The Texas Longhorns face the NC State Wolfpack in the First Four in Dayton, Ohio tonight.
These teams combined for 199 points when they clashed in November and my Texas vs. NC State predictions expect another shootout as they battle for the No. 11 seed in the West Region.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this NCAA Tournament clash on March 17.
Texas vs NC State prediction
Who will win Texas vs NC State?
This game is a pick'em, and in what should be a close contest, I expect the Texas Longhorns' superior size and rebounding to make the difference.
Texas vs NC State best bet: Over 158.5 (-110)
The NC State Wolfpack take care of the ball and shoot a sizzling 38.8% from deep — the 10th-best mark in the country. They'll torch a Texas squad that sits outside the Top 300 in opponent turnover rate and opponent 3PT% (36%).
That said, NC State has surrendered more than 80 points in six straight games and ranks just 348th in opponent eFG% (57.8%) since the start of February.
That's bad news against the Longhorns, who are 61st in eFG% (54.2%), attack the offensive glass, and get to the line at the fourth-highest rate in Division 1.
COVERS INTEL: Since the start of February, NC State is outside the Top 300 in opponent 2PT% (56.5), opponent 3PT% (40.1%), and defensive rebounding rate. 
Texas vs NC State same-game parlay
Dailyn Swain is the most efficient isolation scorer in the country and has scored more than 20 points in nine of his last 14 games. The Wolfpack don't have a wing capable of containing him when he attacks the hoop.
Paul McNeil Jr. has knocked down more than 2.5 threes in 12 of his last 19 games, shooting 44.4% from deep over that span. He'll light up the Longhorns' piss-poor perimeter defense.
Texas vs NC State SGP
- Over 158.5
- Dailyn Swain Over 18.5 points
- Paul McNeil Jr. Over 2.5 threes
Our Big Dance SGP: First Four Firefight
Since we're expecting a shootout, let's also back the Over assists for Swain and Wolfpack guard Quadir Copeland. Copeland leads NC State with 6.6 apg, while Swain has picked up at least four dimes in three straight games while averaging 6.0 per game over that span.
Texas vs NC State SGP
- Dailyn Swain Over 18.5 points
- Dailyn Swain Over 3.5 assists
- Paul McNeil Jr. Over 2.5 threes
- Quadir Copeland Over 6.5 assists
Texas vs NC State odds
- Spread: Texas +1 (-115) | NC State -1 (-105)
- Moneyline: Texas -110 | NC State -110
- Over/Under: Over 158.5 | Under 158.5
Texas vs NC State betting trend to know
The Over is 14-4 in the Wolfpack's last 18 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. NC State.
How to watch Texas vs NC State
| Location | UD Arena, Dayton, OH |
| Date | Tuesday, March 17, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
Texas vs NC State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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