Iowa vs Illinois Picks & Props

If the Hawkeyes can control tempo, control the glass, and generate easy points off turnovers, they will crash the Final Four.

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the fifth-slowest team in the country. The Illinois Fighting Illini rank in the bottom quarter. No wonder this game’s total is 138.5. Taking the 1H Under protects you against second-half chaos inherent to a tournament setting.

The Hawkeyes can be exploited by the inside-out game and the last time Mirkovic faced Iowa, he handed out five helpers. Both of these teams want to play a slower tempo and live in the halfcourt, unlike the frenzied pressure the Cougars threw at Illinois. That allows for ball movement and Mirkovic to thrive as a passer. Before Thursday, he had recorded three or more assists in four straight games and Elite Eight projections sit between 2.5 and 3.6 dimes which gives great value at plus-money.

He’s the most active member of a methodical halfcourt offense, forcing defenders to move with him on cuts to the basket. Defending cutters is a soft spot for the Hawkeyes as is defending dribble jumpers, another area in which Boswell gets buckets. Boswell has 17 points in the first meeting with Iowa in January and while he scored only six points versus UH, he’s added 12 and 13 points in the opening week of the tournament. Player models sit as high as 13+ points.

Illinois will want to take the ball out of Stritz’s hands and force Iowa’s other guys to hurt them – much like its defensive approach versus Kingston Flemmings and Houston. Stirtz had four assists in the win over Nebraska and five dimes versus Florida. In the only matchup with the Illini in Big Ten play, he finished with six assists and was limited due to foul trouble. Player projections lean toward five dimes from the Hawkeyes guard.