The Magnolia Bowl is easily the biggest game on a Week 3 schedule featuring three AP Top 25 matchups, with Lane Kiffin's return to Oxford among the most anticipated games of the college football season.
But the LSU vs. Ole Miss rivalry is far from the only must-watch game in my Week 3 college football Top 25 predictions and college football picks.
From Friday night's matchup between No. 22 Houston and No. 13 Texas Tech to No. 24 Oklahoma looking to bounce back against a feisty New Mexico team, there's no shortage of Top 25 intrigue this week.
College football Top 25 predictions & watchability ratings: Week 3
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
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| Matchup | Watch Rating |
Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
 LSUvs.  Ole Miss |
5/5 | +1.5 🟡 |
49% |
 Houstonvs.  Texas Tech |
5/5 | -7.5 🟡 |
48% |
 SMUvs.  Louisville |
5/5 | +1.5 ⚪ |
51% |
 Kentuckyvs.  Texas A&M |
4/5 | -15.5 🟡 |
54% |
 West Virginiavs.  Virginia |
4/5 | -10.5 🟢 |
49% |
 New Mexicovs.  Oklahoma |
3/5 | +23.5 🟡 |
53% |
 Florida Statevs.  Alabama |
3/5 | -20.5 ⚪ |
47% |
 Miamivs.  Wake Forest |
3/5 | -20.5 🟡 |
52% |
 Michigan Statevs.  Notre Dame |
3/5 | +29.5 ⚪ |
51% |
 USCvs.  Rutgers |
2/5 | +24.5 ⚪ |
52% |
 Georgiavs.  Arkansas |
2/5 | -24.5 🟢 |
53% |
 UTSAvs.  Texas |
2/5 | -30.5 ⚪ |
49% |
 BYUvs.  Colorado State |
2/5 | -17.5 🟡 |
49% |
 Troyvs.  Missouri |
1/5 | +27.5 🟡 |
54% |
 Kennesaw Statevs.  Tennessee |
1/5 | -35.5 ⚪ |
51% |
 Utah Statevs.  Utah |
1/5 | -27.5 🟡 |
53% |
 Buffalovs.  Penn State |
1/5 | +41.5 ⚪ |
54% |
 UTEPvs.  Michigan |
1/5 | +35.5 ⚪ |
53% |
 Western Kentuckyvs.  Indiana |
1/5 | -44.5 🟡 |
51% |
 Kent Statevs.  Ohio State |
1/5 | -52.5 🟡 |
51% |
 Northern Iowavs.  Iowa |
1/5 | -38.5 🟡 |
49% |
 Portland Statevs.  Oregon |
1/5 | -57.5 🟡 |
48% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Tier 1 watchability for Week 3 (must-watch)
LSU (7) vs Ole Miss (8)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: LSU +1.5 🟡
- ML pick: LSU (50%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Under 57.5 ⚪
There's going to be more hate here than in almost any rivalry game in the country this season, especially with the antics being turned up a notch this week. Beyond the Lane Kiffin of it all, Ole Miss served LSU's Princewill Umanmielen on Tuesday (related to him leaving the Rebels to follow Kiffin to the Tigers), and that led Louisiana's governor, Jeff Landry, to take a shot at Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter.
But when it comes to the actual football, Umanmielen might be the biggest key to an LSU win. While Kiffin is known for offense (and Ole Miss is too, with Heisman Trophy odds contender Trinidad Chambliss), the defensive difference between these programs stands out.
LSU is third nationally in havoc rate (30.2%) with its two star edge rushers, Umanmielen (10) and Jordan Ross (8), ranking Top 25 in the country in pressures. The Tigers have the No. 2-ranked defense by SP+, while the Rebels are third-to-last in the SEC in havoc rate (15.5%) and are 39th by SP+.
And though Sam Leavitt is "doubtful" (I'm not sure we should believe Kiffin's injury report), LSU's defense will make enough plays to cover in the end. I would even take LSU at -3.5 or better.
