Ohio State is suddenly fighting for its playoff life, Utah is making a serious push for a Big 12 title, and unbeaten UCLA is still getting little respect from the market.
Saturday's results sent the College Football Playoff odds into a frenzy, with several contenders seeing their chances swing dramatically just days before the selection committee unveils its first rankings on Tuesday, November 3.
I've identified four teams worth backing or fading in Kalshi's make-the-playoff market, including one unbeaten contender I believe is still being undervalued.
- Ohio State: 56% (down 22 points) — The biggest drop after the Buckeyes' loss at USC.
- Utah: 69% (up 13 points) — The biggest climb after the Utes beat Cincinnati.
- Ole Miss: 53% (up 12 points) — The Rebels made the second-largest jump and are now above 50%.
Latest College Football Playoff odds 2026
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Team |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Miami (FL) |
96% |
 Georgia |
91% |
 Indiana |
87% |
 Notre Dame |
76% |
 Utah |
69% |
 Alabama |
68% |
 UCLA |
61% |
 Ohio State |
56% |
 LSU |
55% |
 Texas |
55% |
 Ole Miss |
53% |
 Boise State |
49% |
 BYU |
39% |
 Kentucky |
38% |
 New Mexico |
33% |
 Texas Tech |
30% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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College Football Playoff picks
TexasUCLA CFP prediction: YES
Two weeks ago, I called UCLA at 49% the last chance to get plus money on the Bruins making the College Football Playoff. I also said an 11-1 finish was absolutely realistic and would be enough to get them in without a Big Ten title.
Fast forward to today, and UCLA is 8-0, ranked No. 5 nationally, and its Kalshi probability has climbed to 61%.
The remaining schedule is manageable, and that 11-1 scenario remains very much alive. The price has changed, but my position hasn't: UCLA is making the CFP.
UCLA won THREE games last season. Now they’re 6-0, the last undefeated team in the Big Ten, and have a remarkably soft remaining schedule. Yet Kalshi gives them just a 49% chance to make the CFP. 🤯 I think the market is getting this one wrong. 👀 @Covers https://t.co/0g62DvQkxy
— Chris Vasile (@mc_silly3) October 21, 2026
Ohio State CFP prediction: NO
Ohio State's playoff hopes took a massive hit in Saturday's 30-18 loss at USC, sending the Buckeyes tumbling nine spots to No. 11 in the AP poll.
Without injured quarterback Julian Sayin, Ohio State managed just one touchdown despite gaining 464 yards. The defense wasn't much better, surrendering 30 points for the first time since 2024.
Now 6-2, the Buckeyes still have Oregon and Michigan coming to Columbus. Another loss could leave them on the wrong side of the playoff bubble, and with Sayin sidelined, I'm fading Ohio State at 56%.
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Utah CFP prediction: YES
Utah is making a serious case for the CFP. The unbeaten Utes climbed to No. 3 in the AP poll after dismantling Cincinnati 49-25, piling up 534 yards and leading 42-6 at halftime.
Next comes the Holy War against No. 7 BYU, with the winner taking a major step toward the Big 12 title game.
But here's why I like Utah at 69%: Even with a loss Saturday, an 11-1 finish remains realistic with Arizona, TCU, and West Virginia left on the schedule. The Utes have more than one path to the playoff, and I'm backing them to get there.
Texas CFP prediction: YES
Texas has two losses, but good luck finding another bubble team with a better collection of wins. The Longhorns have already beaten Ohio State, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, and climbed to No. 10 in the AP poll after crushing Mississippi State 31-3.
The concern is the remaining schedule. Texas still has road trips to Missouri, LSU, and Texas A&M, leaving little room for another slip-up.
But with those quality wins already on its resume, I believe a 9-3 finish gets Texas into the playoff. At 55%, I'm backing YES.
College Football Playoff 2026 FAQ
When do the first CFP rankings come out?
The selection committee releases its opening College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday, November 3, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The final rankings and 12-team bracket will be announced on Sunday, December 6.
When do the 2026 College Football Playoffs start?
The first round begins Friday, December 18, with three more games on Saturday, December 19. The quarterfinals run December 30 and January 1, the semifinals are January 14–15, and the national championship is Monday, January 25, 2027, in Las Vegas.
How does the 12-team CFP format work?
The field includes the champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC, the highest-ranked eligible team from the other FBS conferences, and seven at-large selections. The top four seeds receive first-round byes, while seeds 5–12 play in the opening round. For more details, see NCAA.com's guide to how the College Football Playoff works.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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