The last two national champions meet today in a massive Big Ten showdown, and our Ohio State vs. Indiana AI picks expect Curt Cignetti’s team to have the last word again with kickoff set for noon ET (FOX) between the No. 4 Buckeyes and No. 5 Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind.
Our model projects a 24-23 Indiana win as part of our college football AI predictions for Week 7, putting us on Indiana +3.5 and Under 50.5. Below, we offer our AI picks for the best game markets with an anytime touchdown pick and compare our ATS pick with our Covers projections and expert pick for this matchup.
Ohio State vs Indiana AI picks
Win probability courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; odds may vary.
Ohio State vs Indiana AI prediction
SAT · 12 pm ET · FOX
Win probability based on marketMore analysis
Indiana’s run defense gives it a route to another close game. The Hoosiers rank sixth in defensive rushing success rate, while Ohio State sits 81st in yards per rush. If Indiana makes the Buckeyes lean on Julian Sayin, its pass rush can attack longer-yardage situations instead of defending the entire playbook. Our 24-23 forecast calls for an upset, but Indiana +3.5 also covers a field-goal loss. That cushion matters against an Ohio State passing attack capable of flipping the game with one explosive play.
Our projected total of 47 sits 3.5 points below the selected 50.5. The Under needs defensive stops to turn some promising possessions into field goals, especially with Jeremiah Smith threatening downfield. Geoff Clark’s Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction also backs Indiana +3.5, but his Over 49.5 goes the other way on the total. That is the clearest risk to our forecast: if both quarterbacks consistently create chunk gains, neither offense will need many sustained drives to push this beyond 50.
Ohio State vs Indiana AI touchdown pick
Ohio State vs Indiana picks comparison
Here’s how our AI spread pick compares with the Covers projections and Geoff Clark’s expert pick. Each selection retains its source’s published line; the pick boxes link to Kalshi.
| AI model | Covers projections | Covers expertBy Geoff Clark |
|---|---|---|
| IU+3.5 | IU+2.5 | IU+3.5 |
All three take Indiana with the points, but they do not all call for an upset. The Covers projections have Ohio State winning 26.88-24.63, compared with our 24-23 Indiana forecast.
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How our college football AI predictions work
We forecast college football scores with the project’s custom Bayesian model. It uses past game results, distinct ratings for each team’s offense and defense, home-field effects, and the scoring patterns found in college football. This matchup carries forward our published Week 7 forecast.
Each score projection is locked before we compare it with the selected full-game spread and total to derive the ATS and Over/Under picks. Market prices do not change the forecast. We retain the original Indiana +3.5 and Under 50.5 selections for this matchup.
Kalshi and ProphetX percentages reflect their markets, separate from our score forecast. The touchdown pick draws on player production and matchup analysis. We publicly track the published score predictions, ATS picks, and Over/Under selections against their original lines for every prediction each week.
