The Third Saturday in October brings another massive SEC showdown as No. 6 Alabama visits No. 14 Tennessee at Neyland Stadium this Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
The Crimson Tide are looking to bounce back from a heartbreaking loss to Georgia, while the Volunteers hope to defend their home turf against their bitter rivals.
See why our Alabama vs Tennessee expert picks are backing the Crimson Tide to cover the spread and expecting a defensive battle on Saturday, Oct. 17.
Alabama vs Tennessee expert picks for Saturday
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 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: Under 27.5 1H |
57% |
 Rob Paul: Alabama -7.5 |
52% |
 Colby Marchio: Alabama -7.5 |
52% |
 Chris Vasile: Under 50.5 |
49% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’s expert pick: First Half Under 27.5
Two questions...how much did the Georgia game last week take out of Alabama? Is Tennessee going to be good enough at QB?
I have serious doubts about both. Tennessee QB Faizon Brandon (No. 89 in QBR) was out last week, and George MacIntyre had a 10.3 QBR.
He will start again this week, and I don't expect the Tennessee offense to have much success.
On the other side, Alabama has allowed 8 sacks in the last two games and will be facing Tennessee DL Xavier Gilliam, arguably the best defensive player in the country.
Finally, Alabama will likely be without their starting center and their top WR Ryan Coleman-Williams. Points will be at a premium especially early.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Alabama -7.5
Despite losing by three to Georgia last week, Alabama looks like one of the best teams in the country, while Tennessee's lack of quality play at QB will be the death of it on the "Third Saturday in October."
The Volunteers are set to start George MacIntyre at QB for the second straight week after he managed just a 10.3 QBR against Arkansas last week. The Razorbacks are one of the worst teams in the Power Four, losing to their previous three Power Four opponents by an average of 29.3 points ... Tennessee won by just seven.
Although the Volunteers' defense has been strong in Jim Knowles' first season, their pass rush will only keep them in this game so long. Keelon Russell is one of the best dual-threat QBs in the country, ranking third nationally in QBR (90.0) and helping the Crimson Tide's offense rank top 20 in offensive success rate (50.1%).
The Tide are too well-rounded a team to slip up on the road against a Tennessee team with no passing game, and I like them to cover -9.5 or better.
Colby Marchio’s expert pick: Alabama -7.5
Keep it short and sweet. I don’t care that last week was a massive game for the Crimson Tide. The Tennessee Volunteers have yet to face a legitimate offense. Keelon Russell will be the most talented quarterback this Tennessee defense has faced, and he should be able to pick it apart through the air and with his legs.
Russell has endured one of the toughest defenses in the country. Now, he gets to take on one that has yet to be truly tested this season.
Plus, with George MacIntyre starting for the second straight week, does he have enough talent to take on this well-rounded Crimson Tide defensive unit? Doubtful.
Roll Tide.
Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Under 50.5
Everyone is looking at whether Alabama can cover a touchdown on the road. I'm more interested in whether Tennessee can contribute enough points to push this game over the total.
The Volunteers are averaging 34.7 points per game, but that season-long number disguises their biggest issue entering Saturday: quarterback George MacIntyre is making his second straight start after recording a 10.3 QBR against Arkansas. Alabama's defense allows roughly 100 rushing yards per game, so Tennessee can't assume DeSean Bishop will carry the offense on his own. If MacIntyre is forced into obvious passing situations, drives could end quickly.
Alabama has its own reasons for a lower-scoring afternoon. The Tide just lost a physical 20-17 game to Georgia, have allowed eight sacks in their last two contests, and could be missing both their starting center and top receiver. That's a difficult setup for Keelon Russell against a Tennessee defense with 25 sacks through six games. Xavier Gilliam alone has five.
I expect the Tide to control the game without needing a shootout, with Tennessee struggling to provide its share of the scoring.
Alabama vs Tennessee odds for Saturday
How to watch Alabama vs Tennessee
| Location | Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee |
| Date | Saturday, October 17, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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