Houston (22) vs Texas Tech (13)
- Game info: Friday, Sept. 18 | 8 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Texas Tech -7.5 🟡
- ML pick: Texas Tech (73%) 🟡
- Over/Under pick: Over 52.5 ⚪
Neither Houston nor Texas Tech has faced a strong opponent yet, but they do have a common opponent just two games into the season. Oregon State covered as a 20+-point underdog against both the Cougars and Red Raiders, but that says more about the Beavers' improvements under JaMarcus Shephard than anything.
So I'm taking the team with stronger trench play and home-field advantage to cover under the Friday night lights. The Red Raiders' defense is fourth nationally in early-down EPA per play and 11th overall by SP+, thanks to one of the best front sevens in the country.
Playing under pressure has always been an issue for Houston QB Conner Weigman, who was Top 20 in the Power Four in turnover-worthy play rate last season (3.9%) and posted just a 72.2% adjusted completion rate. Getting to him will be key to a decisive win.
And Tech's offensive line is one of the best (only five pressures allowed), and if it keeps Will Hammond clean, he can take advantage of a Houston defense that's 81st in EPA per pass. I like Tech to win 33-24 (covering up to -8.5).
SMU (16) vs Louisville (23)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- ATS pick: SMU +1.5 ⚪
- ML pick: SMU (48%) ⚪
- Over/Under pick: Under 58.5 🟡
This should be one of Saturday's closest games, hence the 1.5-point spread, and it will have massive ramifications in the ACC Championship race. Both teams played high-profile Week 1 games, giving us a decent amount of reliable data going into this matchup.
Louisville's defense has been underwhelming, ranking just 12th in the ACC in havoc rate (14.8%). Chambliss picked it apart in Week 1, and then Villanova started Week 2 with two scores in its first three drives before collapsing.
The Cardinals' defense ranks outside the Top 85 in both EPA per pass and rush, and could struggle against SMU's Kevin Jennings. Jennings is protected by arguably the best offensive line in the ACC (four of the five starters have allowed zero pressures), and Rhett Lashlee's offense is ranked 14th nationally in EPA per pass.
Pulling an outright upset on the road will be difficult, but SMU's defense (ranked 23rd by SP+) is also the best Louisville QB Lincoln Kienholz has faced.
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Tier 2 watchability for Week 3 (worth watching)
Kentucky vs Texas A&M (9)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Texas A&M -15.5 🟡
- ML pick: Texas A&M (88%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 🟡
The scores of both Kentucky's Week 2 loss to Alabama (28-point loss) and Texas A&M's Week 2 win over Arizona State (28-point win) are slightly misleading. However, one thing is clear on both ends: the Wildcats offense needs a lot of work, and the Aggies defense is opportunistic.
Kentucky has no run game (125th in EPA per rush) and a QB who's not yet ready to put the Wildcats on his back against high-end SEC competition. Kenny Minchey totaled three turnover-worthy plays last week against Alabama, and now he's making his first road start at one of the country's most hostile environments, Kyle Field.
Against a Texas A&M defense ranked 12th in havoc rate (24.8%), 18th in third/fourth down success, and 22nd in EPA per pass, Kentucky will have a tough time moving the ball. And while UK's defense has been impressive, Marcel Reed is a veteran QB with plenty of talented pass catchers (the Aggies offense is ranked fifth by SP+).
Texas A&M should pull away big in the second half, and I'd take Mike Elko's team to cover as many as 17.5 points.
West Virginia vs Virginia (25)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ACC Network
- ATS pick: Virginia -10.5 🟢
- ML pick: Virginia (77%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 53.5 🟡
While Rich Rodriguez is doing a far better job having a QB-running back duo cosplay as Pat White and Steve Slaton in Year 2 of his second stint at West Virginia, the Mountaineers are clearly flawed.
Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook make for an electric duo in Rich Rod's spread-option attack, but this isn't Coastal Carolina (who nearly pulled off an insane comeback against WVU in Week 1) or UT-Martin. This is the Duke's Mayo Classic against a Virginia team with plenty of twang.
The Cavaliers have a clear identity. They want to mash in the run game behind one of the country's most experienced offensive lines and lean on a strong front seven. It's worked thus far, with Virginia ranking 18th in offensive success rate (54.1%) and 13th in havoc rate (24.8%).
