A massive game awaits Michigan State head coach Pat Fitzgerald and the Spartans as they draw one of the best teams in the country, and I'm diving in with my Michigan State vs. Notre Dame prediction.
My Week 3 college football picks outline why the Spartans should keep it within the 29.5-point spread. Don't miss kickoff from Notre Dame Stadium on Sept. 19 at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
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Who will win Michigan State vs Notre Dame: Michigan State +29.5
I have a slight lean here with the 29.5-point underdog Michigan State Spartans, only because Notre Dame is always due for a fluke game in which it has no business slipping up.
This is a game Michigan State has been preparing for all offseason, and Michigan State's head coach Pat Fitzgerald would love to get this one, as he grew up on the South Side of Chicago around Fighting Irish fans.
With Notre Dame's first two tests coming against Rice and Wisconsin, any top-five ranked team should have won those games by a combined 80 points. Michigan State hasn't played anyone either, but with Notre Dame's track record of overlooking weaker opponents, the Spartans should be able to keep it within 30.
COVERS INTEL: Michigan State has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 games (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI). TOP PICK
Michigan State vs Notre Dame Over/Under pick: Under 51.5
The Under correlates with backing the Spartans, plus Notre Dame doesn't allow anyone to score, so points should come at a premium in this matchup.
Notre Dame has only allowed 13 total points to kick off the 2026 season, with all that coming against Wisconsin in Week 1. This top-ranked Notre Dame defense should be able to hold down a Michigan State offense that's only faced Toledo and Eastern Michigan.
I expect the Fighting Irish to do the heavy lifting offensively, but the Spartans' defense should be able to keep this from turning into a complete blowout. I envision a 41-10 game.
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Michigan State vs Notre Dame prop: First-half Under 28.5
Both defenses are allowing seven or fewer points in the first half, though that of course comes with quality of competition concerns.
The biggest issue with backing the first-half Under will be whether the Spartans can hold the Irish below their season average of 27.5 first-half points. This is Michigan State's only ranked opponent until November, so the Spartans should come with an all-out effort.
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Michigan State vs Notre Dame combo
If you think this game stays Under while Michigan State keeps it tight from start to finish, combo these plays and get 3.62x.
Michigan State vs Notre Dame combo
- Michigan State +29.5
- Under 51.5
- First-half Under 28.5
- 2025 CFB Season: 14-18, -0.9 units
Michigan State vs Notre Dame odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Michigan State +29.5 | Notre Dame -29.5
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (53.70%) | Under 51.5 (50.74%)
- Moneyline: Michigan State 4% | Notre Dame 96%
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Michigan State vs Notre Dame weather
At kickoff, South Bend will be roughly 70 degrees, with a 45% chance of rain and 4-mph winds.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Michigan State vs Notre Dame trend to know
How to watch Michigan State vs Notre Dame
| Location | Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, Ind. |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Michigan State vs Notre Dame latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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