A Top 5 showdown in Bloomington puts my early Ohio State vs. Indiana predictions in the spotlight, with the Buckeyes laying 3.5 and a 50.5 total at noon ET on Oct. 18.
Memorial Stadium is hosting its first Top 5 matchup, giving this heavyweight rematch a historic backdrop.
Find more Week 7 angles on our college football picks page.
Ohio State vs Indiana predictions
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Early Ohio State vs Indiana spread pick: Indiana +3.5
Maybe I'm taking crazy pills, but the reigning college football champion Indiana Hoosiers +3.5 are good down to a pick 'em over the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Hoosiers are better in the two most predictive metrics for handicapping football: standard-down success rate and trench play. Per CollegeFootballData, Indiana has a higher net standard-down success rate and better line yards per snap on both sides of the ball.
Also, give me Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti over Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day in a big game. Cignetti is 6-2 straight-up (SU) and 5-3 against the spread (ATS) vs. top-10 opponents with a +13.8 spread differential, while Day is 18-11 SU and 13-15-2 ATS.
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Early Ohio State vs Indiana total pick: Over 50.5
It's Over 50.5, up to 51.5, or pass because these offenses outmatch their defenses. Hoosiers QB Josh Hoover and Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin rank first and second in the Big Ten in passer efficiency.
Sayin and All-American WR Jeremiah Smith are the best quarterback-receiver combo in the country, but Indiana has elite outside weapons, too.
Ohio State's defense ranks 104th nationally in sacks per game, so Hoover should have time to work through his progressions and attack downfield.
The Buckeyes also have an explosiveness edge. Per GameOnPaper, Indiana's defense ranks in the 45th percentile in explosive-play rate allowed, while Ohio State's offense grades in the 91st percentile.
My prediction is Indiana 31, Ohio State 24.
Ohio State vs Indiana odds
- Ohio State vs Indiana spread: Ohio State -3.5
- Ohio State vs Indiana moneyline: Ohio State 65%, Indiana 40%
- Ohio State vs Indiana Over/Under: 50.5
How to watch Ohio State vs Indiana
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026, 12 p.m. ET
- City: Bloomington, Ind.
- Venue: Memorial Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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