As fast as it came, NFL Week 1 closes out on Monday Night Football.
The Denver Broncos try to spoil Patrick Mahomes' triumphant return when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs in prime time.
While this is only the first game of the season, it could go a long way in determining the AFC West. And a game this big deserves some extra action.
I size up the individual markets for my NFL picks, finding some great edges for my Broncos vs. Chiefs prop picks for Monday, Sept. 14.
Best Broncos vs Chiefs props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Kenneth Walker III – Yes 60+ rushing yards |
54% |
 Courtland Sutton – Yes 40+ receiving yards |
55% |
| Rashee Rice – Yes 1+ Touchdown |
33% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Kenneth Walker III – Yes 60+ rushing yards
The Kansas City Chiefs' big offseason splash was landing Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, giving KC its best running back in some time.
Walker looked strong in the summer and will get a ton of touches as Patrick Mahomes works off the rust. New/old offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy wants to establish the ground game early to set up misdirection and power play-action passes.
On top of that, the Denver Broncos bring one of the best pass rushes after Mahomes, and two buckets of Walker will help cool down the heat, especially with the KC O-line hurting.
Projections range from 62 to as many as 75 rushing yards for Walker III on MNF.
Prop pick #2: Courtland Sutton – Yes 40+ receiving yards
Courtland Sutton takes a step back as WR2 in Denver with Jaylen Waddle's arrival, but this could be a big plus for the veteran. We’re going to buy back the dip with No. 14.
Last season, Sutton’s receiving yard totals usually sat north of 50 yards, with peaks to 60.5 O/U. With Waddle on the field, oddsmakers have hacked those numbers to 40 yards.
He’s dealt with double coverage as the Broncos’ top target the past couple seasons and is now getting softer members of the rival secondary across from him.
Sutton is always a threat to pop off for a big play (ninth among WRs in 20+ receptions in 2025), and Broncos offensive coordinator Davis Webb is now calling plays, looking to push the ball beyond the sticks.
He was busy in last year’s matchups with the Chiefs, drawing eight and 10 targets for outputs of 59 and 40 yards. Kansas City’s secondary lost a lot of talent to free agency and projects to be among the worst in the NFL entering Week 1.
Forecasts sit north of 40 yards for Sutton, with highs flirting with 50 yards on MNF.
Prop pick #3: Rashee Rice – Yes 1+ Touchdown
Rashee Rice is expected to be a full go for the Chiefs. And when he's healthy, Rice finds the end zone.
He played in only eight games last year, due to suspension and a late-season concussion, and still finished with five touchdowns. He’s logged just a dozen contests the past two seasons, with touchdowns in seven.
He’s Kansas City’s primary slot option, which bodes well versus the Broncos’ pressure. Mahomes will look to get rid of the ball quickly, and Rice offers a dangerous short-yardage target.
Denver got beaten up by slot receivers last season, giving up the sixth most fantasy points to the position.
Player projections for Rice sit as high as a 51% chance of a touchdown, which has me playing the 1+ TD as high as 40% on Monday.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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