No. 8 BYU hosts Iowa State as a 10.5-point favorite Friday at 8:15 p.m. MT at LaVell Edwards Stadium, but the Cyclones own a 5-1 series edge.
My Iowa State vs. BYU prediction and college football picks target the value created by BYU’s key injuries.
Who will win Iowa State vs BYU: Iowa State +10.5
Give me the Iowa State Cyclones +10.5 down to +9.5 because the BYU Cougars have several key players out with injuries, including All-Big XII LB Isaiah Glasker and 2025 Big XII Offensive Player of the Year L.J. Martin.
Martin exited after two carries against TCU, and BYU immediately produced its worst offensive performance of the season, averaging 3.5 yards per play and scoring 17 points after entering the game averaging 44.0 points per game.
Iowa State has scored a touchdown on every red-zone trip against FBS opponents, while BYU has allowed a score on every opponent trip. This also correlates with my Under. In a lower-scoring game, laying double digits becomes much tougher.
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TOP PICK
Iowa State vs BYU Over/Under pick: Under 45.5
I'm willing to trade the Under 45.5 down to 44.5 because BYU is missing its best offensive player and both teams want to run. The Cyclones rank 26th nationally in rushing attempt rate, while BYU ranks 17th. Fewer passes should mean fewer possessions and more clock bleeding.
There's also recency bias to fade. Iowa State just beat West Virginia 45-42, while BYU won last year's meeting 41-27. But the Cyclones now have a different coaching staff and quarterback, and this BYU offense isn't nearly as healthy.
Iowa State's 16-13 loss to a run-heavy Iowa team earlier this season is much closer to the game script I'm expecting Friday.
COVERS INTEL: This should be a slow-paced game: Iowa State is 119th in seconds per play on offense, and BYU is 134th.
Iowa State vs BYU combo
I'm expecting enough early offense to clear the first-quarter total before this game settles into the slower script I like overall. BYU's injuries should limit its scoring ceiling, while both teams lean heavily on the run and play at a deliberate pace.
That helps Iowa State stay within the number because fewer possessions make it harder for BYU to create separation. If the Cyclones keep this competitive, the full-game Under and double-digit spread should work together nicely.
Iowa State vs BYU combo
- Iowa State +10.5
- Under 45.5
- Over 7.5 first quarter
- Top picks: 10-15, -6.04 units
- Combos: 2-23, -17.25 units
Iowa State vs BYU odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Iowa State +10.5 | BYU -10.5
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (56%) | Under 45.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Iowa State 23% | BYU 80%
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Iowa State vs BYU weather
The weather forecast is predicting temperatures in the low 70s in Provo Friday, with a 7 mph wind and an 8% chance of rain.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Iowa State vs BYU trend to know
The Cyclones have gone Under the total in seven of their last 11 games dating back to last season. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa State vs. BYU.
How to watch Iowa State vs BYU
| Location | LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 9, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Iowa State vs BYU latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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