So while Hawkins and Cook make for a fun run game, West Virginia isn't built to play from behind, and with a defense that's 102nd in early-down EPA, they will be behind. The Cavaliers are in play up to -12.5.
Tier 3 watchability for Week 3 (interesting)
New Mexico vs Oklahoma (24)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
- ATS pick: New Mexico +23.5 🟡
- ML pick: Oklahoma (93%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 47.5 🟡
Of all the Group of Six programs that Oklahoma could have played with hopes of getting back on track after last week's ugly performance against Michigan, New Mexico is among the toughest.
In Jason Eck's first season leading the Lobos last year, they played three Power Four teams. In those games, New Mexico lost by 17 on the road against Michigan as a 34.5-point underdog, beat UCLA outright on the road as a 14.5-point underdog, and lost by three in overtime to Minnesota in the Rate Bowl.
No G6 head coach gets their team to play up to their opponent like Eck, who, despite losing his starting QB Jack Layne for the season, has New Mexico ranked Top 20 in EPA per rush. That could be a problem for an OU defense that's been dinged by the run this season (51st in EPA per rush).
And that's without mentioning John Mateer's struggles (56.7% adjusted completion rate last week) or a Lobos defense that nationally ranks fifth in EPA per pass. This spread is at least three points too high.
Florida State vs Alabama (10)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Alabama -20.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Alabama (90%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 49.5 🟡
Did Florida State upset Alabama last season? Yes. But after taking down the Crimson Tide in Tallahassee and winning its next two games against non-P4 teams, Mike Norvell's squad has been a mess. Since Sept. 26 of last season, the Seminoles are 2-9 ATS and 3-8 straight-up.
This is FSU's first road game of the season, and it's clear that Norvell, once again, has a massive QB issue. Ashton Daniels has more turnover-worthy plays (42) than TD passes (26) in his career and now faces a Crimson Tide defense that's ranked third by SP+ and sits Top 10 in both EPA per rush and available yards percentage.
Even if Keelon Russell and the Tide's offense get off to a slow start, the defense can pick up the slack against Florida State. With that said, I only like this spread at -20.5 or better.
Miami (5) vs Wake Forest
- Game info: Friday, Sept. 18 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
- ATS pick: Miami -20.5 🟡
- ML pick: Miami (92%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 56.5 🟡
Behind one of the country's most explosive offenses, Miami has shot up the college football national championship odds. With the Heisman odds favorite behind center (Darian Mensah) and one of the best wide receivers in recent college football history (Malachi Toney), the Canes are 2-0 ATS.
They were bigger favorites in those two games than they are against Wake Forest, but this is a Demon Deacons team that just got taken to overtime by Purdue. A Boilermakers offense ranked 75th by SP+ scored 36 against this Wake defense. Miami might score 50.
The Demon Deacons defense is ranked outside the Top 80 in pretty much everything. Miami's offense is Top 15 in EPA per pass, available yard percentage, and third/fourth down success.
The Canes are also No. 1 in offensive success rate (62.5%) and should have no trouble winning this game by at least 24.
Michigan State vs Notre Dame (3)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 7:30 p.m. ET | NBC
- ATS pick: Michigan State +29.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Notre Dame (96%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 51.5 🟡
The Pat Fitzgerald era at Michigan State has gotten off to a fine enough start with two wins against MAC programs. And while I don't believe the Spartans have any shot at keeping this game close against Notre Dame, winning by 30+ points is a tall task, even for the Fighting Irish.
It's going to be especially difficult with weather expected to be a large factor in South Bend. The forecast calls for a 93% chance of precipitation and potential thunderstorms throughout the day. That will help MSU if both teams go to ground and shorten this game.
The Spartans defense has been respectable enough, ranking Top-35 in EPA per rush, available yards percentage, and third/fourth-down success.
Don't get me wrong, Notre Dame will cook Michigan State, but with the weather I don't think the Spartans will lose by more than four touchdowns. Projections have it around Notre Dame 43, Michigan State 16.
Tier 4 watchability for Week 3 (blowout brewing)
USC (12) vs Rutgers
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS
- ATS pick: Rutgers +24.5 ⚪
- ML pick: USC (93%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 59.5 🟢
Full disclosure, I have taken Rutgers to cover the spread twice this season, and I've been haunted by the ghost of Greg Schiano both times. Still, the Scarlet Knights have one of the country's best wide receivers, KJ Duff, and one of the best running backs, Antwan Raymond.
