The final chapter of the MLB season is here, and with it comes the most exhilarating time of the year: the postseason.
The air is crisp, the leaves are turning brown, and the pressure is on for 12 teams chasing a trip to the promised land. Only one team will come out on top, and the journey begins with the Wild Card Series and my MLB moneyline picks.
Some teams have started to heat up over the final few weeks of the regular season, while others have gone ice cold. Can those cold teams turn things around when the lights get brighter in the first round? This writer has his doubts.
Before we dive in, make sure to check out all of my plays, along with those from our other brilliant writers, for all of our MLB picks.
MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 29
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Phillies
Braves
White Sox
Astros
Red Sox
Yankees
Cubs
PadresPrices courtesy of Polymarket as of [Sept. 28, 2026].
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 29
Phillies vs Braves: Braves
Braves win probability: 64%
Thinking a team will start to heat up once the calendar hits October is pretty foolish. I am SHOUTING at YOU, Phillies fans. Over their last 21 games, they have progressively gotten worse, with the most shocking thing they have done well being their ability to avoid striking out. However, they are not generating many hard-hit balls, posting just a 34% hard-hit rate and 4.6% barrel rate.
That lineup now draws Atlanta Braves star left-hander Chris Sale, who is coming into the postseason on fire. Over his last five outings, he owns a 2.14 ERA, 2.40 xERA, 2.80 xFIP and a 30.5% strikeout rate.
On top of that, the Braves' bats have come alive over their last 12 games, posting a 121 wRC+, .343 wOBA and 10% barrel rate.
Overall, I love the Braves to come out of this series.
White Sox vs Astros: White Sox
White Sox win probability: 45%
Shockingly, the only underdog worth taking a look at out of all of the Wild Card games is the Chicago White Sox, mainly because of how they have completely snapped out of the cold streak they endured over the last month-plus.
Over the White Sox's last 12 games, they own a 112 wRC+ and .332 wOBA while generating a 43.2% hard-hit rate. Zoom in to the last week, and they have maintained a 131 wRC+, .806 OPS, and 48% hard-hit rate.
With star rookie Munetaka Murakami slowly snapping out of his drought, the White Sox could be a scrappy dog in this wild card series. In his last 10 games, the South Side slugger owns a .500 SLG and .568 xSLG while generating a nearly 30% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate.
The Houston Astros obviously have the future AL MVP in Yordan Alvarez, who has been heating up at the right time as well.
Red Sox vs Yankees: Yankees
Yankees win probability: 60%
Prior to doing any research, I slightly leaned toward the Boston Red Sox to come out of this series. But how is anyone going to get excited about a team posting a 75 wRC+, .282 wOBA, nearly 26% strikeout rate, and 6.3% barrel rate over its last 12 games?
The way Cam Schlittler has been pitching this season, especially over his last five outings, the New York Yankees can continue to be half-awake at the plate and still come out on top in this matchup. The young star owns a 1.20 ERA, 2.12 xERA, 2.21 xFIP and 34.5% strikeout rate while allowing just a 4.6% barrel rate over his last five starts.
With the Red Sox likely sending left-hander Payton Tolle to the mound for Game 1, the Yankees have enough lefty killers to secure the win in this spot.
Cubs vs Padres: Padres
Padres win probability: 55%
The key to success for the San Diego Padres in this series will be getting to the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen and managing Chicago’s biggest bats, mainly Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Luckily for the Padres, the Cubs have gone cold in the final week of the season, owning a 96 wRC+, .315 wOBA and .141 ISO while generating a hard-hit rate of just 38.5%. San Diego, over its last 12 games, owns a 137 wRC+, .362 wOBA and .833 OPS.
Michael King takes the bump for the Padres in Game 1. The veteran right-hander has been lights-out at home and should continue his dominance if the Cubs’ bats are still cold come first pitch. Over his last five home starts, King sports a 1.74 ERA and 3.09 xERA while limiting opposing hitters to a hard-hit rate of just 23% and a barrel rate of 6.1%.
I like the Padres to come out on top in Game 1 and in this series as well.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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