The No. 11 seed Texas Longhorns face the No. 6 seed BYU Cougars in the first round of the NCAA tournament on Thursday.
Superstar freshman AJ Dybantsa leads the Cougars, and my Texas vs. BYU predictions are backing him to have a big game.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this West Region showdown on March 19.
Texas vs BYU prediction
Who will win Texas vs BYU?
BYU: This is a bad matchup for the Texas Longhorns, who don't take enough threes to exploit the BYU Cougars atrocious 3-point defense.
On the other side of the floor, AJ Dybantsa will get to the line at will since Texas fouls at a sky-high rate.
Texas vs BYU best bet: AJ Dybantsa Over 27.5 points (-112)
AJ Dybantsa leads the country with 25.3 points per game. The BYU Cougars phenom reached another level after Richie Saunders suffered a season-ending injury, clearing 27.5 points in seven games since February.
Dybantsa finished just below this number with 26 points in his last contest, but that came against Houston's elite defense. He'll have an easier team scoring against the Texas Longhorns, who sit outside the top 300 in opponent FT rate and opponent 3PT% (36%).
Dybantsa can score at all three levels and he averages a whopping 8.4 FTA per game. His improved perimeter shooting and ability to draw fouls will lead to another big game.
COVERS INTEL: Dybantsa sits in the 95th percentile in attacking the rim efficiency per ShotQualityBets, and Texas ranks just 263rd at defending the rim.
Texas vs BYU same-game parlay
Dybantsa has knocked down at least a pair of threes in nine of his last 14 games, and Texas does a poor job defending the arc.
Fading Matas Vokietaitis on his points prop might seem unrelated to our Dybantsa bet, but it's actually heavily correlated.
I'm expecting Dybantsa to live at the line, and that means getting Vokietaitis into foul trouble. The Longhorns center has picked up 4+ fouls in seven straight games and could spend a lot of time on the bench.
Texas vs BYU SGP
- AJ Dybantsa Over 27.5 points
- AJ Dybantsa Over 1.5 threes
- Matas Vokietaitis Under 14.5 points
Our Big Dance SGP: Dybantsa Domination
With Dybantsa grabbing 6.5+ rebounds in seven of his last 10 games, backing the Over on his rebounds prop makes sense.
If he carries BYU with a performance like this, the Cougars have a strong chance to cover both the first-half and full-game spreads.
Texas vs BYU SGP
- AJ Dybantsa Over 27.5 points
- AJ Dybantsa Over 1.5 threes
- AJ Dybantsa Over 6.5 rebounds
- BYU -2.5
- BYU 1H -1
Texas vs BYU odds
- Spread: Texas +2.5 (-110) | BYU -2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas +112 | BYU -135
- Over/Under: Over 158 (-110) | Under 158 (-110)
Texas vs BYU betting trend to know
Both teams have cashed the Over in 15 of their last 25 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas vs. BYU.
How to watch Texas vs BYU
| Location | Moda Center, Portland, OR |
| Date | Thursday, March 19, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Texas vs BYU key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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