center. I just like Texas's questions a little better. The Arch Manning Era begins, and while we didn't see him play against much top competition last season, at the very least, we know he's a tremendous athlete. Meanwhile, redshirt freshman Justin Sayin won the starting job at Ohio State. But the biggest factor here is that I believe the Texas defensive line will do a better job when it comes to pressuring the young opposing QB. So give me the Longhorns to win this epic opener.

Ohio State built its 2024 championship roster by retaining talent. Players who could have been third- or fourth-round NFL draft picks instead stayed in Columbus. However, that bill comes due quickly, as those players are now indeed in the NFL. The Buckeyes need to replace their entire backfield, an All-American left tackle and their top four defensive linemen, along with four more defensive starters. Ohio State has the talent to fill those spots, but in Week 1 against a fellow national title contender with more established pieces, the Buckeyes may be in a tough spot to start the season. The hype will be centred around Archie Manning, but Texas could dictate the outcome of this game with its backfield, a page out of Ohio State's 2024 playbook.

Clemson returns four starting offensive linemen, as well as two reserves with starting experience, to block for senior quarterback Cade Klubnik. The veteran uncorked a deep ball last season, throwing 16 TDs on passes traveling 20+ yards in the air, and that could expose what has been an inconsistent LSU secondary. Mostly, Clemson's offense has a high floor with that offensive line in front of Klubnik, and its defense returns four of its top-five disruptors. That is the core of a national title contender, opening the season against a program that has loudly scuffled along for three years under Brian Kelly.