Alabama is out for blood after falling to Florida State in last year's season opener. The Seminoles have looked a bit shaky out of the gate, giving the Tide a great chance to exploit their early flaws.
Without further ado, here is my Florida State vs. Alabama prediction: The Crimson Tide will steamroll the Seminoles by 21+.
Read on for my Week 3 college football picks, and don't miss kickoff from Bryant-Denny Stadium at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
TOP PICK
Who will win Florida State vs Alabama: Alabama -20.5
Pretty sure they call it an "Alabama beatdown" when a team wins by 20 or more points. Sure, the cool kids say "belt to ass," but we will leave that for the cool kids.
However, this matchup Bama or nothing for me.
Despite Florida State getting a week off, it comes off a horrible loss to the SMU Mustangs, in which it was outgained by 261 yards against a team that turned the ball over four times.
SMU looked like the far better team, while opening the season looking like a sloppy joe. This is easily a game the Crimson Tide have had circled since losing to the Seminoles in last year's season opener, 31-17.
With so many coaches already on the hot seat, Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer's seat burner never cools. Filling Nick Saban's shoes will never be complete without a title, so he needs this game.
The Tide have far more motivation going into this game than the Seminoles. Take this up to 23.5.
COVERS INTEL: Alabama QB Keelon Russell has thrown for 444 yards while completing 64.2% of his passes, with two total touchdowns through two games this season.
Florida State vs Alabama Over/Under pick: Over 48.5
They are going to have to pry the Crimson Tide off the Seminoles if this Florida State defense is going to perform as it did against New Mexico State and SMU.
Even though the Seminoles came out on top 34-17 against New Mexico State, they still gave up 319 total yards, then nearly allowed 600 total yards to the Mustangs. The Crimson Tide should be able to do whatever they want on Saturday.
I fully expect Alabama to carry the load here, as it does have a strong defensive unit, but if the Tide put up 40 points, we just need the Seminoles to do some damage in garbage time. Expecting a 40-10 final score.
Take this up to 49.5.
Florida State vs Alabama combo
Alabama should have no trouble moving the ball against a Florida State defense that has struggled to slow down opposing offenses, while the Tide are coming off a 45-point performance against Kentucky.
This is also a game Alabama has had circled since losing to the Seminoles in last year's season opener. Expect the Crimson Tide to come out looking to smack Florida State in the mouth and establish control early, while the Seminoles should have enough opportunities to help push this game )ver 48.5.
Florida State vs Alabama combo
- Alabama -20.5
- Over 48.5
- Alabama 1H -10.5
- 2026 CFB Season: 14-18, -0.9 units
Florida State vs Alabama odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Florida State +20.5 | Alabama -20.5
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (53.7%) | Under 48.5 (51.92%)
- Moneyline: Florida State 9.58% | Alabama 92.59%
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Florida State vs Alabama weather
Weather at kickoff should be in the mid-90s in Tuscaloosa, with a 21% chance of rain.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Florida State vs Alabama trend to know
Florida State has covered only the first-half spread in 3 of its last 12 games (-7.85 Units / -55% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Florida State vs. Alabama.
How to watch Florida State vs Alabama
| Location | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala. |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Florida State vs Alabama latest injuries
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