College Football Predictions Week 6: Brad Powers’ CFB Best Bets

Boise State is 159-22 in conference action since 2000. The Broncos rarely get to play with revenge, but that is the case here.

Last year, Boise State lost to Fresno State 30-7 as a 17-point home favorite after quarterback Maddux Madsen got injured and didn't return. This year will be different.

I have upgraded Boise State’s power rating since the start of the season. After nearly upsetting Oregon in the opener, the Broncos easily defeated fellow Group of Six playoff contenders Western Michigan and Memphis.

On the other side, Fresno State has won and covered in four straight games. However, its power rating hasn't changed since the start of the season. 

Why? Because the Bulldogs have had a couple of misleading wins. Fresno was +4 in turnover margin against San Jose State. The Bulldogs also got outgained Rice as a double-digit favorite, allowing 344 rushing yards.

One stat I like to analyze this time of year is tackle-for-loss margin (TFLs minus TFLs allowed). It is a simple way to see how a team is disrupting the line of scrimmage.

Boise State is +17 in TFL margin this season. Fresno State is -3. I like Boise State to control the line of scrimmage.

Finally, I expect Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen to play with a “chip on his shoulder” after getting hurt in last year’s loss to Fresno State.

Madsen is playing the best ball of his career, ranking No. 8 nationally in QBR with 11 touchdown passes and zero interceptions.

Play to -7.

All four of Oregon’s games have gone Over the total this year by an average of 10.9 points per game. Three of those games have been winners in this column, and now I’m going back to the well again.

Oregon starting quarterback Dante Moore will not play in this game. However, Dylan Raiola is the country's best backup quarterback. 

Two weeks ago, he came off the bench after Moore's injury and led Oregon to a 41-27 win at USC. The Ducks desperately needed a high-pressure game, and Raiola had a 98.8 QBR!

While it has been a great start for UCLA and new head coach Bob Chesney, the Bruins have not played a team currently in the Top 60 of my power ratings.

The best team UCLA has faced so far has been Purdue, and the Boilermakers threw for 425 yards and scored 38 points on them. I expect Oregon’s offense to succeed.

On the other side, Oregon’s defense has been one of the most disappointing units in all of college football this season. The Ducks have allowed 31 points per game to their three FBS opponents. Now they face a UCLA offense that ranks sixth nationally, averaging 44.8 points per game.

I would play this to 59.

Stanford and Notre Dame have met 35 times since 1988. This is by far the largest point spread we have seen in the rivalry. Only twice in those 35 meetings has Notre Dame won by more than this margin.

My power rankings only have Stanford as a 36.5-point underdog. That does not factor in the situation. Notre Dame has a huge game against BYU on deck, and I do not expect its starters to play extended minutes in the second half. 

Speaking of starters, the Fighting Irish could be without four of them on defense. That includes All-American cornerback Leonard Moore, who is in concussion protocol. One of the best linebackers in the country, Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, is also listed as questionable.

Stanford’s passing attack, led by quarterback Davis Warren, has been functional. Warren is No. 38 in the country, averaging 241.4 passing yards per game, and has only thrown one interception. 

Stanford can get a score or two against a Notre Dame pass defense that has allowed more than 200 yards to Wisconsin and North Carolina.

I would play this to +38.