NFL First Touchdown Scorer Picks & Odds: Week 8

How is it Week 8 already? We're at an interesting point in the season, with decent sample sizes, which makes me bullish on my Week 8 first touchdown scorer picks.

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Best Week 8 first touchdown scorer picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Pick	Probability
T.J. Hockenson	6%
Chase Brown	17%
Jonah Coleman	8%

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First TD scorer prediction #1: T.J. Hockenson

At 6-0, the Minnesota Vikings enter the game against the Detroit Lions as underdogs, but they’ve confounded experts all season, and TJ Hockenson might be able to exploit the home team’s soft underbelly at tight end. 

To say that the tight end position has been the Achilles heel for the Lions so far this season is an understatement, with 10 TDs allowed to the position in just six games.

Meanwhile, Hockenson comes in fresh off scoring in his last game, with a grab against the Indianapolis Colts. That game also saw his joint-second-most targets, and he leads the team in red-zone targets.

• Matchup: Vikings vs Lions
• Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Ford Field
• TV: FOX

First TD scorer prediction #2: Chase Brown

With just one touchdown to his name, it’s fair to say that this has been a slow start to the season for Chase Brown. It’s worth remembering that something similar happened over the past two seasons, before he exploded in the second half of the year.

Last year, much like this season, he entered Week 8 with just one TD before scoring twice, and there's reason to be confident here.

The team clearly still believes in him. Last week, he out-carried Samaje Perine 11 to four, was on the field for 75% of offensive snaps and ran a route on 63% of the Cincinnati Bengals’ passing plays. Only six teams give up more rushing yards per game to opposing running backs than the Tennessee Titans.

• Matchup: Titans vs Bengals
• Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Paycor Stadium
• TV: CBS

First TD scorer prediction #3: Jonah Coleman

The Denver Broncos welcome the Kansas City Chiefs to Mile High in a game that is basically a pick’em. That’s led me to look for value, and running back Jonah Coleman feels like the man for it. 

The rookie returned from IR last week and instantly impressed, putting up strong numbers and passing the eye test, too.

He played 50% of the team’s snaps and was tied for the most high-value touches in the RB corps with two. He was clearly the better rusher, averaging 6.0 yards per carry and matching the other two backs' combined nine carries.

He was also the only one with a positive mark in rushing yards over expected (RYOE), averaged 6.0 yards per carry, had more carries than the other two RBs combined, and was more efficient.

It’s only a matter of time before he takes over this backfield and his workload keeps growing. His role is being undervalued by so many, and he’s also the most efficient running back on the roster. Scoop up that value while you can.

• Matchup: Chiefs vs Broncos
• Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 1 at 4:25 p.m. ET
• Location: Empower Field at Mile High
• TV: CBS

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