Those two have over 500 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns this season and can do enough against USC to keep this within three scores. The Trojans have to travel over 2,700 miles and stop two NFL-caliber playmakers with a defense ranked outside the Top 75 in EPA per pass and rush.
Georgia (2) vs Arkansas
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | Noon ET | ABC
- ATS pick: Georgia -24.5 🟢
- ML pick: Georgia (95%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 53.5 🟢
Kirby Smart isn't messing around. He's killed a trend, and he's not slowing down. Before the season, Georgia was 0-15-1 ATS when favored by 38.5+ points under Smart. Two games into this season, the Bulldogs are 2-0 ATS (favored by 40.5+ in both games) and have outscored their opponent 133-23.
Arkansas is coming off a 33-point loss to Utah, and has lifelong Razorbacks fans like Ms. Lisa calling for athletic director Hunter Yurachek's job just two games into Ryan Silverfield's tenure. Gunner Stockton & Co. will dismantle an Arkansas defense ranked 100th by SP+.
UTSA vs Texas (1)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 8 p.m. ET | SEC Network+
- ATS pick: Texas -30.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Texas (98%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 58.5 🟡
Could Texas be dealing with a hangover following its win and subsequent Arch Manning/Steve Sarkisian controversy? Maybe. But UTSA might have a hangover of its own after upsetting Texas State on the road with a game-winning touchdown in the final seconds.
The Longhorns, who are one of seven teams ranked Top 10 on offense and defense by SP+, beat that same Texas State team by 52 in Week 1. This won't be quite as big of a blowout, but Manning can help Texas cover a spread as high as 33 points.
BYU (11) vs Colorado State
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 7:30 p.m. ET | CBS
- ATS pick: BYU -17.5 🟡
- ML pick: BYU (88%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 52.5 🟡
This is an interesting matchup because it's the rare Power Four team going on the road to play a Group of Six program. And while fans in Fort Collins will have a little extra juice with BYU coming to town, this Colorado State team doesn't have the run defense to keep this close.
The Rams sit 122nd in EPA per rush on defense, and the Cougars live for running the ball with LJ Martin and Bear Bachmeier. Those two have BYU ranked fourth in offensive success rate (59.4%), and they should lead a 20+-point win.
Tier 5 watchability for Week 3 (it's still football)
Troy vs Missouri (20)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 7 p.m. ET | SEC Network+
- ATS pick: Troy +27.5 🟡
- ML pick: Missouri (96%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 🟡
Missouri just came off a rivalry win on the road by beating Kansas in the Border War, and now plays a Troy team that reached the Sun Belt Championship last season. The Trojans have an efficient offense that's Top 45 in EPA per pass and rush, and can score enough to keep this within 27, but I would only take Troy at +27.5 or better.
Kennesaw State vs Tennessee (15)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 7:45 p.m. ET | SEC Network
- ATS pick: Tennessee -35.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Tennessee (98%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 59.5 🟡
After exceeding expectations last year and winning Conference USA, Kennesaw State looks like it's regressing in a major way in Year 2 under Jerry Mack. The Owls lost at home last week as more than a touchdown favorite against a Georgia State team that went 2-10 ATS last year.
Meanwhile, Tennessee has a budding star in freshman QB Faizon Brandon (who has the offense ranked No. 2 by SP+) and a defense that's 14th in havoc rate (24.2%). I like the Vols to cover up to -36.5.
Utah State vs Utah (17)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 3:30 p.m. ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Utah -27.5 🟡
- ML pick: Utah (96%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 56.5 ⚪
Morgan Scalley has been blowing out lesser programs in his first season as Utah's full-time head coach. The Utes beat Idaho by 52 as a 38.5-point favorite and destroyed Arkansas after dark, beating it by 33 as a 13.5-point favorite.
The run game has been dynamic with Devon Dampier at the helm (fifth in EPA per rush) and should give Utah State's underrated defense a big challenge. But it's the Utes defense that will seal the cover, with Utah State ranked 128th in available yards percentage.
