Whenever the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics meet, it's appointment television. After Boston's collapse in its opener, I'm backing Jayson Tatum and the Celtics to bounce back in Friday's NBA moneyline picks.
I'm also siding with the Detroit Pistons against Miami. Here are my latest NBA picks for Oct. 23.
NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 23
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Bulls Bucks |
51% |
 Knicks Celtics |
56% |
 Hawks Hornets |
45% |
 Raptors Wizards |
67% |
 Timberwolves Magic |
47% |
 Mavericks Pacers |
67% |
 Pistons Heat |
48% |
 Rockets Spurs |
35% |
 Pelicans Jazz |
56% |
 Clippers Lakers |
23% |
 Grizzlies Warriors |
43% |
 Trail Blazers Kings |
74% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
Trade on the NBA at Polymarket!
Sign up now using our exclusive Polymarket promo code 'COVERS' (on your mobile app only) and get a $25 trading bonus after you deposit $10 to trade on any event contracts!
*Eligible locations only
Expert NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 23
Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks: Bucks
I don't like how this matchup sets up for the Chicago Bulls. With Nic Claxton out, Jalen Smith will absorb more minutes at center.
Tyler Herro and Myles Turner should be able to exploit Chicago's drop and switch coverages, especially with Turner's ability to step outside and hit three-pointers.
The Bucks could get the city buzzing with a win in their home opener ahead of Game 1 of the World Series. This game tips off at 4 p.m. ET because of the World Series schedule.
I price Milwaukee closer to a 58% favorite, giving me a solid edge on the Bucks at the current market price.
Knicks vs Celtics: Celtics
The New York Knicks starting the season 0-2? That would be quite a storyline if they lose to both the Philadelphia 76ers and the Celtics right out of the gate.
Boston is trading as a 56% favorite, but I think that number should be higher. I price the Celtics closer to 60% in this matchup.
Nobody should be more familiar with Karl-Anthony Towns' game, or how to slow him down, than Mitchell Robinson. That familiarity is another factor I see working in Boston's favor.
Hawks vs Hornets: Hornets
The Atlanta Hawks picked up an impressive win in Orlando in their opener, but at 45%, I'll back Charlotte to get the job done in its home opener.
Charlotte's offense has limitations without Coby White and Kon Knueppel, but the shooting and spacing from Naz Reid and Grayson Allen should create driving lanes for their teammates against Onyeka Okongwu.
Brandon Miller faces a tough assignment against Atlanta's point-of-attack defenders, but I think Charlotte's shooters will come through and help the Hornets secure the win.
Raptors vs Wizards: Raptors
Anthony Davis is the focal point of Washington's offense. Jakob Poeltl doesn't have an ideal matchup, but finding passing lanes to get Davis the ball in favorable spots won't be easy with Kawhi Leonard and Scottie Barnes defending the wings.
Immanuel Quickley was efficient in the opener and should be able to build on that performance by targeting Trae Young in the pick-and-roll throughout the night.
The Raptors are sizable 67% road favorites, and deservedly so. This is a strong team in the Eastern Conference.
Timberwolves vs Magic: Magic
This feels like an overreaction to one game. Minnesota dismantled Miami in its opener, while Orlando lost at home to Atlanta. And now the Timberwolves are trading as a 54% road favorite?
I think Orlando should be the 54% favorite, so I'll gladly back the Magic at Polymarket.
Orlando has options to disrupt LaMelo Ball's playmaking, from Jalen Suggs' aggressive defense to Franz Wagner's length. The Magic have the size and individual defenders to make life difficult for both Ball and Anthony Edwards.
Mavericks vs Pacers: Pacers
The pace Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard will push is a major concern for the Dallas Mavericks, particularly given their lack of depth at center.
Daniel Gafford gets the start, but he's typically limited to around 20 minutes and tends to tire easily. Indiana's up-tempo offense only adds to that challenge.
