My New Mexico St. vs. Gonzaga prediction targets a potential mismatch Saturday at McCarthey Athletic Center in Spokane, Wash. Tipoff is 5 p.m. ET, with 'Zaga favored by 29.5 and the total at 151.5.
Coming off a six-point win over Purdue, Gonzaga presents an intriguing spread-and-total opportunity.
Find more expert college basketball picks for Saturday's slate.
TOP PICK
Who will win New Mexico St. vs Gonzaga: Gonzaga -29.5
I'm taking Polymarket's side over the college basketball gurus, and investing in the Gonzaga Bulldogs -29.5, up to 31.5, against the New Mexico State Aggies. That approach worked Thursday when Duke covered -40.5 against Coastal Carolina despite the college hoops models projecting a closer game than Polymarket.
KenPom, Bart Torvik, and Erik Haslam have Zaga winning between 19 and 24 points. Those models, especially KenPom, used to feel sharp, but now even casual college hoops fans know about them.
Gonzaga covered the 5.5-point spread in a 78-72 neutral-site win over Purdue in its first game. While New Mexico State needed a second-half rally to beat Division II Western New Mexico at home Tuesday, a game without a market, the Aggies are still 0-0 vs. the spread.
COVERS INTEL: Western New Mexico outrebounded the Aggies by nine in their season opener. Meanwhile, Gonzaga outrebounded Purdue in its 78-72 victory. That's a concerning matchup for a New Mexico State team facing a much bigger, more athletic frontcourt in 'Zaga. 
New Mexico St. vs Gonzaga Over/Under pick: Under 151.5
As long as the Under stays below 153.5, I'm in because blowouts are where Overs go to die. Gonzaga has gone Under the total in nine straight games where it has won by at least 20 points.
Furthermore, the Bulldogs usually force their opponents to slow it down and play half-court basketball. According to KenPom, Gonzaga's opponents have ranked 320th and 335th in average possession length over the past two seasons.
Also, New Mexico State's offense took another hit Tuesday when starting SG Gabe Warren tore his ACL just six minutes into the opener. Warren averaged 12.5 points at Holy Cross last season.
New Mexico St. vs Gonzaga combo
I'm expecting Gonzaga to turn this into a glorified scrimmage, but that doesn't mean the scoreboard needs to light up. The Bulldogs can build a massive lead by owning the glass, getting easy looks, and making New Mexico State work for everything at the other end.
Once the game gets out of hand, I'm counting on 'Zaga head coach Mark Few to empty his bench rather than run up the score. The biggest threat is Gonzaga doing too much of the scoring itself, but I like the way these two angles fit together.
I'm risking just 0.25u, as always with my combos.
New Mexico St. vs Gonzaga combo
- Gonzaga -29.5
- Under 151.5
- Top picks: 3-1, +1.66 units
- Combos: 2-2, +1.22 units
- Props: 1-0, +0.85 units
New Mexico St. vs Gonzaga odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: New Mexico St. +29.5 | Gonzaga -29.5
- Over/Under: Over 151.5 | Under 151.5
- Moneyline: New Mexico St. 2% | Gonzaga 99%
For the full slate of college basketball matchups, check out our college basketball odds board!
New Mexico St. vs Gonzaga trend
The Under has cashed in Gonzaga's last 11 home games. Find more college basketball betting trends.
How to watch New Mexico St. vs Gonzaga
| Location | McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, Wash. |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026 |
| Tip off | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KHQ (locally), ESPN Unlimited |
New Mexico St. vs Gonzaga latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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