A blown 18-point lead in the AFC Championship held the Kansas City Chiefs out of another Super Bowl appearance and could mark a metamorphosis for this team, with 2022 serving as the cocoon.
Am I getting a little too deep for you?
From the sounds of things, going deep is something the Chiefs will miss after trading away long-bomb specialist Tyreek Hill this offseason. With that deal came plenty of draft picks, which sets up the future foundations of the franchise — but that doesn’t mean Kansas City won’t compete.
Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the world, and he has plenty of ways to put up points. He’ll need to, because his defense lost many staples and is relying on young talent to grow while under constant bombardment from the nastiest schedule in the league.
We look into the best ways to make money with “Pat and his Mahomies” in our Kansas City Chiefs betting preview.
Kansas City Chiefs futures odds
| Futures bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +1,200 |
| To win conference | +625 |
| To win division | +195 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 10.5 (Over -130) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes -230 / No +195 |
Best futures bet: Under 10.5 wins (+110)
Fourteen. Fourteen spreads have the Chiefs as favorites in 2022 against a schedule that could potentially include six of the eight division winners this season. And beyond those opponents, you have a dump of playoff contenders pushing Andy Reid’s team to the limit almost every week.
The Chiefs have won the AFC West in six straight seasons and have played in the AFC Championship Game in each of the past four years. Maintaining this success is a remarkable yet unsustainable streak, which isn’t lost on the Chiefs’ front office.
That’s why KC dealt Hill to Miami for a wheelbarrow of picks and why it’ll lean on low-cost youngsters on defense rather than fork over the dough for high-priced veterans. Mahomes is in for the long run, and the Chiefs are setting up for long-term success, which means taking a breath in 2022.
If you still love Kansas City in the AFC West, wait until the midway mark of the schedule to make your move. The Chargers have a much lighter opening slate but could run into trouble in the back half of the season, opening the door for Mahomes & Co. to make a late push at the division crown — and at a discounted price come Week 9.
Kansas City Chiefs betting overview
What will win bets: Patrick Mahomes
Given a wet behind the ears defense and a high-powered rotation of opponents pumping up the Chiefs’ weekly Over/Under numbers, Kansas City has to score points to be in play in 2022. That begins and ends with Patrick Mahomes.
The Hill trade takes away one of the most dangerous targets in football and has some questioning Mahomes’ sustainability without Tyreek stretching the field, pointing to a down year in 2021 snowballing into something worse.
If by “down year” you mean passing for more than 4,800 yards and connecting on 37 touchdowns, then you’re seriously not appreciating just how great Mahomes truly is. Not only is he among the top QBs in dealing with pressure — both from pass rushes but also time/score — but he has 2022’s No. 1-rated offensive line watching his back.
Competition is fierce, but the spreads are slimmer. And while a revolving door of quality QBs keeps coming after KC in 2022, Mahomes will give the Chiefs the edge in that department every single Sunday.
What will lose bets: Defense
The Chiefs will cross their fingers that their young stars and draft picks mature at a rapid rate in 2022, given the quality of offense lining up across from them. Ten of the Chiefs’ 17 games come against foes ranked Top 15 in EPA per play in 2021 (six vs. Top 10), and that doesn’t include a pair of games with both Denver and Las Vegas — two offenses on the up-and-up.
Kansas City’s defense has been terribly inconsistent for years, and besides the promise of a potent pass rush — which showed up in the second half of 2021 — KC ranked 24th in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and was 23rd in EPA allowed per play.
Many veterans are gone from this group, and while the front office devoted plenty of picks to beefing up the stop unit — thanks in part to the Hill trade — KC’s asking those inexperienced defenders and top prospects to pull a Tom Hanks and get BIG overnight while facing a lineup of lethal scoring attacks.
Kansas City Chiefs game-by-game odds
Lookahead lines have Kansas City as a favorite in 14 games in 2022, and that’s actually a downtick from 2021, in which the Chiefs entered as the betting chalk in 15 of 17 contests and faced an average spread of -6.75. This year, that average spread is way down to -3.64 with KC up against not only the fifth toughest strength of schedule but also the hardest slate of rival passers in my QB SOS.
Kansas City’s five losses in 2021 came to elite company, falling to a healthy Baltimore in Week 2, the Bolts, Bills, AFC No. 1 seed Tennessee, and Cincinnati (and then again in OT in the AFC title game). The 2022 calendar includes four of those foes as well as NFC West heavyweights San Francisco and Los Angeles, and tosses Tom Brady and the Bucs in for good measure.
Eleven spreads are between -3 and +3, and the Chiefs have been cash money against those close lines, boasting a 10-5 SU record and 10-4-1 ATS mark in games with field goal lines (fave or dog) since Mahomes took over in 2018.
We also find KC giving 6.5 points or more in four contests, a spread situation that isn’t as sound. The Chiefs are 35-4 SU in those games but 19-19-1 ATS as favorites of more than six in the past four seasons.
| Week | Opponent | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Arizona | -3 | 53 |
| 2 | vs. L.A. Chargers | -3 | 53 |
| 3 | @ Indianapolis | -3 | 49.5 |
| 4 | @ Tampa Bay | +2.5 | 53 |
| 5 | vs. Las Vegas | -6.5 | 53 |
| 6 | vs. Buffalo | PK | 54.5 |
| 7 | @ San Francisco | PK | 48.5 |
| 8 | Bye | ||
| 9 | vs. Tennessee | -6.5 | 51 |
| 10 | vs. Jacksonville | -11 | 49 |
| 11 | @ L.A. Chargers | +2.5 | 53 |
| 12 | vs. L.A. Rams | -3 | 52 |
| 13 | @ Cincinnati | -2.5 | 50 |
| 14 | @ Denver | -1 | 48.5 |
| 15 | @ Houston | -10 | 48.5 |
| 16 | vs. Seattle | -11 | 48.5 |
| 17 | vs. Denver | -4 | 48.5 |
| 18 | @ Las Vegas | -2.5 | 49.5 |
Kansas City Chiefs pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
I still have the Chiefs rated almost neck-and-neck with Buffalo. Reid and Mahomes are a Hall of Fame duo that isn’t going to go away quietly. The loss of Hill is overvalued in the market, in my opinion.
Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!
Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)
Kansas City Chiefs early season forecast
The Chiefs are field-goal favorites at Arizona in Week 1, taking on a Cardinals team without its top receiving threat and a secondary that many claims will be among the worst in the NFL. Not what you want when facing a Kansas City offense out to prove it can still cook without the Cheetah. This spread is starting to hang a hook at -3.5 while the total is as high as 53.5 points. Week 1 totals of 50 or more points have produced a 14-9-1 Over/Under mark since 2000 (60.4% Overs).
The pecking order in the AFC West takes shape when the L.A. Chargers (the team I picked to win the division) come to Arrowhead on a short week for Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Kansas City is installed as 3-point chalk, facing a Chargers team that doesn’t fear the KC crowds. The Bolts are 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS inside Arrowhead since moving to L.A. in 2017.
The Chiefs get extra time to prep for a trip to Indianapolis, set between -2.5 and -3 visiting the Colts in Week 3. Kansas City is 20-6 SU, but just 13-13 ATS as a road fave since 2018 (when Mahomes took over), and this will serve as Indy’s home opener after playing the first two games on the road.
Kansas City Chiefs spot bet
Week 15: @ Houston (-10, 48.5)
This late-season matchup with hapless Houston is the definition of a “trap game”, according to betting folklore. So many situational handicapping spots come into play, coupled with a beefy double-digit spread as a visitor.
Kansas City will close out a rough road stretch against the Texans after visiting the Chargers in Week 11, hosting the Rams in Week 12, then playing three straight contests away from home: at Cincinnati, at Denver, and at Houston.
Not only is Week 15 a major dip in intensity compared to the previous games, but that letdown comes off a Sunday night showdown in the thin air of Denver in what will be a vital AFC West decision. Tack on a spread that could climb past 10 points by the time December 18 rolls around, and you’re dealing with one of the ugliest spot bets of 2022.
Kansas City Chiefs totals tip
The Chiefs’ 2022 totals tell the tale of a team with a great offense, but little pushback on the defensive side — especially when you consider the competition stepping up to the line this season. Reports from camp say KC’s stop unit is aggressive and pressing for game-changing plays (INTs and fumbles), which can also lead to them allowing big gains (see: 2021 Cowboys).
As for the offense, trading away Hill leaves some unknowns, but I put my chips on Mahomes and Reid working magic with what they got. This is a burly receiving corps that can pick up plenty of YAC, complemented by a few speedsters who can hit those home runs over the top.
The Chiefs’ overall pace of play has ranked out middle of the pack in tempo since Mahomes took over under center, but they’ve constantly been among the fastest in seconds per play in first halves, building a lead before pumping the breaks in the final 30 minutes.
According to the 2022 spreads and quality of SOS, Kansas City will find itself playing with the lead less in the second half and may have to sustain that up-tempo attack for 60 minutes — another area that Reid emphasized during training camp.
Those weekly tall totals may make the contrarian bettors gun-shy, but I’m steering into those numbers by looking at Overs early on with Kansas City.
Star power: Patrick Mahomes props
| Player prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| MVP | +900 |
| Most passing yards | +800 |
| Most passing TDs | +900 |
| Passing TD total | 34.5 (Over -120) |
| Passing yards total | 4,650.5 (Over -110) |
| Passing INT total | 10.5 (Under -115) |
Best prop: Most passing touchdowns (+900)
I’m not a big season-long prop player, but Mahomes to lead the NFL in touchdown passes at 9/1 feels like a gift from the gambling gods. I highlighted this wager in one of my NFL notebooks earlier in the summer, touching on KC’s new receivers and the size advantage this unit will have over opponents.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (6-foot-1), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6-foot-4), and Travis Kelce (6-foot-5) can throw their weight around on contested balls in the red zone. Hell, Josh Gordon is a big target, too (6-foot-3) should he make the roster.
Mecole Hardman and rookie WR Skyy Moore are deep threats, along with pass-catching RBs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon. That’s more than enough capable targets for Mahomes to find paydirt.
The Chiefs’ blemish on offense in recent years has been red-zone TD percentage, with KC leaving points on the table (ranked 11th, 16th, and 11th last three years). Kansas City can’t afford to miss those shots and, as mentioned, will be going all out from whistle to whistle most weeks.
You could stack this prop pick with the Over 34.5 TD throws from Mahomes as well as Chiefs to lead the league in scoring, which is out there in the 9/1 range as well.
Kansas City Chiefs trend to know
Andy Reid is one of the better game planners out there, and giving him extra time to prep usually benefits bettors.
Kansas City won and covered against Denver in Week 13, fresh from a week off in Week 12 last season. That result improves Reid to 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS off a bye as a head coach, going back to his first season in Philadelphia back in 1999.
The Chiefs get to put their feet up in Week 8 before hosting Tennessee in Week 9.
Post-bye week game:
- Week 9 vs. Tennessee (-6.5)
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