Tonight's Week 6 college football slate features five games, highlighted by a major ACC showdown and two matchups involving ranked teams.
From Florida State and Louisville’s potential shootout to Iowa and Washington’s defensive stalemate, my Week 6 Friday night football picks and college football picks expect a handful of close games before a lopsided Big 12 showdown after dark.
Week 6 Friday night college football picks
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| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Florida Statevs  Louisville |
⬆️ o58.5 | 52% |
 Iowavs  Washington |
ML |
58% |
 Washington Statevs  Utah State |
⬇️ u44.5 | 53% |
 Wyoming vs  San Jose State |
⬇️ u44.5 | 44% |
 Iowa Statevs  BYU |
-10.5 |
48% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Friday night picks this week
Florida State vs Louisville: Over 58.5
With both defenses struggling this season and Florida State's offense finding its identity through the ground game, I like the Over at 60.5 or better in this Friday night ACC showdown. That’s especially true with Lincoln Kienholz (77.2 QBR, 15 touchdowns) under center for Louisville.
Louisville is shaping up to be one of the better Over teams in the country with its efficient offense averaging 33.5 points per game and ranking top 25 nationally in offensive success rate (49.7%). However, the Cardinals’ defense is the reason they’ve already racked up three losses, allowing 33.2 points per game.
The Seminoles ground game can capitalize on Louisville’s defensive issues, with Ashton Daniels and Ousmane Kromah having Florida State ranked 12th nationally in EPA per rush and 17th in rush success rate (49.7%). Daniels and Kormah have rushed for a combined 755 yards and 11 touchdowns in five games.
Iowa vs Washington: Washington moneyline
Although I would take Washington to cover up to -2.5, I feel more comfortable playing it safe and taking the Huskies to win outright at home against an Iowa team that’s been on an emotional roller coaster over the last few weeks and now faces a West Coast trip on a short week.
Two weeks ago, the Hawkeyes pulled off a road win against Michigan with a game-winning touchdown on the final play (though that win hasn’t aged well, with the Wolverines losing the Little Brown Jug to Minnesota last week for just the fifth time since 1968). Then, last week, Iowa’s defense was lit up by Ohio State.
The Hawkeyes have quietly regressed defensively this season, ranking 91st in EPA per pass. If Demond Williams Jr. can take advantage and lead Washington to just a few scoring drives, that will be enough.
Washington's defense is one of the best in the country, ranking 11th in net EPA per play, and Iowa’s run game is non-existent (111th in EPA per rush). To make matters worse for the Hawkeyes, QB Hank Brown is banged up.
Washington State vs Utah State: Under 44.5
One of the hottest ATS teams at the Group of Six level has been Utah State due to the Aggies’ style of play under Bronco Mendenhall. They have a run-first offense that shortens games and an underrated defense that held Washington to just 16 points in Seattle.
And with Washington State’s offensive struggles, I like the Under at 42.5 or better.
Utah State’s defense is 45th in net EPA per play and 32nd in rush success rate (39.1%), making this a tough matchup for a Cougars offense that runs the ball (31 attempts per game) more than it passes it (28.4).
Washington State has one of the worst offenses in the country, ranking 137th in net EPA per play. However, Utah State isn't much better, sitting 135th in offensive success rate (33.2%).
Two of the worst offenses in the country will make for an ugly, low-scoring game.
Wyoming vs San Jose State: Under 44.5
Wyoming has long been a strong Under team because of its inability to score points, especially since Jay Sawvel took over the Cowboys. Last week, Wyoming lost the Battle of the Basins to North Dakota State 28-0, hitting the Under for the 17th time in its last 20 games, and I like them to hit the Under again tonight at 42.5 or better.
The Cowboys have scored more than 13 points in just one of their four games against Power Four opponents this year and are 118th in the country in net EPA per play on offense. They might struggle to touch double digits against a respectable San Jose State defense that's fifth nationally in havoc rate (14.2%).
San Jose State's offense has been nearly as bad, ranking 97th in offensive success rate (46%). The Spartans are 4-1 to the Under this season and averaging just 22.6 points per game.
Iowa State vs BYU: BYU -10.5
While BYU is down lead running back LJ Martin, the Cougars have proven to be one of the toughest teams in the country under Kalani Sitake, and I would still take them to cover at -12.5 or better.
BYU is one of 10 programs that are still undefeated ATS this season (4-0), with the Cougars managing to cover against TCU last week after Martin exited thanks to Bear Bachmeier’s physical running.
Its defense played a major role in the cover, too, limiting the Horned Frogs to 10 points, and Cade Uluave and Co. should be able to carry the load again this week against an Iowa State team that’s 68th in net adjusted EPA per play.
The Cyclones’ offense has been pedestrian against quality opponents, averaging 15 points per game against teams ranked top 20 by SP+, and BYU’s defense is currently 13th.
Iowa State QB Jaylen Raynor has also struggled with the jump from the Group of Six level to the Power Four, ranking 57th in QBR (60.3).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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