After a draining build-up, Iran turn their attention to the pitch for Monday’s opener against New Zealand, with a chance to take a big step towards the knockout rounds.
Both teams cruised through their qualifying campaigns, but my Iran vs. New Zealand predictions put more faith in the Iranians’ results against tougher opposition than the Kiwis faced on the road to the tournament.
Read on for my free World Cup picks ahead of this June 15 battle.
TOP PICK
Who will win Iran vs New Zealand: Iran (-120)
This summer is a golden opportunity for Iran to progress beyond the group stage for the first time, but a winning start here against New Zealand, Group G’s weakest squad, is critical to that dream.
The Iranians arrive in encouraging form – they lost just once in 16 Asian qualification games and thumped Costa Rica 5-0 earlier this year – and they’re clear favorites on Monday. Even so, I like this price for Amir Ghalenoei’s men, and it’s playable up to -140.
New Zealand’s World Cup warm-up games told us plenty about their limitations, especially a demoralizing 4-0 rout at the hands of Haiti. Facing so few stern tests in qualifying really hurts the Kiwis, leaving them to rely on the steady low block that frustrated England at times last weekend but left New Zealand with just 28% possession.
Look for a stingy Iran defense to shut down Kiwi striker Chris Wood, paving the way for a talented attack to create chances for frontman Mehdi Taremi, and the Iranians’ experience at the past three World Cups provides another big edge in this matchup.
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Iran vs New Zealand Over/Under Pick: Over 2.5 (+137)
This Iranian attack poses a real threat in the final third, scoring 2+ goals in eight of its last 11 games, including a 2-0 win over Mali earlier this month, and I’ll take the Over at plus money on Monday night.
Make no mistake, Iran will have to do the heavy lifting, but this first outing plays to their strengths. New Zealand’s back line lacks experience at this level, and they’ll be tested early and often, particularly by penalty box poacher Mehdi Taremi and a bustling Iran midfield.
The ease with which Haiti – currently two places above the Kiwis in the FIFA rankings – steamrolled Darren Bazeley’s squad last Saturday also points me to the Over. If Iran grab an early lead, the floodgates could open.
While New Zealand will gladly defend in numbers on Monday, it’s worth noting that they racked up 29 goals during their five qualifying contests. Yes, the opposition included minnows like Tahiti and New Caledonia, but Wood brings Premier League-caliber finishing.
Iran vs New Zealand projected lineup
Iran (4-2-3-1): Beiranvand; Rezaeian, Khalilzadeh, Kanaani, Hajsafi; Ezatolahi, Razzaghinia; Mohebi, Ghoddos, Ghayedi; Taremi
New Zealand (4-2-3-1): Crocombe; Payne, Surman, Boxall, Cacace; Bell, Stamenic; Just, Garbett, Singh; Wood
Iran vs New Zealand injuries
Iran: Alireza Jahanbakhsh RW (Questionable), Dennis Eckert FW (Questionable), Mehdi Torabi LW (Questionable), Roozbeh Cheshmi DM (Questionable).
New Zealand: Ryan Thomas CM (Doubtful)
Iran vs New Zealand weather
Weather will not be a factor as this game is being played inside a dome.
Iran vs New Zealand odds
 Iran |
 New Zealand |
|
|---|---|---|
| -120 | Moneyline | +359 |
| +240 | Draw | +240 |
| Over 2.5 (+137) | Total | Under 2.5 (-182) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Iran vs New Zealand
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date | Monday, June 15, 2026 |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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