Week 1 comes to a close tonight at Arrowhead Stadium, where Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos as 2.5-point favorites on Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
My Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions side with the visitors and the points, with Mahomes’ injury concerns giving me pause despite Kansas City’s home-field advantage.
My NFL picks for Monday, Sept. 14, dig into Mahomes’ status while also highlighting a Bo Nix-Jaylen Waddle connection that could quickly become a problem for opposing defenses.
For more on tonight’s matchup, Jason Logan has also broken down his favorite Broncos vs. Chiefs props for the Week 1 finale.
TOP PICK
Broncos vs Chiefs prediction: Broncos +2.5
I know both quarterbacks are coming back from injuries, but Patrick Mahomes' ligaments worry me, and worry me even more when his backside protection is going to be a second-string undrafted rookie facing off vs. Nik Bonitto and this pass rush.
The Kansas City Chiefs have concerns on the other side of the ball, too. This secondary lost 75% of its starters and a few more depth pieces. It's a brand-new group that might take time to execute the system.
The Denver Broncos should even be a little better in their deep passing game with the addition of Jaylen Waddle and the chemistry he is building with Bo Nix. Sorry, Chiefs fans.
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Broncos vs Chiefs combo
Patrick Mahomes is running, whether he likes it or not, and his rushing total is already priced into the injury. Fifteen yards is 10 yards shorter than his season average last year. He is being priced as if he is playing with a cane.
Jaylen Waddle has looked great with Bo Nix so far, and the deep ball that they might be able to unlock could cause issues for this revamped Kansas City secondary. Waddle averaged 57 yards per game with a noodle-armed quarterback in Miami last year.
At Nix's price for two TDs, it's hard to pass up vs. the aforementioned new K.C. secondary that is replacing 75% of its starters from last year and other depth pieces.
Broncos vs Chiefs combo +600
- Patrick Mahomes 15+ rushing yards
- Jaylen Waddle 60+ receiving yards
- Bo Nix 2+ passing TDs
Broncos vs Chiefs touchdown scorer: Jaylen Waddle
I bought this at 3x with a fair price of 2.7x. I want this new deep connection to work, and if the talk out of camp is true, this is a great price.
Nix knows how to avoid sacks, and Waddle's 13.06 aDOT last year would have led the Broncos. Nix just needs to improve his deep ball, which ranked in the bottom third of the league last year.
He still managed to throw for nearly 4,000 yards, and hopefully new playcaller Davis Webb can get more out of his QB.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs lost three of their four leading snap-getters in the secondary, including CB Trent McDuffie, S Bryan Cook, and CB Jaylen Watson.
There's plenty of uncertainty in this new secondary, and the early part of the season is likely the best time to fade it before DC Steve Spagnuolo works his magic.
Broncos vs Chiefs player prop: Patrick Mahomes 15+ rushing yards
The projection is calling for 23.03 rushing yards, and a total I'm playing to 18.5.
If you’re Denver DC Vance Joseph, your game plan has to make Patrick Mahomes mobile and test that rebuilt knee, and that isn’t a debate. The Chiefs are going to want to run the ball with their new toy in Kenneth Walker and an undrafted rookie tackle protecting Mahomes' backside, but when Mahomes drops back, his instinct will kick in, his knee will be an afterthought, and he can top this prop in one third-and-long carry.
The injured knee is already priced into Mahomes' rushing total, which sits at 14.5 yards when it was 24 yards on average last year and as high as 30.5. He won't want to run, but the QB does not get to dictate that vs. a defense that might be getting in the backfield all game.
COVERS INTEL: Patrick Mahomes has rushed for 15+ yards in 35 of his last 52 games dating back to the 2023 season. His average rushing total last year was 24.5 yards.Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
Broncos vs Chiefs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Broncos +2.5 | Chiefs -2.5
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (51%) | Under 43.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Broncos 44% | Chiefs 56%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Broncos vs Chiefs weather
Storms in the area could impact the game, but some forecasts are calling for them to hit after the game, while others are more pessimistic. Windy.com is calling for a dry game with 12-mph winds and gusts up to 25 mph, from corner to corner.
Keep an eye on that storm, but for now, I'll be handicapping this game with good conditions and only slight wind concerns.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Broncos vs Chiefs trend to know
The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Broncos vs Chiefs
| Location | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Monday, Sept. 14, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN/ABC |
Broncos vs Chiefs latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
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