Good gawd, I love me a good movie trailer. With holiday blockbuster season approaching, a bunch of quality "sneak peeks" have dropped in the past couple of weeks.
A well-done movie trailer can make the shittiest film look like “T2: Judgement Day”, and studios are getting really good at doing just that.
It’s tricky to know which films are worth your investment, especially when ticket prices are what they are. You have to decipher which movie trailers are telling the truth and which ones are hiding it.
The same goes for selecting your NFL picks now that the schedule has reached October.
The first four weeks in September served as a trailer for the upcoming slate, giving us glimpses of the best — and worst — of what’s to come.
Week 5 is very much a “curtains up” moment for many football teams, so we’ll see which bets are “Certified Fresh” and which ones will be streaming at home a week after opening.
I’m buying a ticket to these NFL predictions, giving you my three best underdogs for Week 5. Get your popcorn ready.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 6-6 ATS (-0.72 units)
NFL Week 5 predictions and picks
Giants +1.5
Buccaneers +3.5
Broncos +4.5
New York Giants (+1.5) at New Orleans Saints
Best bet: Giants +1.5
(-120 at FanDuel)
I’m not crazy about backing a rookie quarterback in his first career road start, but it’s still better than putting my faith in Russell Wilson.
The New York Giants offense isn’t why I’m backing Big Blue in Week 5, anyway. The defense is.
New York has been up against the toughest slate of QB competition in the land to start the season, facing Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert.
Now, the Giants’ stop unit takes on New Orleans Saints pivot Spencer Rattler. That’s like going from a hip-hop beef with Kendrick Lamar to a freestyle battle versus Darren Waller.
New York’s pass rush is dangerous. Shane Bowen has a versatile front seven that is generating pressure at the ninth-highest rate and ranks No. 5 in pass rush rating at PFF. The Giants have scored 18 QB hits and 10 sacks behind a successful scheme mixing blitz and four-man rush.
Rattler has suffered eight sacks over the past three outings behind a battered line (now without G Cesar Ruiz), sitting near the bottom of the league in pass block win rate at ESPN.
His PFF rating slips from 70.6 when unbothered to 56.4 under pressure, and Rattler struggles against man coverage — something Bowen is running almost exclusively. His inability to push the ball past the chains has many in the Crescent City begging for Rattler to be benched.
Perhaps this New York pass rush can force Kellen Moore’s hand and give NOLA fans their wish in Week 5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Best bet: Buccaneers +3.5
(-110 at bet365)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers tasted defeat for the first time last weekend, and it took a blocked punt touchdown and rusty hands to do so. The Bucs watched the Eagles jump out to a big lead early on, but Tampa didn’t pack it up and surged back from a 24-3 deficit.
However, every time it looked as though Baker Mayfield and the Buccos were rolling, returning WR Chris Godwin failed to make a play and finished the day with three catches on 10 targets in his first game since last October. Two turnovers compounded the special teams miscue and Godwin’s rust.
But beyond that, Tampa did a solid job.
The Bucs checked the Eagles to only 200 yards, including 88 yards on the ground, and they continue to rank among the elite run stop units in the land. We've also seen this aggressive Todd Bowles pass rush turn up the intensity after a flat start, rating No. 4 in pass rush win rate at ESPN while recording 10 sacks and 12 QB hits.
A matchup with Tampa Bay is a significant step up in competition for the Seattle Seahawks, especially when it comes to closing out games. We’ve seen Mike Macdonald's team sputter down the stretch against San Francisco and Arizona.
Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is a comeback king. All three wins have been delivered in fourth-quarter fashion, and even last week’s loss saw the Bucs outscore the Eagles 19-7 in the second half.
With the way the Bucs scratch and claw to the final whistle, that +3.5 holds more value than with most teams.
Denver Broncos (+4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Best bet: Broncos +4.5
(-110 at FanDuel)
The four to 4.5-point spread is something of a “no man’s land” in NFL oddsmaking.
Underdogs in that +4 to +4.5 range are not quite good enough to warrant a field goal spread, but not too far gone to draw something closer to +6. That lends itself to some notable ATS results.
So far this season, pups in that range are 5-1 against the spread.
Last season produced a dreadful record for underdogs between +4 and +4.5 (29.6%), but before 2024, those same-sized dogs barked to the tune of a 58.5% cover rate over the previous eight seasons. The crazy thing is that those teams won outright less than 45% of the time.
Good enough to cover, just not win. At +4.5, the Denver Broncos give me those vibes in Week 5.
Denver’s defense has lived up to the hype through four games, picking up where it left off last year. Its two losses have come on the road in tight battles against solid competition in Indianapolis and L.A., and the offense got to work out the kinks against Cincinnati on Monday, amassing more than 500 yards.
Although the Philadelphia Eagles are 4-0, they have astonishingly been outgained in all four games. The Eagles’ championship stop unit has played pedestrian defense, and the offense has all the spice of those stale rice cookies you give to teething babies.
Those historically funky results have seen the Eagles’ wins all come on strange circumstances:
A lightning delay cooled a shootout versus Dallas in Week 1.
Travis Kelce dropped a would-be TD for an Eagles INT in Week 2.
A blocked field goal and subsequent scoop-and-score edged the Rams in Week 3.
And... a blocked punt that turned into a special teams TD on the opening series made the difference against Tampa in Week 4.
Weird shit.
My NFL Underdogs column is 6-6 this season for -0.72 units.
Covers NFL betting tools
- NFL odds
- NFL picks
- NFL player props
- Super Bowl 60 odds
- Best NFL betting sites
- This week’s NFL matchups
More NFL Week 5 predictions from Covers
- Vikings vs. Browns predictions
- Raiders vs. Colts predictions
- Giants vs. Saints predictions
- Cowboys vs. Jets predictions
- Broncos vs. Eagles predictions
- Dolphins vs. Panthers predictions
- Texans vs. Ravens predictions
- Titans vs. Cardinals predictions
- Buccaneers vs. Seahawks predictions
- Lions vs. Bengals predictions
- Commanders vs. Chargers predictions
- Patriots vs. Bills predictions
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
