Spain begins their quest for a second World Cup crown when they open Group H play on Monday against Cape Verde.
La Roja are the favorites to win the World Cup, while Cape Verde are expected to finish dead last in the group.
My Spain vs. Cape Verde predictions explain why the talent discrepancy should lead to a dominant Spanish victory.
Read on for my World Cup picks for Monday, June 15, with kickoff set for 12:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
TOP PICK
Who will win Spain vs Cape Verde: Spain -2.5 (-110)
Cape Verde’s qualification for their first World Cup is a great story. Unfortunately for them, the next chapter could be a sombering reality check.
Spain are the favorite to win the competition per the World Cup odds. Even though they aren’t at full strength, they could start their backups in this match and still win easily.
Outside of Portugal, there’s not another nation with a midfield comparable to La Roja’s central unit. Anchored by Rodri and Pedri, Spain prefers to pass teams into submission, averaging 669.7 accurate passes per match during UEFA World Cup qualification.
They also led all nations with 9.7 shots on target per match at the offensive end, while conceding just 2.4 xG in total at the other end. Given the wide gulf in talent, this sets up for a match where Cape Verde concedes multiple goals while struggling to find one of their own.
Look for Cape Verde to be held without a goal, while Spain should be able to name their own score. This is my best pick of the match, playable to -125 odds.
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Spain vs Cape Verde Over/Under Pick: Over 3.5 (+100)
When you look at Cape Verde’s results at face value, they look impressive. The 3-0 win over Serbia in their last warm–up friendly sticks out in particular.
For me, that may have been a detriment. It sets up a situation where Spain will be on a bit higher alert, and will know not to play with its food.
That’s why I’m expecting them to pick up a 4-0 win on Monday. Chile put four past Cape Verde in the spring, while the 110th-ranked side in the world, Libya, bagged three in a draw during World Cup qualification last fall.
It’s not the goals or the results that matter as much as how poorly they exposed Cape Verde’s goalkeeping situation to be. Chile’s four goals came on five shots on target, with Vozinha committing an error that led to one of them.
Vozinha is 39 years old and plays in Portugal’s second division. Even if Cape Verde stays compact in defense, Spain possesses multiple players who can test him from range with lethal accuracy.
Fabian Ruiz and Rodri are prime examples. Ruiz averaged a full shot from outside the box per match for PSG in Champions League play this season, while Rodri is a proven threat from distance.
Add in the finishing abilities of Mikel Oyarzabal and Ferran Torres, plus the fresh legs they can incorporate in the second half, and Spain might end up the top-scoring nation on Matchday 1. Back the Over up to -115.
Spain vs Cape Verde projected lineup
Spain (4-3-3): Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Ruiz, Rodri, Pedri; Ferran Torres; Oyarzabal, Baena
Cape Verde (4-2-3-1): Vozinha; Moreira, Costa, Borges, Paulo; Semedo, Pina; Mendes, Monteiro, Cabral; Livramento.
Spain vs Cape Verde injuries
Spain: Lamine Yamal (Questionable), Nico Williams (Questionable), Victor Munoz (Doubtful).
Cape Verde: No injuries to report.
Spain vs Cape Verde weather
The weather will not be a factor as the game is played in a dome.
Spain vs Cape Verde odds
 Spain |
 Cape Verde |
|
|---|---|---|
| -1011 | Moneyline | +2400 |
| +1329 | Draw | +1329 |
| Over 3.5 (+100) | Total | Under 3.5 (-104) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Spain vs Cape Verde
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Monday, June 15, 2026 |
| Time | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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