Bills @ Patriots Picks & Props

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.. Stefon Diggs's 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 53.8.. Stefon Diggs's receiving talent has worsened this season, compiling a mere 4.6 adjusted receptions compared to 5.7 last season.. This year, the imposing Bills defense has allowed a paltry 62.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 10th-lowest rate in football.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. James Cook's 60.7% snap rate this season marks a noteworthy growth in his offensive usage over last season's 50.0% mark.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Khalil Shakir's pass-catching performance diminished this year, accumulating a measly 4.1 adjusted receptions vs 5.1 last year.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Dalton Kincaid's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 43.0.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.. Hunter Henry's 38.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 44.2.. Hunter Henry's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 75.1% to 70.6%.. This year, the formidable Bills defense has given up a measly 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.. This year, the daunting Buffalo Bills defense has yielded a measly 77.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 6th-best rate in the league.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Bills ranks as the best in football this year.. Josh Allen's passing precision has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.7% to 71.2%.. With a stellar rate of 1.57 per game (83rd percentile), Josh Allen rates among the leading touchdown throwers in the league this year.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the NFL versus the New England Patriots defense this year (72.8% Adjusted Completion%).. This year, the deficient New England Patriots defense has given up a staggering 1.62 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-biggest rate in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.. As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in football.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in football versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (66.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 31.1 passes this week, on balance: the 5th-fewest among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 31.1 passes this week, on balance: the 5th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.. This year, the daunting Buffalo Bills defense has given up a mere 188.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 3rd-fewest in football.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in football versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (66.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 31.1 passes this week, on balance: the 5th-fewest among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 31.1 passes this week, on balance: the 5th-fewest among all quarterbacks.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.. After averaging 64.0 air yards per game last year, Stefon Diggs has been a disappointment this year, now pacing 53.0 per game.. Stefon Diggs's 46.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 53.8.. Stefon Diggs's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a noteable reduction in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 3.9% rate.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Dalton Kincaid's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 43.0.. Dalton Kincaid's talent in picking up extra yardage have declined this year, notching just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.16 mark last year.. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 4th-best in football.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.. The projections expect Hunter Henry to total 5.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs.. Hunter Henry has put up a colossal 43.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to TEs.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.. Hunter Henry has been one of the top pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an excellent 47.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

In regards to air yards, James Cook grades out in the towering 88th percentile among running backs this year, averaging a superb 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Bills ranks as the best in football this year.. James Cook profiles as one of the leading pass-game running backs this year, averaging a stellar 17.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.. James Cook's 96.7% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a material growth in his pass-catching ability over last season's 84.6% mark.. The Patriots pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (84.9%) vs. running backs this year (84.9%).

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.. When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Patriots profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.. As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Buffalo's collection of LBs has been awful this year, grading out as the 9th-worst in the league.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 53.0% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. After averaging 36.0 air yards per game last season, Khalil Shakir has seen a big downtick this season, currently sitting at 23.0 per game.. Khalil Shakir's 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season indicates a substantial diminishment in his receiving prowess over last season's 56.0 figure.. Khalil Shakir's skills in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this season, compiling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.82 mark last season.

The opposing side have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (134 per game) against the Bills defense this year.. The Bills safeties project as the 29th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. This year, the daunting Patriots run defense has yielded a feeble 85.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the best in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the 9th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. This week, James Cook is forecasted by the model to land in the 95th percentile among running backs with 20.1 carries.. James Cook has been a much bigger part of his team's ground game this season (66.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (50.9%).. James Cook has run for many more adjusted yards per game (95.0) this season than he did last season (68.0).. With a fantastic record of 5.34 adjusted yards per carry (90th percentile), James Cook stands as one of the top RBs in the NFL this year.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have only 124.5 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The Bills safeties project as the 29th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 5th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 36.0% run rate.. The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The Bills safeties project as the 29th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.