Titans vs Jaguars Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 11: Captain Kirk Helps Jags Offense Get Right

Following last week’s humiliating loss to the 49ers, the Jacksonville Jaguars will look to regroup at home as decent 7-point favorites in the Week 11 odds vs. the Tennessee Titans and their clawless offense. 

With Trevor Lawrence and the passing game having a great matchup and the receiving group dealing with more injuries, should bettors be banking on another big game from Christian Kirk who is 8-0 against his longest reception prop since Week 2?

I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Titans vs. Jaguars on November 19. 

Titans vs Jaguars odds

Titans vs Jaguars predictions

The Jacksonville Jaguars offense had a tough game last week facing the 49ers who were also coming out of the bye. In all, the Jags totaled just 221 yards but can easily get back on track against the Tennessee Titans and their Bottom-10 secondary.

Since Week 5, this is a Tennessee pass defense that ranks 24th in success rate vs. the pass and 27th in EPA/dropback. Its best coverage corner, Sean Murphy-Bunting, was also inactive last week and was limited at practice to begin the week.

There's quite a bit of sharp money on Trevor Lawrence odds, but my best play here is Christian Kirk’s Over 58.5 yards.

First off, THE BLITZ doesn’t love Lawrence’s Overs which has a lot to do with the 7-point spread, but it still has Kirk at 62.3 yards which creates a safe floor that is easy to see when checking Kirk’s game logs. 

The No. 1 receiver has at least 46 yards in each game since Week 2 and despite the Jaguars putting up just 221 yards of offense last week, Kirk had 102 of those through the air.

He had a 92% route share in that game and had 11 of the team's 20 targets, pushing his season target share to 24%.

Calvin Ridley was held to two or fewer chances for the second time in three games while No. 3 receiver and return man Jamal Agnew exited the game and was a DNP at practice on Wednesday. Additionally, Zay Jones was inactive last week and has been limited this week. He hasn’t played since Week 5.

With a safe floor and a great matchup vs. a poor secondary that's faced some poor passing teams over the last three weeks (Buccaneers, Steelers, and Falcons), Kirk will get his targets on Sunday. With how bad Will Levis’ offense has been, the Jags could dominate the possession and total play percentages, too. 

For those that also like high hit-rate bets, Kirk has hauled in a pass of at least 26 yards in eight straight games. His longest reception total sits at 21.5 yards. 

My best bet: Christian Kirk Over 58.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Titans vs Jaguars same-game parlay

Christian Kirk Over 58.5 receiving yards

Jaguars -6.5

Will Levis Under 212.5 passing yards

+450 at bet365

This is a full Will Levis fade as there's a chance if he continues to struggle, a healthy Ryan Tannehill could replace him during this game.

The difference between these two starting quarterbacks is too large to ignore and injuries to the Tennessee offensive line aren't going to help a run-first team vs. one of the best run defenses in football.

Kirk continues to soak up targets with a banged-up WR group while the Titans have an awful play-from-behind offense. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Titans vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis

Despite the Jaguars getting absolutely blown out by the 49ers last week, they moved from a look-ahead spread of -5.5 to as long as -7 as of Thursday afternoon. The significant move to -7 has more to do with how incapable this Tennessee offense is at putting up points.

Ryan Tannehill returned to full practice on Wednesday but this is still Levis’ offense. The Titans managed just 209 total yards (3.5 yards/play) last week vs a Tampa Bay defense that had allowed over 500 yards in the previous week to the Texans. 

The Titans have one of the worst red-zone offenses, have awful and uncreative play-calling, and Levis has been bad.

The rookie started his career off with a bang with a four-TD game, but he currently ranks 30th among QBs in success rate since Week 8 and has not thrown a TD in back-to-back weeks. He also ranks dead last in CPOE at -15.1%, per Next Gen Stats.

The Titans have O-line issues with possibly two starters out this week on top of starting LT Nicholas Petit-Frere who is on the IR. I can’t see this Tennessee offense backdooring this spread as the Jags had one of the best defenses in football heading into last week.

Jacksonville’s defense is a bad matchup for Mike Vrabel’s offense as the Jags excel vs. the run which could force Tennessee to have to rely on Levis' arm. However, the Titans have no issues running straight into good defenses as Levis can’t handle a big workload in the passing game.

I am so down on the Titans and can’t bring myself to back an Over or take them even as a 7-point dog. The total has fallen from 40.5 to 40 and the Titans currently have a team total of 16.5. 

The weather looks good in Jacksonville and this Jags’ passing game has a great matchup while their defensive strengths should highlight the poor passing game of the Titans. This could be a very lopsided game that could get ugly for Levis and the offense.  

Titans vs Jaguars betting trend to know

The Titans have hit the fourth-quarter Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+10.85 units / 56% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Jaguars.

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