With Dereck Lively and Santi Aldama both out, Dallas is missing important frontcourt depth. If the Mavericks' rim protection falters, Pascal Siakam and Ivica Zubac could feast inside, with help from Haliburton's playmaking.
Pistons vs Heat: Pistons
The Pistons shouldn't be underdogs in this matchup. I price Detroit closer to a 55% favorite. If the market is giving me an edge on a fully healthy team that won 60 games last season and earned the East's No. 1 seed, sign me up.
The offseason additions of Isaiah Joe and John Collins should pay off here, giving Cade Cunningham more options against the interior defense of Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Detroit has added shooting for exactly these matchups, and Duncan Robinson would surely love a little revenge against his former team.
Rockets vs Spurs: Rockets
De'Aaron Fox is questionable with a wrist injury, while Keldon Johnson is also questionable with a mouth laceration. Tobias Harris has been ruled out.
The Spurs are heavy favorites despite not being fully healthy after their game against the Thunder. Fox's potential absence could shift the edge toward Houston.
If Fox sits, Amen Thompson can focus on disrupting Dylan Harper or Stephon Castle, making it harder for San Antonio to run its offense. The Spurs typically have multiple ball handlers who can direct the attack, but losing Fox would change that dynamic and give Houston a greater defensive advantage.
I see a slight edge on the Rockets at 35% if Fox plays, and that edge grows considerably if he's ruled out.
Pelicans vs Jazz: Jazz
Utah's big lineup of Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jaxson Hayes is an interesting matchup for a Pelicans offense built around Zion Williamson, a downhill driver who doesn't rely on three-pointers to score.
New Orleans didn't start Herb Jones, its best perimeter defender, and limited his minutes in the opener.
That decision makes little sense to me from a roster-construction standpoint, but it should make life easier for Keyonte George and Darryn Peterson. As a Jazz backer, I hope Jones barely sees the floor.
Clippers vs Lakers: Clippers
Make no mistake: the Lakers are the better team. Backing the Clippers doesn't mean I think they're better than their crosstown rivals. It means I don't believe the Lakers should be trading as 78% favorites. That's too high, so I'll take the Clippers at 23%.
The Clippers' defensive personnel gives them a chance, particularly Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr., who can match up against Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. Brook Lopez's shooting can also pull Walker Kessler away from the rim and create more room to attack. I expect a closer game than the market suggests.
The Clippers aren't an easy team to get behind, but I've done this long enough to know that trusting the math pays off over time. At 23%, the value lies with the Clippers.
Grizzlies vs Warriors: Grizzlies
Ty Jerome opened the season with 45 points on an incredibly efficient night, building on his strong play from last season. Now he faces his former team with another chance to make an early-season statement.
I see the Warriors as a team in decline. It's too early to rely on Stephen Curry or Draymond Green for heavy minutes, and without Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis, it's fair to question how they can contend this season.
The Grizzlies are young and hungry, and at 43%, they're the side I want in this matchup.
Trail Blazers vs Kings: Trail Blazers
If you think 74% is too high a price to pay for Portland, I disagree. I make the Trail Blazers closer to 81% favorites against the Kings on Friday.
Portland has advantages across the board. Its deep guard rotation of Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, Jrue Holiday, and Scoot Henderson can attack Sacramento relentlessly at the point of attack against a perimeter defense short on quality stoppers.
As for Domantas Sabonis, I don't see him having much success trying to bully Donovan Clingan in the paint. Give me the Trail Blazers on the moneyline.
Today's NBA moneyline combo
Magic
Pacers
Pistons
I really like the Pistons and Magic in this combo. Both are trading as underdogs, but I price them as favorites. When my projections are that far above the market price, the potential value can strengthen the entire combo.
The third leg came down to the Pacers and Trail Blazers. I'm taking Indiana at home over Portland on the road in Sacramento. I like the matchups for both teams, but the Pacers get the nod in this spot.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
