My White Sox vs. Astros prediction and MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 29, back the Chicago White Sox as a 46% underdog.
Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Round is an interesting setup, with the Houston Astros hosting the White Sox and both teams opting for bullpen days. It will be interesting to see how that strategy plays out for both clubs.
First pitch is at 5 p.m. ET at Daikin Park on Peacock.
Who will win White Sox vs Astros today: White Sox
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Play to 49%.
Despite the Houston Astros throwing out AJ Blubaugh as an opener, the Chicago White Sox are in a good spot to jump out early against the right-handed reliever. In September, the 26-year-old owns a 7.71 ERA across 11 2/3 innings. Over his last seven appearances, he’s allowing 2.70 HR/9 with a 70% elevation rate, while opposing hitters own a .303 xBA and .600 xSLG.
The White Sox have slowly started coming out of their late-season slump, posting a 112 wRC+, .332 wOBA and .736 OPS, along with a nearly 12% walk rate and 43.2% hard-hit rate over their last 12 games.
Chicago is attacking Game 1 similarly to Houston, using Hagen Smith as an opener before turning to Erick Fedde or Davis Martin for the bulk of the work.
Hopefully, it’s Fedde. The right-hander has been reliable late in the season, posting a 3.45 ERA over his last five road starts while limiting hitters to a 30% hard-hit rate and 8% barrel rate.
Regardless of who pitches, the White Sox bats are waking up at the right time. If they can tee off against a struggling opener, I like them as a dog in Game 1.
COVERS INTEL: The White Sox own a 120 wRC+ and .759 OPS over their last 12 road games, while posting a nearly 12% walk rate and 44% hard-hit rate.
White Sox vs Astros Over/Under pick: Over 7.5
Runs should not be at a premium tonight. Take this up to 8.5.
Both the White Sox and Astros have been heating up at the right time. The market thinking this will be a low-scoring game is extremely interesting because both teams are very capable of going Over 7.5 by themselves.
Houston maintained a 117 wRC+, .338 wOBA, and .776 OPS during its final week, while the White Sox had a 131 wRC+, .358 wOBA, and .806 OPS in that same stretch to close out the season.
This matchup comes down to who can score the other team to death.
Chicago's bullpen has posted a 3.55 ERA and 4.59 xERA over its last 21 games while allowing a 42% hard-hit rate during that span. Houston's bullpen has been very inconsistent, but with how the White Sox have been swinging the bat, it will have a lot on its plate.
White Sox vs Astros home run prediction: Munetaka Murakami
The South Side slugger has been slowly snapping out of his late-season slump, sporting a .500 SLG, .568 xSLG and .294 ISO, all while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and a nearly 28% barrel rate over his last 10 games.
Of Munetaka Murakami’s last 10 batted balls, six have had an exit velocity above 102.3 mph, with only three going for extra bases. Hitting the ball that hard will eventually find the bleachers.
With Blubaugh being 51% fastballs and Murakami feasting on them all season, this is a great spot to back the slugger at such a great price.
- 2026 Record: 536-1063, +3.6 units
- Home Run picks: 134-461, +28.7 units
White Sox vs Astros weather
White Sox vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: White Sox 46% | Astros 54%
- Run line: White Sox +1.5 (63%) | Astros -1.5 (38%)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (56%) | Under 7.5 (44%)
White Sox vs Astros trend
The White Sox have covered the run line in nine of their last 13 games (+5.95 Units / 38% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Astros.
How to watch White Sox vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, Texas |
| Date | Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026 |
| First pitch | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| White Sox starting pitcher | Hagen Smith (3-3, 1.29 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | AJ Blubaugh (5-3, 3.66 ERA) |
White Sox vs Astros latest injuries
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