The No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes are back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2022, but it could be a short stay after drawing the No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs.
If you’ve read my favorite March Madness underdog picks, you’ll see I’m taking the points with TCU +2.5. I also advanced the Horned Frogs to the Round of 32 in my March Madness outlook.
Helping bounce the Buckeyes from the bracket is a “ghost of Big Ten past”. Former Iowa guard and current TCU floor general Brock Harding is at the wheel of an attack that thrives on turning defense into easy offense.
My TCU vs. Ohio State predictions are pro Horned Toads, and my March Madness picks like Harding to hand out his share of assists in the Round of 64.
TCU vs Ohio State prediction
Who will win TCU vs Ohio State?
The spread and game projections are all drum tight for what should be one of the closer Round 1 battles. I took the points with the TCU Horned Frogs, and with that spread short of three points, a TCU victory is right there. The Ohio State Buckeyes see their stock slip away from Columbus and will pay for their miscues, as the Horned Frogs are fantastic at creating turnovers and turning those into buckets.
TCU vs Ohio State best bet: Brock Harding Over 4.5 assists (-105)
Brock Harding averages 5.7 assists and leads the TCU fast break, with those possessions fueled by creating turnovers. The Frogs rank 29th in FBPTS and will try to suck OSU into a quicker tempo.
Texas Christian’s offense thrives on ball movement, with one of the highest assist-to-FGM rates in the country (63rd), and Harding dished out 5+ dimes in 14 of the final 19 regular-season games.
He finished with just three assists in each of his two Big 12 tournament outings, due to foul trouble and some poor shooting. However, his Round 1 projections flirt with six dimes.
COVERS INTEL: Ohio State’s defense has allowed opponents to post a 60.5% assist rate over the past five games and allows a 58.5% assist-to-FGM rate away from home on the season.
TCU vs Ohio State same-game parlay
Texas Christian’s defense travels while Ohio State’s shooting gets left behind in Columbus. The Horned Frogs are a battle-tested Big 12 program, while the Buckeyes stumbled against stronger competition this year.
Xavier Edmonds can finish on the fastbreak and hit the offensive glass for putbacks. Game projections have the Horned Frogs forward putting up close to 14 points.
TCU vs Ohio State SGP
- TCU +2.5
- Brock Harding Over 4.5 assists
- Xavier Edmonds Over 12.5 points
Our Big Dance SGP: Feeling froggy!
TCU’s athletic forwards finish the fastbreak with Harding handing out dimes and punching the Frogs' tickets to the Round of 32.
TCU vs Ohio State SGP
- TCU moneyline
- Brock Harding Over 4.5 assists
- Xavier Edmonds Over 12.5 points
- Micah Robinson Over 11.5 points
TCU vs Ohio State odds
- Spread: TCU +2.5 | Ohio State -2.5
- Moneyline: TCU +115 | Ohio State -140
- Over/Under: Over 146.5 | Under 146.5
TCU vs Ohio State betting trend to know
TCU has cashed in on the moneyline in 17 of its last 25 games for +12.50 units and a 1% ROI. Find more college basketball betting trends for TCU vs. Ohio State.
How to watch TCU vs Ohio State
| Location | Bon Secours Wellness Arena, Greenville, SC |
| Date | Thursday, March 19, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 12:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
TCU vs Ohio State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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