Meet Douglas Farmer, Our Betting Analyst
Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst
17+ Years ExperienceDouglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.
In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.
While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.
What makes Douglas Farmer an expert?
Douglas tends to hyper-fixate on singular topics, and college football leads that list. Spending more than a decade on the Notre Dame football beat provided plenty of time to study the sport as a whole, as have eight years in the 200-level of Target Center as a Minnesota Timberwolves' season-ticket holder.
Experience
Covers.com
- Betting Analyst
- January 2024 - Present
- Douglas Farmer’s Friday 40-Yarder
- Publication
- The Outcomes and Trends You Should and Shouldn't React To
- Publication
- Ohio State vs Notre Dame Predictions: 3 Reasons Why the Irish Will Win the CFP National Championshi
- Publication
- Timberwolves vs Lakers Predictions: 3 Reasons Why Minnesota Will Win the Series
Covers.com
- Freelance Betting Analyst
- September 2021 - January2024
NBCSports.com
- Beat Writer, Editor
- January 2017 - January 2024
- Friday at 4: Farewell and remember, Notre Dame fans, this is supposed to be fun
- Publication
- Extra time, review and crowds make for a very 2020 upset as Notre Dame tops Clemson
- Publication
- 30 Years of Notre Dame on NBC: Lightning strikes twice in South Florida’s first visit
- Publication
Education
Douglas graduated from a small school in northern Indiana with a B.A. focused on a major derived from the University of Chicago's "Great Book Seminars." But as his program chair noticed, Douglas's actual major was journalism, rising to Editor-in-Chief of the school paper as he filled quite literally every role in the operation, one night selling ads to a local bar while also filling in for an absent cartoonist.
University of Notre Dame
- Bachelor of Arts (Liberal Studies)
5+ years in sports betting
Douglas has been a trusted voice in the industry for more than five years.
17+ years in college football coverage
Douglas has been covering college football since 2008.
Deep knowledge of all 136 NCAAF teams
Douglas prides himself on knowing college football thoroughly, and is as focused on Delaware as he is on Ohio State.
Year-round attention to all sports
An editor at The Los Angeles Times once complimented Douglas on his ability to hold a conversation on any sport, perhaps short of cricket.
How does Douglas stay up to date?
CFB-Graphs
The best one-stop view of a college football team from an analytical perspective.
StatMuse
A natural language processing search engine designed for sports stats, there is no easier way to look up specific questions.
Covers Picks
A comprehensive free picks page that always sparks your own thoughts when analyzing a game.
Q&A with Douglas
How did you get into sports betting?
On the Notre Dame beat, I recognized there were better writers than me, there were better-sourced reporters than me, and there were more veteran reporters with longer knowledge of the Irish than I had.
But there was no one who had a firm and constant handle of the national landscape in college football. Betting on the sport helped me own that niche, always able to recall power ratings to help further conversations only tangentially related to Notre Dame.
What is your best sports betting advice?
Know what you don't know. Focus on that.
If you do not thoroughly know a sport, do not bet on it. Minimizing your losses is a great way to maximize your wins.
How should a sports bettor determine a bankroll?
Always stay within your limits and never chase. Only bet what you can lose. And know why you are betting.
Is it for entertainment, is it an intellectual exercise, or is it to make money? If it is for entertainment, then bet enough to win a pint. That should be enough to garner your interest. My best friends do not bet more than a bar tab, and keeping it within those margins is a great way to keep it a healthy hobby.
What is the biggest mistake made by too many betting analysts?
They forget why sports matter. It is not actually about a bankroll or about social media followers or about website traffic. Sports exist to bring people together.
They stop going to games and simply enjoying the company of those next to them. You do not need to bet on a game to enjoy it. Get to know your neighbor. Help your father watch the game with his grandson. Experience the joy and competitive nature of the players.
Covers' free picks page should not be seen as a pile of bets for you to make. If you use it instead as a spark to your own brainstorming, you may find it accelerates your personal handicapping process.
Douglas' areas of expertise
Douglas specializes in college football but spends so much time watching basketball, he fills eight months a year betting hoops, as well.
College Football
Douglas knows there can be as much value in betting on Missouri State as there is betting on Alabama.
NBA betting
The ebbs and flows of a long NBA season often present betting value as teams go through their own highs and lulls.
WNBA betting
The WNBA is gaining more attention, but is still not bet to saturation. Focusing on summer hoops yields more value than most leagues.
March Madness
The massive attention focused on March Madness provides contrarian opportunities for a sharp bettor.
Douglas's memories
🐶 Biggest Win
A "return to living" trip to Vegas before the 2021 football season started by seeing value on Georgia to win the national championship at +800. By then, mid-August, the consensus line was +650. So, I took my entire weekend's bankroll and put it on what I affectionately referred to as "Clifford." The logic was, Georgia should make the Playoff and by then, I'll be sitting on great value to hedge out. Except, I never hedged out. I just added to the investment all season long, including with live odds of +140. The joy was not in the win, but in the five months of vindicated conviction.
⛔️ Worst Beat
This may seem trivial, but it is the one that still aggravates me years later. There are few better bets in life than fading a Brian VanGorder defense. So when Bowling Green visited Notre Dame in 2019, I trusted the Irish to run it up on their former defensive coordinator, betting the Notre Dame team total Over 54.5. I think I am the only person in the world who vividly remembers Javon McKinley dropping an open crossing route inside the 10-yard line, forcing the Irish to settle for a field goal en route to a 52-0 win.
Douglas's Articles
It's not just Douglas doing the research
Eric Rosales
Betting Analyst
Eric has been involved in sports media in many different capacities since graduating from journalism school in 1999, back when getting your own column in a newspaper was still considered a thing. He doubled down and graduated from broadcast journalism school five years later, which led to a move to Toronto and a career with The Sports Network (TSN). From behind-the-scenes production work, he moved into the digital realm, where he had his own hoops column (At the Buzzer), while regularly live streaming and chatting with fans during broadcasts as the character known as LeBlog James. He was also a key contributor to TSN and CTVs Olympic programming during the 2012 London Games. Eric eventually found his way into the sports betting field in 2016 and has been a mainstay ever since. He was tagged on Twitter as a Top 10 NBA sharp during the 2021 season and has been interviewed about basketball and his handicapping process on shows from Vancouver to India. Eric is now a jack-of-all-sports at Covers, where his predictions span the alphabet soup: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, F1, WNBA, Euro, and Copa. When making picks, he focuses on finding value first and foremost, and ensuring readers have all the information they need to make an informed choice.
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Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, Jon naturally turned his focus to the NBA when he entered the sports betting world. With over 15 years of experience, he specializes in spreads, moneylines, and player propsalways chasing value through sharp market analysis. A firm believer in analytics, Jon trusts the numbers to guide his bets. He monitors NBA betting markets 365 days a year and uses 10+ sportsbooks to find the best prices. If there are NBA games on, Jons up early, caffeinated, and already placing his favorite bets.
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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst
Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu, Greece. Hes the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast. Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications, including Advance Local, SB Nation, FanSided, and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro mens and womens hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe, and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.
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