Tennessee visits Arkansas as a 13.5-point favorite Saturday, and our Arkansas vs. Tennessee predictions back the visitors to cover behind a decisive rushing advantage.
The quarterback situation adds uncertainty, but DeSean Bishop gets the matchup Tennessee needs.
Here are my selections and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 10.
TOP PICK
Who will win Tennessee vs Arkansas: Tennessee -13.5
Play the Tennessee Volunteers -13.5 down to 56%.
Tennessee’s biggest offensive weakness shouldn’t dictate this game. The metrics rank its rushing attack fourth nationally in EPA per rush, while the Arkansas Razorbacks rank 128th in defending the run. That’s a direct route around the passing problems.
DeSean Bishop gives Tennessee a back capable of turning that mismatch into sustained offense. The Hogs can crowd the line, but their inability to consistently win against the run makes that adjustment easier to draw up than execute.
George MacIntyre is reportedly taking over at quarterback, adding uncertainty to a road favorite laying nearly two touchdowns. Still, Tennessee doesn’t need him carrying the offense. Productive early carries should create manageable passing situations, and Arkansas lacks the offensive consistency to force Tennessee away from that approach.
COVERS INTEL: Arkansas allows opponents to convert 59.6% of third- and fourth-down plays, ranking 135th nationally. Even when Tennessee falls behind schedule, this defense struggles to finish possessions.
Tennessee vs Arkansas Over/Under pick: Under 51.5
Play the Under 51.5 down to 55%.
Arkansas is poorly equipped to supply its share of a shootout. Its offense ranks 131st in early-down EPA per play, repeatedly leaving longer conversion attempts against a Tennessee defense that ranks 25th in that same early-down metric.
That puts pressure on Arkansas to rescue possessions through the air rather than build drives on favorable terms. Tennessee’s offense brings its own limitation: a 33% passing success rate, ranking 131st. A quarterback change could improve that, but pricing in an immediate transformation would be aggressive.
Tennessee’s rushing advantage is the threat to the Under, but it will also burn a ton of clock in the process. I like a lower-scoring game, and it's my top pick.
Tennessee vs Arkansas combo
Arkansas starts its average possession at its own 27-yard line, ranking 108th nationally. That leaves considerable ground to cover against a defense allowing opponents to gain only 34% of available yards, ranking 16th.
Those longer fields favor empty possessions or drives that consume time without producing touchdowns. Tennessee’s rushing matchup should also make protecting a lead more sustainable, reducing the need for aggressive passing late. Pairing its moneyline with the full-game Under and Arkansas’ touchdown Under captures that the best.
Tennessee vs Arkansas combo
- Tennessee Moneyline
- Under 51.5
- Arkansas Under 2.5 touchdowns
- Top picks: 5-3, +1.73 units
- Combos: 1-7, -2.10 units
Tennessee vs Arkansas odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Tennessee -13.5 | Arkansas +13.5
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (50%) | Under 51.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Tennessee 83% | Arkansas 18%
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Tennessee vs Arkansas weather
Fayetteville’s Saturday afternoon forecast calls for mostly sunny conditions and temperatures in the upper 80s.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Tennessee vs Arkansas trend to know
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs. Arkansas.
How to watch Tennessee vs Arkansas
| Location | Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Ark. |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Tennessee vs Arkansas latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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