Louisville has waited 10 months for another shot at SMU after last season's 38-6 embarrassment in Dallas, and this rematch comes with both offenses humming.
My SMU vs. Louisville prediction backs the Cardinals at home, while my college football picks also attack a high total and Louisville's team-scoring market.
No. 23 Louisville hosts No. 16 SMU on Saturday, Sept. 19, at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. The Cardinals are 1.5-point favorites for the 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN2.
TOP PICK
Who will win SMU vs Louisville: Louisville moneyline
Give me the Louisville moneyline to 58% because I'm more impressed with its 1-1 start than SMU's 2-0 record.
Both are 2-0 against the spread (ATS). However, Louisville duked it out with a Top-10 team in the country in its opener, Ole Miss, covering as +6.5 underdogs in a 41-38 loss. SMU covered as 2.5-point favorites but played with its food in a win at Florida State, which ranks 44th in ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly's SP+ Ratings.
Louisville QB Lincoln Kienholz looks like the real deal, and I'm buying stock in his upside. Kienholz ranks eighth nationally in passer rating among Power 4 schools, and he leads the Cardinals in rushing yards (111) and rushing touchdowns (three).
COVERS INTEL: SMU QB Kevin Jennings and Lincoln Kienholz rank first and fourth nationally in yards per pass at 14.8 and 12.8, respectively.
SMU vs Louisville Over/Under pick: Over 59.5
I lean toward the Over as long as it stays below 60.5 because this quarterback matchup should produce fireworks. A few of my sharp college football buddies bought shares in Mustangs QB Kevin Jennings' Heisman market preseason, and Kienholz is playing at an All-Conference level.
Furthermore, both teams grade out in the 79th percentile nationally in offensive explosive play rate, per GameOnPaper.com. These head coaches, SMU's Rhett Lashlee and Louisville's Jeff Brohm, were college quarterbacks, aka offensive-minded. Plus, both offenses have better success rates than their defenses.
SMU vs Louisville combo
Since my first-quarter Under contradicts my full-game Over, this combo pays 7.7x. If I used the first-quarter Over instead, the payout is roughly 5-to-1.
More importantly, Louisville and Ole Miss scored just three first-quarter points last season before finishing with 79, and the Mustangs have gotten off to slow starts in most of their last 12 games. Once these offenses settle in, Jennings and Kienholz can take over.
SMU vs Louisville combo
- Louisville moneyline (55%)
- Over 59.5
- Under 13.5 first-quarter points
- Top picks: 4-8, -4.20 units
- Combos: 2-10, -4.25 units
SMU vs Louisville odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: SMU +1.5 | Louisville -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 (52%) | Under 59.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: SMU 50% | Louisville 55%
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SMU vs Louisville weather
According to the weather forecast, it'll be a clear 92 degrees in Louisville on Saturday, with low wind and a slim chance of rain.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
SMU vs Louisville trend to know
The Mustangs have won and covered both games against the Cardinals over the last two seasons. Find more college football betting trends for SMU vs. Louisville.
How to watch SMU vs Louisville
| Location | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Ky. |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
SMU vs Louisville latest injuries
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