The postseason has officially arrived! ⚾️
Let’s kick off the MLB playoffs by cashing some nukes. Here are my favorite home run props and predictions for Game 1 of the Wild Card round.
Find out why I’m backing George Lombard Jr, Munetaka Murakami, and Christian Walker to go yard in my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 29.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 George Lombard Jr. |
14% |
 Munetaka Murakami |
26% |
 Christian Walker |
19% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 37.28x |
Home run prediction: George Lombard Jr.
You can also snag the future star shortstop of the New York Yankees to record a hit at -120.
Not only does George Lombard Jr. enter with the highest matchup rating on Batters-Box, but he's been seeing the ball very well over his last 10 games, sporting a .643 SLG and a .620 xSLG with a barrel rate above 15%. On top of that, in 28 at-bats against left-handed pitching, he owns a .292 BA, .982 OPS, and .333 ISO.
Boston Red Sox left-hander and fan favorite Payton Tolle has allowed a 35.6% hard-hit rate and a nearly 70% elevation rate vs. right-handed hitters when away from home.
For the price, and considering how well Lombard enters the postseason seeing the baseball, he is well worth dabbling on, but don't settle for much less.
For more on this game, check out Dustin Saracini's Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions.
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBC, Peacock
Home run prediction: Munetaka Murakami
The South Side slugger has been slowly coming out of his second-half funk. In Munetaka Murakami’s last 10 games, he's maintained a .500 SLG, .568 xSLG, and .294 ISO, all while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and a near-28% barrel rate.
Of Murakami’s last 10 batted balls, six have had an exit velocity above 102.3 mph, with only three going for extra bases. Hitting the ball that hard will eventually lead to dingers.
The Chicago White Sox slugger draws Houston Astros opener AJ Blubaugh, who leans heavily on his fastball (51%). Luckily for us, it is one of his worst pitches.
Murakami owns a 65% hard-hit rate and 26% barrel rate against fastballs this season. He also has a .539 SLG, .908 OPS, and 165 wRC+ against them.
Like Lombard, Murakami’s hit price is hovering below -120 if you want to play the bare minimum. But we're getting a ton of dinger value on one of the most dangerous hitters in the White Sox lineup.
Colby has more analysis in his White Sox vs. Astros predictions.
- Time: 5 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock, NBCSN
Home run prediction: Christian Walker
Play to 20%.
Astros veteran Christian Walker has been seeing the ball better than most players entering the postseason. Over his final 10 games of the regular season, Walker posted a .605 SLG, .342 ISO, 25% ground-ball rate, and nearly 20% barrel rate.
Following the White Sox opener, it will likely be veteran right-hander Erick Fedde, who has allowed his last 30 right-handed hitters to post a 55%+ hard-hit rate, 10% barrel rate, and 75% elevation rate.
With Yordan Alvarez always getting the limelight, this is a great spot to back Walker at a much better price, especially with little reason to expect an intentional walk.
- Time: 5 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Peacock, NBCSN
- HR picks: 134-461, +28.7 units
Best home run combo for September 29
| George Lombard Jr. |
Trade Now 37.28x |
| Munetaka Murakami |
|
| Christian Walker |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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