Buffalo vs Penn State (14)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | Noon ET | Big Ten Network
- ATS pick: Buffalo +41.5 ⚪
- ML pick: Penn State (99%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 49.5 🟡
Penn State's offense has big questions to answer after it struggled to get going last week against Temple (the Owls covered as a 24.5-point underdog and only gave up 27 to the Nittany Lions). If the Nittany Lions are slow to score against Buffalo, they may not have enough drives to cover such a large spread.
The Bulls will likely get blown out, but look to shorten the game and run the ball frequently against a Penn State defense that's 115th in EPA per rush. Losing in the ballpark of 45-6 would still be a cover for Buffalo.
UTEP vs Michigan (19)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 3:30 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
- ATS pick: UTEP +35.5 🟡
- ML pick: Michigan (99%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 48.5 🟢
There are two reasons I like UTEP to cover as a five-touchdown underdog against a Michigan team that semi-redeemed itself last week against Oklahoma, despite the FBS Oversight Committee saying the Wolverines shouldn't have had a phantom second put back on the clock and should have a loss on their record for the Western Michigan Hail Mary game.
One, this game is supposed to be hit hard with rain, which should help keep scoring relatively low (96% chance of precipitation). Two, Bryce Underwood didn't look great against the Sooners.
The former No. 1 recruit had just a 56.3% adjusted completion percentage last week, and a week before against Western Michigan he had five turnover-worthy plays. I'm not sure the Wolverines will be able to score 35 points with his struggles and the weather.
Western Kentucky vs Indiana (4)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 4 p.m. ET | Peacock
- ATS pick: Indiana -44.5 🟡
- ML pick: Indiana (51%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 60.5 🟡
In two games against non-Power Four programs, the reigning national champions have won by an average margin of 53.5 to 8. Indiana is third nationally in EPA per pass and eighth in available yards percentage behind the play of Josh Hoover and Charlie Becker.
Curt Cignetti rarely takes his foot off the gas against lesser opponents, and this Western Kentucky team is coming off a 70-20 loss to Georgia, so I'd expect a similar outcome against the Hoosiers.
Kent State vs Ohio State (6)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | Noon ET | FOX
- ATS pick: Ohio State -52.5 🟡
- ML pick: Ohio State (99%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 59.5 🟡
After losing to Texas the way it did, Ohio State will come out in Week 3 with something to prove. And unfortunately for Mark Carney — Kent State's head coach, not the Canadian prime minister — the Golden Flashes are who the Buckeyes will be taking their frustration out on.
Even with the loss to the Longhorns, Ryan Day's team is ranked No. 2 by SP+ ... Kent State is ranked 133rd. And the Buckeyes already beat a MAC team by 53 points in Week 1.
Northern Iowa vs Iowa (18)
- Game info: Saturday, Sept. 19 | 4 p.m. ET | FS1
- ATS pick: Iowa -38.5 🟡
- ML pick: Iowa (99%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Under 49.5 🟡
The talent gap between FCS programs and the Power Four has never been wider. One of my biggest takeaways of the first two weeks of the season is that if an FCS program isn't a proven power like Montana State or South Dakota State, you're almost always better off taking the P4 team to cover.
In this case, I have plenty of confidence in Iowa doing that with its dominant offensive line and a defense that's Top 15 in EPA per pass and available yards percentage.
Iowa should win by at least 40.
Portland State vs Oregon (21)
- Game info: Friday, Sept. 18 | 10:30 p.m. ET | Big Ten Network
- ATS pick: Oregon -57.5 🟡
- ML pick: Oregon (99%) 🟢
- Over/Under pick: Over 67.5 ⚪
Similarly to Ohio State, I think Oregon will come out guns blazing after its upset loss to Oklahoma State last week. Dan Lanning doesn't strike me as someone who takes losing well, and historically he's had no problem lighting up an FCS team.
Last year, Oregon beat Montana State by 46. That Bobcats squad went on to win the FCS championship. This Portland State team is nowhere near that good. Portland State is ranked 293rd by SP+ and is 0-3 after going 1-11 last year. In 2023, the Ducks beat the Vikings 81-7.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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