Our USC vs. Rutgers prediction for Week 3's Big Ten matchup ponders "how far is too far" when the road team is favored by 23.5 points.
With USC looking ahead to its marquee game with Oregon next week, and its defense already having taken its foot off the gas in two prior contests, our college football picks eye the points.
Don't miss kickoff at 3:30 pm ET on CBS this Saturday, Sept. 19.
TOP PICK
Who will win USC vs Rutgers: Rutgers +23.5
I'd buy the dip with Rutgers and play the number until +21.5.
The market is trashing them after two bad losses to start the year, which is understandable, but at some point it's "too far" for a home team in a conference game.
USC's offense (42.3 ppg, sixth in success rate) will be able to score, so the question is what Rutgers will provide coming back. Considering USC's mediocre defense allowed both San Jose State (26 points, 6.0 yards per play) and Louisiana (30 points, 6.9 YPP) to find offensive success, the Scarlet Knights can follow a similar script.
Although both of those Group of Six opponents piled up points in garbage time, who's to say Rutgers can't do that as well if this game gets out of reach? Having the nation's second-leading receiver in KJ Duff (333 yards, five touchdowns) and star tailback Antwan Raymond (202 yards, one touchdown) certainly helps in that aspect.
COVERS INTEL: USC has notoriously struggled on the road under Lincoln Riley, going 2-8 ATS since 2024. The Trojans finished 0-5 ATS away from home last year.
USC vs Rutgers Over/Under pick: Over 59.5
When USC has the ball, Heisman Trophy odds candidate Jayden Maiava (10.8 yards per attempt) will have success throwing the ball around against a Rutgers defense that doesn't put pressure on the quarterback, ranking 124th in PFF's pass-rushing grade.
The Trojans have put up at least 39 points in all three of their contests and stand a good chance of doing so against a Rutgers defense that is 118th in EPA per play and has surrendered 6.4 yards per play to two teams that won a combined two games last year (UMass and Boston College).
When Rutgers has the ball, it really needs to avoid giving up possession. The Scarlet Knights have an FBS-high eight turnovers, but otherwise have the ability to hit chunk plays (26th in explosiveness) with reliable offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca calling the shots.
USC vs Rutgers combo
Call this one the "Back Door Cover Special."
USC will jump out to a two-touchdown lead in the first half given its overall superiority. The Trojans have outscored their opponents 106-10 in the first half.
They have taken their foot off the gas pedal in the second half, however, finishing 1-2 ATS despite those one-sided starts. KJ Duff and the Rutgers offense are live to put up second-half scores that cover this wide full-game margin for a home team in a conference game, and USC will begin looking forward to next week's tilt with Oregon.
USC vs Rutgers combo
- USC -13.5 1H
- Rutgers team total Over 17.5 points
- Rutgers +23.5
USC vs Rutgers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: USC -23.5 | Rutgers +23.5
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 (53%) | Under 59.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: USC 93% | Rutgers 7%
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USC vs Rutgers weather
Weather won't impact this game, with calm and clear conditions called for and a high of just 71 degrees.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
USC vs Rutgers trend to know
USC is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite of at least 21.5 points. Find more college football betting trends for USC vs. Rutgers.
How to watch USC vs Rutgers
| Location | SHI Stadium, Piscataway, N.J. |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
USC vs Rutgers latest injuries
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