My Rockets vs. Spurs prediction starts with Friday’s 9:30 p.m. ET matchup at Austin’s Moody Center, where San Antonio is favored by 5.5 and the total sits at 224.5.
Both teams face unfamiliar sight lines at the neutral venue as I target the total, a combo, and two player props in our NBA picks for Oct. 23.
TOP PICK
Rockets vs Spurs prediction: Under 224.5
Give me the Under 224.5, down to 222.5.
The Houston Rockets meet the San Antonio Spurs at a neutral venue in the state capital, so both teams will be shooting against unfamiliar sight lines.
I'm also expecting some serious shooting regression from the Rockets, who made an unsustainable 62.3% of its wide-open 3-pointers in Wednesday's 128-110 win over the Dallas Mavericks.
Meanwhile, San Antonio is coming off an opening-night loss to Oklahoma City. The Spurs went 5-15 O/U following a loss last season, with those games finishing 8.5 points below the total on average.
I only use trends when they make basketball sense, and this one does. Defense is mostly effort and communication, two things teams usually emphasize after a loss.
COVERS INTEL: Last season, San Antonio ranked third in defensive rating and Houston was sixth, and their four meetings played at a slower pace than this season's average. 
Rockets vs Spurs combo
Even though I expect San Antonio to win by margin, I'm using the Spurs moneyline in my combo to increase the win probability.
San Antonio was an NBA-best 44-16 straight up following a loss last season and in the playoffs, with a +10.0 scoring margin in those games.
Since the Under 224.5 is my Top Pick, I also want a defensive prop that fits the same game script. That makes Spurs wing Stephon Castle 1+ steal a natural third leg.
If San Antonio responds the way it usually does after a loss, defense should be a big reason why.
Rockets vs Spurs combo
- Stephon Castle 1+ steals
- Spurs moneyline
- Under 224.5
Rockets vs Spurs player props
Rockets player prop: Jabari Smith Jr. 15+ Points
Houston big Jabari Smith Jr.'s 15+ points prop is tradable up to 53%.
Smith scored at least 15 points in 48 of 77 regular-season games last season and cleared that mark in five of six first-round playoff games. He also opened this season with 30 points against Dallas on 11-for-17 shooting, including 4-for-8 from behind the arc.
His combination of size and shooting should keep him on the floor in this matchup. More importantly, Smith is only Houston's third scoring option, at best, which should let him benefit from the defensive attention paid to the Rockets' bigger offensive threats.
That should create plenty of clean catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Spurs player prop: Stephon Castle 1+ steals
I almost think this is a mistake by Polymarket, but Castle's 1+ steals prop is only 51% and that's playable up to 60%.
The 2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year is one of the best perimeter defenders in the Association. Castle stole the ball at least once in 60 of his 91 regular-season and playoff games last season. He had five steals in his four games against Houston last season and at least one in three of them.
Finally, Rockets starting PG Fred VanVleet missed all of last season with an injury, and there might be growing pains working him back into the offense against elite defenses.
- Top picks: 2-2, -0.11 units
- Combos: 0-4, -4.0 units
Rockets vs Spurs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Rockets +5.5 | Spurs -5.5
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
- Moneyline: Rockets 36% | Spurs 65%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Rockets vs Spurs trend
Houston was 6-18 O/U as an underdog last season and in the playoffs with a -5.8 margin on the total. Find more NBA betting trends.
How to watch Rockets vs Spurs
| Location | Moody Center, Austin, Texas |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Tip off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Rockets vs Spurs latest injuries
Check out our NBA injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
