Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers host Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday, Oct. 23.
My Mavericks vs. Pacers prediction and NBA picks call for Indiana to cover the spread as the modest favorite in its home opener.
I’m backing Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac to lead Indiana to victory, and Cooper Flagg to lead Dallas's scoring charge.
TOP PICK
Mavericks vs Pacers prediction: Pacers -5.5
The Dallas Mavericks have a strong 1-2 punch in Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving, but beyond them, the team lacks playmakers and go-to scorers.
Dallas will be shorthanded in the frontcourt without Santi Aldama and Dereck Lively II, and starting center Daniel Gafford logged only 22 minutes in the opener.
The Indiana Pacers can exploit the Mavs’ dearth of frontcourt options with Pascal Siakam and Ivica Zubac, who combined for 46 points and 23 rebounds in the opener.
The Pacers went 9-of-30 from distance, but can improve their efficiency against a Mavs team that allowed Houston to knock down 16-of-36 triples in the opener.
Indiana can still attack on the perimeter and push the pace in transition, but Zubac adds offensive depth in pick-and-roll situations and creates second-chance opportunities.
COVERS INTEL: Since 2022-23, the Pacers are 67-37 SU at home with Tyrese Haliburton in the lineup, outscoring opponents by 4.9 points. Since last season began, the Mavericks have the eighth-worst road point differential at -7.8 per game.
Mavericks vs Pacers combo
Dallas’ defense was dreadful in the opener against Houston, surrendering 128 points on 53.4% shooting. Indiana’s offense was efficient in its win, scoring 123 points on 52.2% shooting against the Pels.
The Pacers have consistently favored an up-tempo offense with Tyrese Haliburton running the show, and Indiana's defense is far from elite.
Indiana's transition offense, three-point shooting, and newly established inside game will create plenty of scoring opportunities, and Dallas should have more breathing room against the Pacers than against the Rockets.
Zubac logged 34 minutes in the season opener, grabbing 15 rebounds to lead the team. Indiana went small-ball at center when he sat, as the Pacers had no other true big men seeing any playing time. Dallas’ shorthanded frontcourt won’t contain Zubac, and I’ll trade his rebounds line to 12.5.
Mavericks vs Pacers combo
- Pacers -5.5
- Over 237.5
- Ivica Zubac Over 11.5 rebounds
Mavericks vs Pacers player props
Mavericks player prop: Cooper Flagg Over 24.5 points
Flagg finished with 25 points only 21 times in 70 games as a rookie, but eight of those came across his last 15 full games, and he carried that momentum into Year 2.
Flagg’s points prop was just 19.5 in Game 1, but after scoring 32 against a strong Rockets defense, that number has understandably risen to 24.5.
Despite the five-point increase, I’m happy to back this line at 55% as Indiana plays at a Top-10 pace with the 16th-ranked Defensive Rating.
Kyrie Irving played only 24 minutes Wednesday, and he’s still ramping up from his ACL injury, which means Flagg will shoulder a hefty offensive load as Dallas’ clear go-to scoring option.
Flagg averaged just 4.9 free throws as a rookie, but he was aggressive in the opener, taking 13 trips to the charity stripe, which gives him a clear path to 25+ points against Indiana.
Pacers player prop: Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists
Tyrese Haliburton played well in his return from an Achilles tear suffered in the Finals. He logged 34 minutes and played a key role in the narrow win over New Orleans, finishing with 23 points and 12 assists.
Haliburton and the Pacers return to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, and the star guard will play his first home game since suffering the injury.
Since 2022-23, Haliburton has played 199 games, averaging 10.1 assists and handing out 10+ in 115 of them. He’s been even better at home, averaging 10.6 dimes and finishing with 10+ in 66 of 104 contests, good for a 63.5% hit rate.
With Zubac in the fold to operate as an effective screener and roll man, Hali has another strong avenue to dish assists. Facing Dallas’ Bottom-5 ranked defense and playing at home, Haliburton should cash the Over, and I’ll trade this one to 55%.
- Top picks: 0-1, -1.0 units
- Combos: 0-1, -1.0 units
Mavericks vs Pacers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Mavericks +5.5 (53%) | Pacers -5.5 (47%)
- Over/Under: Over 237.5 (50%) | Under 237.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Mavericks 33% | Pacers 67%
For the full slate of NBA matchups, check out our NBA odds board!
Mavericks vs Pacers trend
Dallas and Indiana have hit the Game Total Over in four of the last five head-to-head matchups. Find more NBA betting trends.
How to watch Mavericks vs Pacers
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Tip off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | KFAA-TV, Mavs.TV |
Mavericks vs Pacers latest injuries
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