Playoff baseball is officially here and our MLB expert picks are along for the ride on Tuesday, Sept. 29.
Our analysts are eyeing the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies to win straight up, while the Over is the most appealing play in San Diego tonight.
It's all part of our full slate of MLB picks as the postseason gets underway today.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Jon Metler: NYY ML |
56% |
 Neil Parker: PHI ML |
37% |
 Joe Osborne: CHC/SD o7.5 |
47% |
 Dustin Saracini: BOS/NYY u6.5 |
54% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
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Jon Metler's expert pick: Yankees moneyline
Price: 56¢ at Polymarket
Give me the New York Yankees in Game 1 at 56% on the moneyline at Polymarket, as I price them closer to a 60% favorite against the Boston Red Sox. With the probability gap on the Yankees and Cam Schlittler on the mound, I'm gladly hitting the button after being on the wrong end of his postseason masterclass against Boston last year.
Payton Tolle is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which can be a dangerous profile at Yankee Stadium with the short porch in right field. While Tolle is a lefty and New York is expected to feature a mostly left-handed lineup, he didn't dominate left-handed hitters this season. Lefties posted a .704 OPS against Tolle, compared to just .624 for right-handed hitters, making the Yankees' southpaw-heavy lineup less of a mismatch than it might initially seem.
Check out Dustin Saracini's full Yankees vs. Red Sox predictions for Game 1.
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC
Neil Parker's expert pick: Braves moneyline
Price: 64¢ at Polymarket
With the Philadelphia Phillies rotation taxed after battling to their final game to secure a postseason berth, I’d recommend the Atlanta Braves moneyline to 68%.
Additionally, Braves lefty Chris Sale has posted a 3.31 xERA and 3.29 xFIP through eight starts against the Phillies over the past three years. He also just ranked third in xFIP while allowing the eighth-lowest squared-up contact rate among qualified pitchers in 2026.
Philly is expected to counter with a bullpen game featuring bulk work from lefty Jesus Luzardo and righty Andrew Painter.
Luzardo returned from a shoulder injury for a relief inning Sunday, while Painter sports a discouraging 4.60 xERA and 4.55 xFIP on the road.
This gives the Braves a sizable starting-pitching edge in Game 1.
Check out Neil's full Phillies vs. Braves predictions for Game 1.
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Cubs vs Padres Over 7.5
Price: 47¢ at Polymarket
Both lineups enter the playoffs in strong form, and each has had success against the opposing starter.
The San Diego Padres rank second in OPS over the past two weeks and first against lefties. They have a combined .839 OPS in 108 at-bats against Matthew Boyd and smacked him around for eight earned runs in two games this season.
The Chicago Cubs have a .906 OPS in 33 at-bats against Michael King, while their offense has been especially strong on the road and against righties.
Both bullpens rank in the bottom half of MLB in ERA over the past two weeks, giving these offenses a chance to add runs late. The Over hit in five of their six regular-season meetings, and I’m backing another high-scoring game.
Check out Todd Cordell's full Cubs vs. Padres predictions for Game 1.
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Peacock
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Red Sox vs Yankees Under 6.5
Price: 54¢ at Polymarket
We have two aces on the mound who have dominated this matchup all year, and I would comfortably play this to 57%.
Schlittler started against the Red Sox four times across the 2026 MLB season: to say he dominated would be an understatement. Over 24 1/3 innings, he posted a 0.74 ERA and struck out 27.
Yes, Schlittler is the likely Cy Young this season, but Tolle is no slouch — his .199 xBA, 36% chase rate, and 28% K rate this season are among the best in baseball.
When you tie in their walk rate (both are issuing the free pass at just a 6% clip), each offense will have to earn it. No matter which angle you attack this one at, it smells like an Under.
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC
More MLB picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| CHW ML | 47% |
| Read analysis in our White Sox vs. Astros predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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