We have a terrific Big Ten Championship Game rematch on tap this Saturday at Noon (FOX) when No. 4 Ohio State visits No. 5 Indiana.
See why our Ohio State vs. Indiana expert picks believe the Hoosiers are live underdogs on Saturday, Oct. 17.
Ohio State vs Indiana expert picks for today
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 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: Under 50.5 |
51% |
 Rob Paul: Indiana +3.5 |
51% |
 Colby Marchio: Ohio State ML |
61% |
 Geoff Clark: Indiana +3.5 |
51% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Under 50.5
Ohio State has played seven ranked opponents since the start of the 2025 season. Those seven games averaged just 37 total points, and all seven finished with 50 points or fewer. That includes last year’s Big Ten Championship game, when these teams combined for just 23 points.
Both teams play at a well-below-average tempo. After ranking above average in plays per minute during the non-conference slate, Ohio State has slowed things down in Big Ten play and now ranks 84th nationally in plays per minute. Meanwhile, Indiana ranks No. 113 in plays per minute.
Both defenses remain elite. Ohio State ranks No. 1 nationally, allowing just 4.0 yards per play. Indiana hasn't allowed an opponent to score more than 24 points in 22 straight games.
Two slow-tempo teams, great defenses, and a history of low-scoring games make this my favorite total of the week.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Indiana +3.5
This Big Ten Championship rematch should be a rock fight, and I like Indiana to cover +3.5 or better at home.
The Hoosiers' defense will pose a challenge for an Ohio State offense missing its best lineman, Austin Siereveld, with Indiana's front seven helping it rank top 25 nationally in havoc rate (19.1%), available yards percentage (37.5%), and success rate (37.7%).
If Indiana can limit Jeremiah Smith just enough, the Buckeyes don't have another star playmaker to lean on. Their run game has been inconsistent this season, and second-leading rusher Ja'Kobi Jackson is out for this game.
Meanwhile, Indiana has one of the best wide receiver and running back duos in the country. Charlie Beck and Nick Marsh (1,057 receiving yards and 14 TDs) and Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. (1,199 scrimmage yards and nine TDs) have IU ranked second in the country in net EPA per play and fifth in explosiveness (1.407).
It might take just a few big plays from Josh Hoover and Indiana to keep this game tight.
Colby Marchio’s expert pick: Ohio State moneyline
As a big Curt Cignetti guy, it's hard for me to bet against him and the Indiana Hoosiers, but who have they played to prepare themselves for this Ohio State team? Nebraska? Northwestern? Those are the two best teams they've had to endure this season.
Last week in Lincoln, the Hoosiers needed a 14-point fourth quarter to secure the win over the Cornhuskers, as they were clearly looking ahead to this week’s matchup.
Meanwhile, at least Ohio State was challenged by Texas in Week 2. The Buckeyes lost, but covered, which is what great teams do.
Since that narrow loss to the Longhorns, Ohio State has been steamrolling everyone in its path, winning by an average of 31 points per game.
I trust Ryan Day and his boys to go on the road and come out on top.
Geoff Clark’s expert pick: Indiana +3.5
I'm locking in a trade on the Indiana Hoosiers at +3.5 over the Ohio State Buckeyes, and would play them down to a pick'em.
Indiana has a strength-on-weakness edge over Ohio State in pass protection, and the Hoosiers have better standard-down success and line-yards-per-snap differentials.
Meanwhile, Indiana's defense can make the Buckeyes one-dimensional on offense. The Hoosiers rank sixth in the country in defensive rushing success rate, and Ohio State is only 81st in yards per rush.
Ohio State vs Indiana odds for today
How to watch Ohio State vs Indiana
| Location | Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Ind. |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026 |
| Kickoff | Noon ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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