Auburn went from stunning Georgia to getting run off its own field by LSU in just one week. My Auburn vs. Ole Miss prediction focuses on what went wrong last Saturday, with the Rebels favored to cover the 13.5-point spread.
Ole Miss is without top rusher Kewan Lacy, but the Rebels’ offense still ranks among the most efficient in the country, and Auburn’s passing game hasn’t shown it can win a shootout.
Check out why we’re laying the points with Ole Miss and locking in the Under for Saturday’s matchup in our latest college football picks for Week 9.
Who will win Auburn vs Ole Miss: Ole Miss -13.5
I would play the Ole Miss Rebels to 51%.
LSU sacked Byrum Brown six times and held the Auburn Tigers to 1.9 yards per carry last week, exposing how little the Tigers can do once the run game stalls. Brown ranks 102nd of 139 qualified quarterbacks at -0.03 EPA per dropback, and Ole Miss allows just a 40.9% passing success rate, 33rd nationally.
The Rebels rank ninth in opponent-adjusted offensive EPA per play, while Auburn’s defense allows a 45.5% success rate, 85th nationally. Losing Kewan Lacy stings less than it sounds. Makhi Frazier owns a 52.9% rushing success rate to Lacy’s 42.3%. Ole Miss has a clear path to controlling this game in both trenches.
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TOP PICK
Auburn vs Ole Miss Over/Under pick: Under 57.5
The Under is my top pick in this matchup, and I’d play it down to 56.5.
Brown produces 0.35 EPA per rush, 20th among qualified runners, and Ole Miss owns the SEC’s worst run defense at 161.1 rushing yards allowed per game. Auburn will lean on that matchup, and a quarterback-heavy ground plan keeps the clock moving.
What Auburn can’t do is push the ball downfield. The Tigers average 5.28 yards per dropback, 122nd nationally. Ole Miss also held the ball for just 25:03 at Texas. The Rebels can reach the mid-30s, but Auburn landing in the teens keeps this under 57.5.
COVERS INTEL: The metrics show Auburn’s offense allowing havoc on 17.1% of its plays, 102nd nationally, while Ole Miss’s defense creates it on 15.8% of snaps.Auburn vs Ole Miss combo
This combo follows the themes outlined above. The main one? Auburn can’t sustain drives through the air, which is why the Tigers have been one of my go-to Under teams this season.
If Brown gets bottled up the way LSU managed, Auburn has no second gear, which pushes the Under and Auburn’s team total the same direction. If he breaks a few runs instead, they likely come on long, clock-draining drives that still favor the Under.
Auburn vs Ole Miss combo
- Ole Miss moneyline
- Auburn Team Total Under 21.5
- Under 57.5
- Top picks: 8-4, +3.73 units
- Combos: 3-9, +5.03 units
Auburn vs Ole Miss odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Auburn +12.5 | Ole Miss -12.5
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 (50%) | Under 56.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Auburn 81% | Ole Miss 19%
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Auburn vs Ole Miss weather
Saturday’s forecast in Oxford calls for cloudy skies, a high near 77 degrees, and light southeast winds around 5 mph. There is a 30% chance of showers after 1 p.m. The weather should not meaningfully impact the game, though a passing shower could slow things down in the second half.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Auburn vs Ole Miss trend to know
Ole Miss has won nine of its last 12 games on the moneyline (+7.20 units, 22% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Auburn vs. Ole Miss.
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How to watch Auburn vs Ole Miss
| Location | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 12:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Auburn vs Ole Miss latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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