The last Cinderella alive in the NCAA Tournament, the Iowa Hawkeyes face a stiff but familiar foe in the Elite Eight. They lost to the Illinois Fighting Illini in January, and the Illini look far better these days.
My Iowa vs. Illinois predictions and these March Madness picks expect a painfully slow game early, though the stakes of the moment could lead to some entertainment late on Saturday, March 28.
- UPDATE: Added prediction for who will win.
Iowa vs Illinois prediction
Who will win Iowa vs Illinois?
Illinois: When push comes to shove, Illinois should be better trusted to get a bucket in the Elite Eight. The Ilini have better and more offensive options than the Hawkeyes do. While oddsmakers do not expect this to be a particularly close game, Illinois should still have the edge even if it is tight at the end.
Iowa vs Illinois best bet: Under 64.5 — 1H (-115)
The Iowa Hawkeyes are the fifth-slowest team in the country. The Illinois Fighting Illini rank in the bottom quarter. No wonder this game’s total is 138.5.
The tournament stakes could make for a wonky second half, but expect Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum to feel out Illinois in the first half, particularly given how well the Illini defense played against Houston in the Sweet Sixteen.
Furthermore, the two-day turnaround for this game should further emphasize a slow start. These college students have recovered physically, but the coaches may still want to lessen early mental mistakes simply by bringing the first half to a crawl.
COVERS INTEL: Houston played nearly as slowly as Iowa (No. 353 in pace vs. No. 361), and Illinois’s win against the Cougars featured just 58 possessions, the second-lowest number of the Illini season.
Iowa vs Illinois same-game parlay
Part of why Iowa so often slows down games is that it lessens the impact of the Hawkeyes’ talent disadvantage. They are not the most physically-gifted team in even their own state, let alone in the Big Ten or the NCAA Tournament.
That thought applies even more when a three-bucket underdog has the Final Four on the line. Slowing down the game will lead to fewer possessions, which will then give Iowa a better chance of covering this spread.
No matter how few the possessions are, almost every Hawkeyes possession will put the ball in Bennett Stirtz’s hands. Illinois should force it out of his hands, but at some point, that will come at the expense of buckets.
Iowa vs Illinois SGP
- Under 64.5 — 1H
- Iowa +7
- Bennett Stirtz Over 3.5 assists
Our Big Dance SGP: Little early, lots late
A tournament setting can make for a wonky close to a game. Illinois has made a habit of blowing late leads this season; just look at the moments of curiosity that Houston forced in the closing minutes of what was otherwise a blowout on Thursday.
The only thing that could possibly get Iowa to speed up is a sizable deficit. That urgency would be clunky, but the presumed mistakes would lead to either broken buckets or transition opportunities the other way, both equaling points.
Iowa vs Illinois SGP
- Under 64.5 — 1H
- Over 138.5
Iowa vs Illinois odds
- Spread: Iowa +7 | Illinois -7
- Moneyline: Iowa +240 | Illinois -300
- Over/Under: Over 138.5 | Under 138.5
Check out our full March Madness odds for more.
Iowa vs Illinois betting trend to know
For both Iowa and Illinois, two of their three NCAA Tournament games have cashed the Unders. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Illinois.
How to watch Iowa vs Illinois
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Saturday, March 28, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 6:09 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
Iowa vs Illinois key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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