The cheese stands alone on Thursday Night Football when the Carolina Panthers visit the Green Bay Packers.
My Panthers vs. Packers prop picks measure the matchups for this midweek meeting, weighing schemes, injuries, and player projections to give you an edge with my top NFL picks for Oct. 29.
Best Panthers vs Packers props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Matthew Golden 70+ yards receiving — NO |
60% |
 Jalen Coker 5+ receptions |
57% |
| Bryce Young 1+ interceptions |
54% |
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Prop pick #1: Matthew Golden 70+ yards receiving — NO
The Green Bay Packers' speedy wide receiver has drawn a ton of targets over the past two games, seeing 25 passes thrown his way. However, drops have kept Matthew Golden from making the most of that involvement, as he's caught just a dozen of those balls.
Last week, Golden played through shoulder pain and finished with six catches on 12 targets for just 39 yards receiving in the loss to Detroit. He’s listed on the injury report with that same shoulder issue, as well as a foot ailment, ahead of this quick turnaround.
On top of those injuries, this matchup with the Carolina Panthers is a tough one. Carolina doesn’t allow many explosive plays (the second-fewest pass plays of 20-plus yards) and ranks third-lowest in targets to WR2s, while allowing the fifth-fewest yards to that position.
The Panthers also limit air yards to rival receivers. Golden leads Green Bay in air yards per reception, but with the Packers’ offensive line missing plenty of pieces, quarterback Jordan Love won’t have time in the pocket for deeper routes to develop.
Love is already feeling pressure at the ninth-highest rate per dropback and stares down a Carolina pass rush ranked sixth in pressure rate and in blitz percentage.
Some of Golden’s projections for Thursday night flirt with 70 receiving yards, but most models come in lower, with a low of 48. My number sits at 63 yards for the second-year WR, but I lean toward the Under given the matchup and injury concerns.
Prop pick #2: Jalen Coker 5+ receptions
Carolina receiver Jalen Coker practiced in full ahead of TNF and draws a favorable matchup against this Packers’ pass defense.
Coker is the Panthers’ WR2 and has had solid success out of the slot, especially against zone coverage.
Heading into Week 8, Coker leads Carolina’s receiving corps in PFF rating against zone coverage (20th among all WRs). Green Bay runs one of the higher rates of zone defense and has allowed an NFL-high 7.7 average targets to WR2s.
Coker is coming off a quiet Week 7 in which he drew only four targets and caught one pass. However, he played fewer snaps in the second half of a blowout loss to Tampa Bay, finishing with only 37. He’s played a bigger role in previous games.
Coker had at least nine targets in three of his four previous outings, reeling in six, eight, and eight catches, respectively.
Projections for Thursday all lean toward five or more receptions, with my number at 5.2.
Prop pick #3: Bryce Young 1+ interceptions
Bryce Young has been working hard to shed his “bust” label over the past two seasons.
Games like Week 7’s defeat don’t help.
Carolina’s QB went 14-for-27 for just 163 yards and threw two interceptions vs. Tampa Bay. He has little time to shake off that stink before traveling to Lambeau Field for TNF.
That quick turnaround also leaves little time to patch holes in the Panthers’ pass protection, with OT Taylor Moton lost for the season this past Sunday and LG Damien Lewis listed as questionable.
Young was already facing pressure at the second-highest rate per dropback among all QBs. Those collapsing pockets have translated into hurried throws and accuracy issues. He has the fifth-highest bad-throw rate and the 15th-lowest on-target percentage.
The Packers are a top-10 pass defense in advanced metrics like DVOA and EPA allowed per dropback, and they've benefited from a league-best nine interceptions.
Several models put Young’s interception probability at 70% or higher, and given Carolina's pass-positive game script as a road underdog, I agree with the high side of those projections.
- Prop picks: 27-15, +10.94 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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