There's a plethora of games gracing the schedule on Friday, Oct. 23, and our basketball analysts have NBA predictions for each of them.
We've isolated the top NBA picks from tonight's games below, ranging from spreads to moneylines and everything in between.
Dive into our complete breakdown of tonight's top picks below.
NBA top picks at a glance (Friday, Oct. 23)
| Matchup & time | Top pick & analyst |
|---|---|
| Bulls vs. Bucks 4 p.m. |
Bulls moneyline Todd Cordell |
| Knicks vs. Celtics 7 p.m. |
Knicks +2.5 Juan Carlos Blanco |
| Raptors vs. Wizards 7 p.m. |
Raptors -7.5 Chris Walder |
| Pistons vs. Heat 8 p.m. |
Pistons -1.5 Ed Scimia |
| Mavericks vs. Pacers 8 p.m. |
Pacers -4.5 Zak Hanshew |
| Rockets vs. Spurs 8 p.m. |
Under 224.5 Geoff Clark |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors 10 p.m. |
Warriors -4.5 Geoff Clark |
| Clippers vs. Lakers 10:30 p.m. |
Lakers moneyline Chris Walder |
Picks courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Bulls vs Bucks pick: Bulls moneyline
- Time: 4 p.m.
- TV: FanDuel Sports Network
- Analyst: Todd Cordell
Top pick: Bulls moneyline
I like the Chicago Bulls to 52%.
The Bulls and Milwaukee Bucks were two of the three worst teams in terms of assist-to-turnover ratio in their debuts.
The difference is Chicago faced a high-end Toronto defense featuring elite stoppers like Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes, and Collin Murray-Boyles. Meanwhile, the Bucks faced an inexperienced Washington team lacking strong on-ball and point-of-attack defenders.
Chicago will have an easier time protecting the rock in this game, and they also figure to have the advantage on the glass.
Cordell also analyzes player props for Josh Giddey in his Bulls vs. Bucks predictions.
Knicks vs Celtics pick: Knicks +2.5
- Time: 7 p.m.
- TV: Prime
- Analyst: Juan Carlos Blanco
Top pick: Knicks +2.5
The New York Knicks had about as sluggish a start to their title defense as possible in their 106-100 season-opening loss to the 76ers after plenty of pre-game NBA title-related pomp and circumstance, but given the defending champions’ talent, continuity and chemistry, there’s plenty of room for a much better performance.
The Knicks are out of their distraction-laden home environment Friday, a condition that proved favorable to them at the most critical time last postseason. New York won each of its last nine road games during last year's memorable title run.
The Knicks also prevailed in both of last season's regular-season contests at TD Garden by six and 22 points, and New York went 11-8 ATS as a road underdog last season with a +5.1-point ATS +/- in that split.
Blanco examines Derrick White's perimeter shooting in his Knicks vs. Celtics predictions.
Raptors vs Wizards pick: Raptors -7.5
- Time: 7 p.m.
- TV: Sportsnet, MNMT
- Analyst: Chris Walder
Top pick: Raptors -7.5
The Toronto Raptors’ 13-4 record straight up (11-5-1 against the spread) versus the Washington Wizards across their last 17 meetings since 2021 already suggests that Friday’s next encounter will likely go in the favor of the away side.
Keep in mind, however, that none of those games featured the likes of superstars Anthony Davis and Trae Young, although No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa will sit his second consecutive game with an ankle injury.
Nonetheless, Toronto’s commanding defensive pressure should be enough to eke out a cover at -7.5 points on the road, which is a number I'd take up to -9.5. It just held the Chicago Bulls, albeit a depleted and gastrointestinal illness-ridden Bulls, to 92 points en route to a 43-point blowout on Wednesday.
Washington, meanwhile, handled its business with a 12-point win over the Milwaukee Bucks, but it did allow 116 points to an opponent projected to hover around 25 victories.
The vibes are strong for the Wizards after winning their first game of a season since 2022, but the Raptors are a cold dose of reality ready to rain on their parade. Length, defensive versatility, and a more diverse offensive attack will be too much for a Washington team that won consecutive games only five times a year ago.
Walder breaks down Immanuel Quickley's playmaking in his Raptors vs. Wizards predictions.
Pistons vs Heat pick: Pistons -1.5
- Time: 8 p.m.
- TV: FanDuel Sports Network
- Analyst: Ed Scimia
Top pick: Pistons -1.5
The Detroit Pistons needed a massive fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Boston Celtics in their opener, but expectations are still sky high for last year's top seed in the Eastern Conference. Cade Cunningham opened with 22 points and eight assists, while Jalen Duren added 22 points and nine rebounds in the win.
