It feels like a throwback AFC East race as the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills square off for first place in the division.
The longtime rivals meet in a massive Week 15 showdown at Gillette Stadium, and Bills quarterback Josh Allen has never been one to shy away when the stakes are highest.
I go back to one of my favorite bets of the 2025 season with my Bills vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks for today's AFC East clash.
Bills vs Patriots prediction
Bills vs Patriots Best bet: Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100)
I’ve gone back to the well time and time again when it comes to Josh Allen’s touchdown passes prop.
I bet it last week against the Cincinnati Bengals (he threw for three TDs) and even with the New England Patriots offering much stiffer opposition, I’m taking it again with the Over 1.5 TD throws paying plus-money in Week 15.
What else can we say about Allen, really?
He’s put this shaky Buffalo Bills roster on his back in 2025. Allen has thrown for 33 touchdowns and run for another 12 scores. And that perhaps is the biggest obstacle in the way of him tossing two or more tuddies this Sunday — his ability to run.
The Patriots do present one of the toughest run-stopping units in the league and have allowed only five rushing touchdowns on the season. On the flip side of this, they’ve given up 21 passing touchdowns (11th most), including two touchdown throws to Allen during New England’s 23-20 win at Orchard Park.
The Patriots’ pass defense isn’t great, but has been let off the hook by a schedule loaded with limp-armed quarterbacks. New England ranks 17th in opponent success rate per dropback and 27th in Pass Defense DVOA at FTN – two analytics that account for strength of schedule.
A soft slate of rival QBs has concealed that weakness, but against above-average passers, the Patriots allowed two or more passing touchdowns to Tua Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, Michael Penix Jr., and Allen in Week 5.
Allen has recorded 2+ touchdown passes in eight of his 13 games this season. He did suffer through a scoring lull in the two games prior to last week’s comeback win over Cincinnati, but was missing several members of his receiving corps in that span.
That group is looking much better entering Week 15, especially with the return of Allen’s favorite red-zone target, tight end Dalton Kincaid. Running back James Cook has also seen an uptick in action as a receiver, and while the Pats plug up the rushing lanes, they are susceptible to pass-catching RBs.
Week 15 forecasts for Allen call for between 1.6 and 2.0 touchdown throws. Allen does his best work when the calendar flips to December, averaging more than 1.8 TD passes per December game over his career.
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Bills vs Patriots same-game parlay
The Pats haven’t faced many elite QBs, but when they do, they give up passing touchdowns.
TreVeyon Henderson picks on a poor Buffalo run stop and gets inside the end zone in Week 15.
I like the Patriots getting points at home. They’re the more complete team and coming off a bye.
Bills vs Patriots SGP
- New England Patriots +1.5
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- TreVeyon Henderson anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Pressure is on for Pats
Dalton Kincaid is back from injury and scored another touchdown last week.
Bills vs Patriots SGP
- Patriots +1.5
- Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- TreVeyon Henderson anytime touchdown
- Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown
Bills vs Patriots game predictions
Bills vs Patriots moneyline prediction
This could very well be a game decided on a last-second score. It’s a tight spread, but I’m taking the points with the Patriots and giving them the nod to win outright, having the better defense and two weeks to scheme for the Bills.
Final score: Patriots 24, Bills 21.
Bills vs Patriots spread prediction
If you read my NFL Underdogs column, you’ll see why I’m grabbing points with the Patriots. I believe the sum of their parts is greater than Allen and I don’t trust the Bills defense after they were lucky to escape with a win last week.
Bills vs Patriots Over/Under prediction
This total has ticked up from an opener of 48.5 to 49.5 points. I’m leaning Under, as this rivalry will feel like a playoff game. I don’t think the Patriots want this to dissolve into a shootout with Allen and will run against a bad Buffalo run stop unit.
Bills vs Patriots odds
- Spread: Buffalo -1.5 | New England +1.5
- Moneyline: Buffalo -118 | New England +100
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Bills vs Patriots trend to know
Since 2021, the Over/Under is 10-19 (66% Unders) when the Bills are road favorites. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Patriots.
How to watch Bills vs Patriots
| Location | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date | Sunday, December 14, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Bills vs Patriots latest injuries
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Not intended for use in MA.
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