While a Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving-sized domino may still fall, much of the NBA offseason dust has settled. That means we can finally look towards a new season with a fresh slate of NBA regular season win totals hitting the NBA betting board for 2022-23.
Let's see where each team's win total stands, and some of the trends we're seeing as we approach the new season.
NBA Win Total Odds
|Golden State Warriors||50.5|
|Los Angeles Clippers||52.5|
|Los Angeles Lakers||OTB|
|New Orleans Pelicans||44.5|
|New York Knicks||OTB|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||25.5|
|Portland Trail Blazers||40.5|
|San Antonio Spurs||23.5|
Odds courtesy of PointsBet as of August 5, 2022.
NBA most projected wins in 2022-23
Boston Celtics (55.5)
Despite their loss in this year's NBA Finals, there's a lot to love about the state of the Boston Celtics. Their talented core which features Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams III, and Al Horford remains intact while the front office dealt with the only other significant hole in the roster — a true point guard — with the acquisition of Malcolm Brogdon from the Indiana Pacers.
Boston's win total currently sits at a league-high 55.5. If the second half of last year's regular season in addition to its deep playoff run is any indication, this team could easily flirt with 60 wins if it can remain healthy.
Phoenix Suns (52.5)
Second on the board are the Phoenix Suns (52.5), who despite seriously disappointing in last year's playoffs, should remain a force in the regular season once again as they bring back its core of Devin Booker, Chris Paul (albeit one year older), Deandre Ayton, Mikael Bridges, and friends. This squad comfortably cruised to a league-best 64-18 record last year with a plus-7.4 point differential (also a league best).
Los Angeles Clippers (52.5)
Also sitting with a 52.5-win total are the Los Angeles Clippers, who will be desperate to get back into championship contention with a deep (and very expensive) roster in 2022-23. The squad is headlined by Kawhi Leonard (who hasn't played since 2020-21) and Paul George with its rotation being filled out by Reggie Jackson, Norman Powell, Robert Covington, Marcus Morris Sr., Nic Batum, Ivica Zubac, and the newly-acquired John Wall.
Milwaukee Bucks (51.5)
Next up are the NBA champions from two years ago, the Milwaukee Bucks, on the board at 51.5 wins. Despite a downtick in regular season success a year ago, the Bucks appeared ready to win another championship before a Khris Middleton injury held them back in their second-round series with the Celtics. However, their core of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and Middleton are more than capable of getting back into the mid-50s.
Golden State, Memphis, Denver, Philadelphia (50.5)
Lastly, there are four teams sitting with win totals of 50.5, most notably the defending champion Golden State Warriors. With its original core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green merged with a slew of young talent, expectations will once again be high for the Warriors as they seek their fifth title in nine years. Also joining them at 50.5 are the Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, and Philadelphia 76ers.
NBA fewest projected wins in 2022-23
San Antonio Spurs (23.5)
On the other end of the spectrum, we have a handful of teams with win totals sitting in the mid-20s, with the lowest being the San Antonio Spurs at 23.5.
After shipping Dejounte Murray away to the Atlanta Hawks for Danillo Gallinari (now on the Celtics) and three first-round draft picks, the Spurs are left with just Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl, Doug McDermott, and Josh Richardson, a roster that should make for one of the league's elite bottom-feeders.
Oklahoma City, Indiana (25.5)
Oklahoma City sits with the second-lowest total alongside the Indiana Pacers at 25.5. Still, between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Rookie of the Year candidate Chet Holmgren, this young crew should at the very least be an entertaining watch.
Indiana, on the other hand, appears to be heading in the opposite direction after shipping Brogdon away. The deal allows the Pacers to give the keys to Tyrese Haliburton and while they'll also look to see what they have in Bennedict Mathurin, another rough season seems inevitable.
How to Bet NBA Regular Season Win Totals
Season win totals are self-explanatory: betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.
Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team — based on past success, returning personnel and a variety of intangible factors — and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total includes regular-season games only.
For example, if oddsmakers calculate the Charlotte Hornets to win around 35 games this upcoming season, they would set the Over/Under at 35.5. Thus, if Charlotte wins 35 or fewer games, they cash the Under. If Charlotte wins 36 or more games in the given season, they cash the Over.
Over 35.5 wins (-110)
Under 35.5 wins (-110)
On top of the season win total itself, some oddsmakers may set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets — also known as vig or juice — depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.
Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season when all results are final.