The Miami Heat have big expectations this year as well after adding Giannis Antetokounmpo in the offseason. But while Giannis played well, Miami's opener saw them take a 25-point loss at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves, with the Heat struggling on defense and failing to find much offense beyond their new star.
Detroit is an established and proven winner, while Miami is still learning how to best play with a new-look lineup. I like the Pistons to cover at -3.5 points or better tonight.
Scimia also sets sights on Cade Cunningham balling out in his Pistons vs. Heat predictions.
Mavericks vs Pacers pick: Pacers -6.5
- Time: 8 p.m.
- TV: FanDuel Sports Network
- Analyst: Zak Hanshew
Top pick: Pacers -6.5
The Dallas Mavericks have a strong 1-2 punch in Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving, but beyond them, the team lacks playmakers and go-to scorers.
Dallas will be shorthanded in the frontcourt without Santi Aldama and Dereck Lively II, and starting center Daniel Gafford logged only 22 minutes in the opener.
The Indiana Pacers can exploit the Mavs’ dearth of frontcourt options with Pascal Siakam and Ivica Zubac, who combined for 46 points and 23 rebounds in the opener.
The Pacers went 9-of-30 from distance, but can improve their efficiency against a Mavs team that allowed Houston to knock down 16-of-36 triples in the opener.
Indiana can still attack on the perimeter and push the pace in transition, but Zubac adds offensive depth in pick-and-roll situations and creates second-chance opportunities.
Hanshew breaks down Indiana's spread value in his Mavericks vs. Pacers predictions.
Rockets vs Spurs pick: Under 224.5
- Time: 8 p.m.
- TV: Space City Home Network
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Top pick: Under 224.5
Give me the Under 224.5, down to 222.5.
The Houston Rockets meet the San Antonio Spurs at a neutral venue in the state capital, so both teams will be shooting against unfamiliar sight lines.
I'm also expecting some serious shooting regression from the Rockets, who made an unsustainable 62.3% of its wide-open 3-pointers in Wednesday's 128-110 win over the Dallas Mavericks.
Meanwhile, San Antonio is coming off an opening-night loss to Oklahoma City. The Spurs went 5-15 O/U following a loss last season, with those games finishing 8.5 points below the total on average.
I only use trends when they make basketball sense, and this one does. Defense is mostly effort and communication, two things teams usually emphasize after a loss.
Check out Geoff Clark's player prop picks on Jabari Smith Jr. & Stephon Castle in his Rockets vs. Spurs predictions.
Grizzlies vs Warriors pick: Warriors -4.5
- Time: 10 p.m.
- TV: NBA TV, NBC Sports Bay Area
- Analyst: Geoff Clark
Top pick: Warriors -4.5
The Golden State Warriors -4.5 is playable up to -6.5.
Golden State was projected to win eight more games than the Memphis Grizzlies preseason. For context, the Los Angeles Lakers, who were expected to win seven more games than the Warriors, closed as 6.5-point favorites in their 127-105 win over Golden State Wednesday.
Sure, that was an ugly loss. But Luka Doncic is a top-five NBA MVP candidate with a chip on his shoulder, and L.A. is a notoriously tough place to play. Meanwhile, the Warriors will always live and die by the 3-pointer as long as they have Steph Curry, and teams shoot better at home.
I also trust the NBA’s third-oldest roster to lean on its continuity against the league’s youngest team and create separation.
Get Geoff's Clark's scoop on a Draymond Green prop in our Grizzlies vs. Warriors predictions.
Clippers vs Lakers pick: Lakers moneyline
- Time: 10:30 p.m.
- TV: Spectrum SportsNet, ClipperVision
- Analyst: Chris Walder
Top pick: Lakers moneyline
Since the start of the 2023-24 regular season, the Los Angeles Clippers have put up a goose egg, going 0-6 straight up with just a single cover of the spread along the way.
In defense of the visitors, of the aforementioned six consecutive losses, all but one was determined by six points or fewer. That's why I'm veering away from a lopsided spread of -9.5, which I'd only feel comfortable at around -6.5, if that.
The Los Angeles Lakers received a combined 77 points from three of their starters in a 127-105 decimation of the Golden State Warriors, with Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, and Walker Kessler shooting 60 percent from the field. That three-headed monster is more terrifying than anything the Clippers just encountered, and that's putting it lightly.
Even with defensive options on the wing at their disposal, I don't foresee it being enough for the away side to put a crack in the armor of the home Lakers. It's too much offense to ultimately keep up with over four quarters.
Read our full analysis in the Clippers vs. Lakers predictions.
More NBA picks
Want to build a bigger card? These Covers roundups cover every bet type for today's games:
Check the NBA injury report and compare numbers across basketball betting sites before finalizing today's picks.
All of today’s matchups are also on the NBA scores and matchups page, and the full pick archive lives in free NBA picks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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